Wall St Engine
Bernstein Downgrades $TGT to Underperform from Market Perform, Lowers PT to $82 from $97
Analyst comments: "The going is getting tough for Target. In the short term, credit card data paints a bleak picture for Q1, dampened by poor weather, weak consumer sentiment, and a diversity, equity, and inclusion-related strike in March. That’s before tariffs enter the frame, which means that Target will likely have to lower guidance for the full year.
More than a tactical play on these short-term dynamics, our downgrade is predicated on structural issues. Long-term, Target faces a difficult trade-off between stimulating top-line growth and maintaining margins. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely to achieve both and, increasingly, neither.
Target is a structural share donor in key discretionary categories, impairing its earnings power. Bulls argue Target is under-earning and poised to capture a rebound in consumer discretionary spending. Instead, our analysis points to share losses in core categories such as Home (approximately 90 basis points) and Apparel (approximately 50 basis points). It is our view that Target is losing out to digital and off-price competitors. Discretionary spending will return, but maybe not as much at Target."
Analyst: Zhihan Ma
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Bernstein Downgrades $TGT to Underperform from Market Perform, Lowers PT to $82 from $97
Analyst comments: "The going is getting tough for Target. In the short term, credit card data paints a bleak picture for Q1, dampened by poor weather, weak consumer sentiment, and a diversity, equity, and inclusion-related strike in March. That’s before tariffs enter the frame, which means that Target will likely have to lower guidance for the full year.
More than a tactical play on these short-term dynamics, our downgrade is predicated on structural issues. Long-term, Target faces a difficult trade-off between stimulating top-line growth and maintaining margins. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely to achieve both and, increasingly, neither.
Target is a structural share donor in key discretionary categories, impairing its earnings power. Bulls argue Target is under-earning and poised to capture a rebound in consumer discretionary spending. Instead, our analysis points to share losses in core categories such as Home (approximately 90 basis points) and Apparel (approximately 50 basis points). It is our view that Target is losing out to digital and off-price competitors. Discretionary spending will return, but maybe not as much at Target."
Analyst: Zhihan Ma
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Upgrades $HLT and $MAR to Buy from Hold, Raises PT on $HLT to $296 from $228 and on $MAR to $303 from $226
Analyst comments: "We are upgrading Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide, as we believe the strength of their business models is positioned to grow through the currently uncertain business climate. Therefore, peak valuation multiples—17.5x for Marriott and 19.5x for Hilton—are appropriate, with shares currently trading at mid-range levels of 15.1x and 16.7x, respectively.
The ongoing shift from cyclical revenue per available room (RevPAR) to durable mid-single-digit net unit growth (NUG) as the core earnings growth driver now bears greater visibility. This supports long-term fee, EBITDA, and free cash flow growth at high single-digit to low double-digit compound annual rates.
The earnings growth and durability of both companies justify higher valuations. Despite economic uncertainty, both have demonstrated unmatched growth durability through past volatility, including the COVID period. NUG has remained the core model driver even amid anemic, volatile RevPAR since 2017. Historical data confirms that these companies have consistently delivered mid-single-digit NUG on highly cyclical RevPAR."
Analyst: David Katz
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Jefferies Upgrades $HLT and $MAR to Buy from Hold, Raises PT on $HLT to $296 from $228 and on $MAR to $303 from $226
Analyst comments: "We are upgrading Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide, as we believe the strength of their business models is positioned to grow through the currently uncertain business climate. Therefore, peak valuation multiples—17.5x for Marriott and 19.5x for Hilton—are appropriate, with shares currently trading at mid-range levels of 15.1x and 16.7x, respectively.
The ongoing shift from cyclical revenue per available room (RevPAR) to durable mid-single-digit net unit growth (NUG) as the core earnings growth driver now bears greater visibility. This supports long-term fee, EBITDA, and free cash flow growth at high single-digit to low double-digit compound annual rates.
The earnings growth and durability of both companies justify higher valuations. Despite economic uncertainty, both have demonstrated unmatched growth durability through past volatility, including the COVID period. NUG has remained the core model driver even amid anemic, volatile RevPAR since 2017. Historical data confirms that these companies have consistently delivered mid-single-digit NUG on highly cyclical RevPAR."
Analyst: David Katz
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Wall St Engine
BE ran the numbers on the new US-China tariff deal and found it cuts the stagflation risk in half. With the new rates, the avg. effective tariff on all U.S. imports drops to 10.4% from 20.3%. Additionally, Based on Fed trade war models, that could mean a 1.5% drag on GDP and a 0.9% bump in core PCE over the next 2–3 years.
