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As the Fed stuck with the “wait and see” stance throughout the conf, Polymarket odds currently show just a 15% chance of no rate cuts in 2025.
Both CME FedWatch and Polymarket are still leaning toward 3 cuts by year-end. https://t.co/J7QUFnS15a
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As the Fed stuck with the “wait and see” stance throughout the conf, Polymarket odds currently show just a 15% chance of no rate cuts in 2025.
Both CME FedWatch and Polymarket are still leaning toward 3 cuts by year-end. https://t.co/J7QUFnS15a
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Wall St Engine
Gilead Sciences $GILD plans to invest $11B in U.S. R&D and manufacturing, part of a broader $43B economic impact over five years. The move includes new facilities, tech upgrades, & will create around 800 direct & 2,200 indirect jobs by 2028. GILD has already invested $15B in the past decade.
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Gilead Sciences $GILD plans to invest $11B in U.S. R&D and manufacturing, part of a broader $43B economic impact over five years. The move includes new facilities, tech upgrades, & will create around 800 direct & 2,200 indirect jobs by 2028. GILD has already invested $15B in the past decade.
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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)
$SPY +0.44% 🟩
$QQQ +0.39% 🟩
$DJI +0.70% 🟩
$IWM +0.32% 🟩
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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)
$SPY +0.44% 🟩
$QQQ +0.39% 🟩
$DJI +0.70% 🟩
$IWM +0.32% 🟩
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)
$SPY +0.21% 🟩
$QQQ flat ⬜
$DJI +0.39% 🟩
$IWM +0.47% 🟩 tweet
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$MELI | MercadoLibre Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $5.93B (Est. $5.52B) 🟢; UP +37% YoY | +64% FX-neutral
🔹 EPS: $9.74 (Est. $8.27) 🟢
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; UP +43% YoY |
🔹 GMV: $13.3B; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Items Sold: 492M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Fintech Monthly Active Users: 64M; UP +31% YoY
Segment Highlights
Commerce
🔸 GMV: $13.3B; +17% USD | +40% FXN
🔹 Brazil GMV: +10% USD | +30% FXN
🔹 Mexico GMV: +14% USD | +23% FXN
🔹 Argentina GMV: +77% USD | +126% FXN
🔹 Items Sold: +28% YoY; led by +65% YoY in Supermarket category
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; +25% YoY
🔸 Fulfillment penetration in Brazil: surpassed 60% in March
🔸 Cost per order declined YoY in Brazil, Mexico, Chile
Advertising
🔹 Revenue Growth: +50% YoY FX-neutral
🔸 Display share of Ads revenue up nearly 10ppts YoY
🔸 Mercado Play app launched on smart TVs—70M+ addressable devices
Fintech / Mercado Pago
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; +43% USD | +72% FXN
🔹 TPV Acquiring: $40.3B; +32% USD | +59% FXN
🔹 Credit Portfolio: $7.8B; +75% YoY
🔸 Brazil contributed +$800M QoQ to credit portfolio
🔹 15–90 Day NPL: 8.2%; stable YoY
🔹 NIMAL Spread: 22.7% (vs. 31.5% YoY); QoQ contraction due to seasonality and credit mix
🔸 Strong ecosystem stickiness from deposits and credit use
🔸 New merchant savings pot in Brazil pays 100% of benchmark rate
Geographic Performance (FX-neutral Revenue Growth YoY)
🔹 Argentina: +184%
🔹 Mexico: +51%
🔹 Brazil: +41%
🔹 Commerce Segment: +57%
🔹 Fintech Segment: +73%
🔹 Total MELI: +64%
Other Metrics
🔹 Income from Operations: $763M; UP +45% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 12.9%
🔹 Net Income: $494M; Margin 8.3%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $7M
🔹 CapEx: $256M
🔹 Depreciation & Amortization: $172M
🔹 Net Payment Transactions: 3.44B; +42% YoY
🔹 Acquiring TPV Growth:
🔸 Brazil: ~30% FXN
🔸 Mexico: ~50% FXN
🔸 Argentina: +144% FXN | +93% USD
Management Commentary
🔸 “Argentina’s rebound drove record growth, balancing strategic investments in Brazil and Mexico.”
🔸 “We are scaling Supermarket and Payments, improving UX, and reinforcing ecosystem flywheels.”
🔸 “The launch of Mercado Play and expansion of Display Ads strengthen our long-term ad monetization roadmap.”
🔸 “Credit growth remains robust and disciplined, with a stable risk profile and improving first-payment default rates in Brazil.”