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BE ran the numbers on the new US-China tariff deal and found it cuts the stagflation risk in half. With the new rates, the avg. effective tariff on all U.S. imports drops to 10.4% from 20.3%. Additionally, Based on Fed trade war models, that could mean a 1.5% drag on GDP and a 0.9% bump in core PCE over the next 2–3 years.
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Wall St Engine
UK's 🇬🇧 PM Keir Starmer’s new immigration plan will scrap the current 5-year path to citizenship and extend it to up to 10 years. Only migrants who show strong contributions—like working in the NHS or other public services—can qualify earlier.
The goal: bring net migration down from the current 728,000 level and respond to voter frustration. Skilled workers will also face tougher English tests, needing to speak fluently for academic and professional settings. Starmer says the system has been “designed to permit abuse” and this shift is about restoring control—something promised by Brexit but never delivered.
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UK's 🇬🇧 PM Keir Starmer’s new immigration plan will scrap the current 5-year path to citizenship and extend it to up to 10 years. Only migrants who show strong contributions—like working in the NHS or other public services—can qualify earlier.
The goal: bring net migration down from the current 728,000 level and respond to voter frustration. Skilled workers will also face tougher English tests, needing to speak fluently for academic and professional settings. Starmer says the system has been “designed to permit abuse” and this shift is about restoring control—something promised by Brexit but never delivered.
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Wall St Engine
$AAPL CONSIDERS IPHONE PRICE HIKES — BUT WON’T BLAME TARIFFS:
Per WSJ, Apple is weighing raising prices on this fall’s iPhone 17 lineup. A 20% levy tied to fentanyl policy still applies to smartphones. Most Pro models are still made in China, keeping Apple exposed. https://t.co/dXPQ5is72t
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$AAPL CONSIDERS IPHONE PRICE HIKES — BUT WON’T BLAME TARIFFS:
Per WSJ, Apple is weighing raising prices on this fall’s iPhone 17 lineup. A 20% levy tied to fentanyl policy still applies to smartphones. Most Pro models are still made in China, keeping Apple exposed. https://t.co/dXPQ5is72t
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Wall St Engine
Trump: DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS! Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! https://t.co/dPT1rgB3LW
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Trump: DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS! Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! https://t.co/dPT1rgB3LW
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Wall St Engine
DA Davidson Maintains Buy Rating on $NBIS, Raises PT to $35 from $30
Analyst comments: "On Friday, The Information reported that ClickHouse is targeting a new funding round at a $6 billion valuation, with Khosla Ventures expected to lead. Nebius Group holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, a company it originally founded and later spun off in 2021, making this development a meaningful uplift to Nebius' sum-of-the-parts valuation, with its ClickHouse stake increasing from $560 million to $1.68 billion (pre-dilution). We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target from $30 to $35 based on incremental $5 per share from ClickHouse as well as higher comparable valuation to $CRWV."
Analyst: Alex Platt
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DA Davidson Maintains Buy Rating on $NBIS, Raises PT to $35 from $30
Analyst comments: "On Friday, The Information reported that ClickHouse is targeting a new funding round at a $6 billion valuation, with Khosla Ventures expected to lead. Nebius Group holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, a company it originally founded and later spun off in 2021, making this development a meaningful uplift to Nebius' sum-of-the-parts valuation, with its ClickHouse stake increasing from $560 million to $1.68 billion (pre-dilution). We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target from $30 to $35 based on incremental $5 per share from ClickHouse as well as higher comparable valuation to $CRWV."
Analyst: Alex Platt
$NBIS is getting more interesting: ClickHouse is raising at a $6B valuation, valuing NBIS’s 28% stake at ~$1.68B — that’s 25% of its market cap. Add Bezos backing Toloka and Avride now seeking funding, and the sum-of-the-parts story here is quietly building real weight. tweet
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Wall St Engine
Stifel Keeps Buy Rating on $RIVN, Raises PT to $18 from $16
Analyst comments: "While near-term headwinds persist, we believe Rivian is making solid progress toward several key milestones including delivering positive gross profit in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, pursuing a positive gross profit target for 2025, reducing costs, and launching the critical R2. We believe Rivian has sufficient liquidity to fund operations through the launch of R2 supported by its balance sheet, and with investments from Volkswagen and the DOE loan, would have sufficient capital to fund the ramp of the midsize platform in Georgia. We believe the long-term story is intact, and we are reiterating our Buy with an $18 target price based on our DCF."
Analyst: Stephen Gengaro
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Stifel Keeps Buy Rating on $RIVN, Raises PT to $18 from $16
Analyst comments: "While near-term headwinds persist, we believe Rivian is making solid progress toward several key milestones including delivering positive gross profit in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, pursuing a positive gross profit target for 2025, reducing costs, and launching the critical R2. We believe Rivian has sufficient liquidity to fund operations through the launch of R2 supported by its balance sheet, and with investments from Volkswagen and the DOE loan, would have sufficient capital to fund the ramp of the midsize platform in Georgia. We believe the long-term story is intact, and we are reiterating our Buy with an $18 target price based on our DCF."
Analyst: Stephen Gengaro
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Wall St Engine
DA DAVIDSON ON $GOOGL (NEUTRAL; PT $160): TIME TO BREAK IT UP AND UNLEASH SHAREHOLDER VALUE'
Analyst comments: "Investors want a big-bang breakup, not isolated spin-offs. We believe the company is headed toward an eventual passive-aggressive spin-off of Network and possibly Chrome/Android to appease the DOJ, likely only after a prolonged delay. The debate on Search will not improve, and sum-of-the-parts only works if the company is willing to act. The Search discussion is largely irrelevant for now, as it may not conclude soon. Google Search ad revenue growth could persist even after the business is impaired, as advertisers currently lack alternatives. Only after Apple changes its default settings and ChatGPT introduces ads will we begin to see revenue impact—which could take several quarters. This means the overhang will remain. By maintaining the conglomerate structure, management is effectively limiting all its businesses to the 16x Search multiple, rather than allowing them to trade at higher multiples like those of Netflix, Azure, The Trade Desk, or Tesla."
Analyst: Gil Luria
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DA DAVIDSON ON $GOOGL (NEUTRAL; PT $160): TIME TO BREAK IT UP AND UNLEASH SHAREHOLDER VALUE'
Analyst comments: "Investors want a big-bang breakup, not isolated spin-offs. We believe the company is headed toward an eventual passive-aggressive spin-off of Network and possibly Chrome/Android to appease the DOJ, likely only after a prolonged delay. The debate on Search will not improve, and sum-of-the-parts only works if the company is willing to act. The Search discussion is largely irrelevant for now, as it may not conclude soon. Google Search ad revenue growth could persist even after the business is impaired, as advertisers currently lack alternatives. Only after Apple changes its default settings and ChatGPT introduces ads will we begin to see revenue impact—which could take several quarters. This means the overhang will remain. By maintaining the conglomerate structure, management is effectively limiting all its businesses to the 16x Search multiple, rather than allowing them to trade at higher multiples like those of Netflix, Azure, The Trade Desk, or Tesla."
Analyst: Gil Luria
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Wall St Engine
$MNDY | monday. com Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $282.3M vs. $276M est. 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.10 vs. $0.70 est. 🟢
🔹 Customers >$100K ARR: 1,328, up +46% y/y
FY25 Outlook:
🔹 Revenue: $1.22B–$1.23B (Est. $1.21B) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Op Income: $144M–$150M (Prior: $134M–$142M)
🔹 Adj FCF: $310M–$316M (FCF Margin: 25%–26%)
Q2 Outlook:
🔹 Revenue: $292M–$294M (Est. $294.3M) 🟡
🔹 Non-GAAP Op Income: $32M–$34M (Margin: 11%–12%)
Key Commentary:
🔸 Record operating profit and FCF
🔸 Net dollar retention: 117% for >$100K customers
🔸 Strong AI feature adoption across platform
🔸 CEO: “Outstanding start to 2025... multi-product platform driving momentum”
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$MNDY | monday. com Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $282.3M vs. $276M est. 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.10 vs. $0.70 est. 🟢
🔹 Customers >$100K ARR: 1,328, up +46% y/y
FY25 Outlook:
🔹 Revenue: $1.22B–$1.23B (Est. $1.21B) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Op Income: $144M–$150M (Prior: $134M–$142M)
🔹 Adj FCF: $310M–$316M (FCF Margin: 25%–26%)
Q2 Outlook:
🔹 Revenue: $292M–$294M (Est. $294.3M) 🟡
🔹 Non-GAAP Op Income: $32M–$34M (Margin: 11%–12%)
Key Commentary:
🔸 Record operating profit and FCF
🔸 Net dollar retention: 117% for >$100K customers
🔸 Strong AI feature adoption across platform
🔸 CEO: “Outstanding start to 2025... multi-product platform driving momentum”
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