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$MELI | MercadoLibre Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $5.93B (Est. $5.52B) 🟢; UP +37% YoY | +64% FX-neutral
🔹 EPS: $9.74 (Est. $8.27) 🟢
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; UP +43% YoY |
🔹 GMV: $13.3B; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Items Sold: 492M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Fintech Monthly Active Users: 64M; UP +31% YoY
Segment Highlights
Commerce
🔸 GMV: $13.3B; +17% USD | +40% FXN
🔹 Brazil GMV: +10% USD | +30% FXN
🔹 Mexico GMV: +14% USD | +23% FXN
🔹 Argentina GMV: +77% USD | +126% FXN
🔹 Items Sold: +28% YoY; led by +65% YoY in Supermarket category
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; +25% YoY
🔸 Fulfillment penetration in Brazil: surpassed 60% in March
🔸 Cost per order declined YoY in Brazil, Mexico, Chile
Advertising
🔹 Revenue Growth: +50% YoY FX-neutral
🔸 Display share of Ads revenue up nearly 10ppts YoY
🔸 Mercado Play app launched on smart TVs—70M+ addressable devices
Fintech / Mercado Pago
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; +43% USD | +72% FXN
🔹 TPV Acquiring: $40.3B; +32% USD | +59% FXN
🔹 Credit Portfolio: $7.8B; +75% YoY
🔸 Brazil contributed +$800M QoQ to credit portfolio
🔹 15–90 Day NPL: 8.2%; stable YoY
🔹 NIMAL Spread: 22.7% (vs. 31.5% YoY); QoQ contraction due to seasonality and credit mix
🔸 Strong ecosystem stickiness from deposits and credit use
🔸 New merchant savings pot in Brazil pays 100% of benchmark rate
Geographic Performance (FX-neutral Revenue Growth YoY)
🔹 Argentina: +184%
🔹 Mexico: +51%
🔹 Brazil: +41%
🔹 Commerce Segment: +57%
🔹 Fintech Segment: +73%
🔹 Total MELI: +64%
Other Metrics
🔹 Income from Operations: $763M; UP +45% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 12.9%
🔹 Net Income: $494M; Margin 8.3%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $7M
🔹 CapEx: $256M
🔹 Depreciation & Amortization: $172M
🔹 Net Payment Transactions: 3.44B; +42% YoY
🔹 Acquiring TPV Growth:
🔸 Brazil: ~30% FXN
🔸 Mexico: ~50% FXN
🔸 Argentina: +144% FXN | +93% USD
Management Commentary
🔸 “Argentina’s rebound drove record growth, balancing strategic investments in Brazil and Mexico.”
🔸 “We are scaling Supermarket and Payments, improving UX, and reinforcing ecosystem flywheels.”
🔸 “The launch of Mercado Play and expansion of Display Ads strengthen our long-term ad monetization roadmap.”
🔸 “Credit growth remains robust and disciplined, with a stable risk profile and improving first-payment default rates in Brazil.”
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$ARM Q4'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.24B (Est. $1.23B) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.55 (Est. $0.53) 🟢; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $655M (Est. $621.8M) 🟢; +68% YoY
FY26 Guide
🔹 Revenue: $3.94B–$4.04B (Est. $4.91B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.56–$1.64 (Est. $2.03) 🔴
Q1'26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $1.00B–$1.10B (Est. $1.10B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.30–$0.38 (Est. $0.42) 🔴
🔹 Adj. OpEx: ~$625M (vs. $566M in Q4 FY25)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Royalty Revenue: $607M (Est. $567.7M) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔹 Licensing & Other Revenue: $634M; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 98.4% (vs. 97.2% YoY)
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 52.8% (vs. 42.1% YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $258M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP): $163M
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.83B
🔹 R&D Headcount: +18% YoY (6,943 engineers)
CEO Rene Haas Commentary
🔸 “Arm delivered record-breaking results for both Q4 and the full fiscal year. We surpassed $1B in revenue for the first time in a quarter, driven by broad deployment of our CSS platforms across AI data center, cloud, and mobile.”
🔸 “AI is accelerating demand for energy-efficient compute. Arm is uniquely positioned to lead this shift from cloud to edge, as more software is being written first for Arm-based chips.”
Strategic & Platform Highlights
🔹 Smartphone royalty revenue +30% YoY despite <2% unit growth, driven by armv9 adoption
🔹 major wins: nvidia grace blackwell, google axion, microsoft cobalt 100
🔹 first css license signed in automotive (ev platform)
🔹 flexible access customers: 314 (up from 222 yoy)
🔹 github copilot + arm developer ai extension launched
🔹 over 8b kleidi ai installs
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$ARM Q4'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.24B (Est. $1.23B) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.55 (Est. $0.53) 🟢; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $655M (Est. $621.8M) 🟢; +68% YoY
FY26 Guide
🔹 Revenue: $3.94B–$4.04B (Est. $4.91B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.56–$1.64 (Est. $2.03) 🔴
Q1'26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $1.00B–$1.10B (Est. $1.10B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.30–$0.38 (Est. $0.42) 🔴
🔹 Adj. OpEx: ~$625M (vs. $566M in Q4 FY25)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Royalty Revenue: $607M (Est. $567.7M) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔹 Licensing & Other Revenue: $634M; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 98.4% (vs. 97.2% YoY)
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 52.8% (vs. 42.1% YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $258M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP): $163M
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.83B
🔹 R&D Headcount: +18% YoY (6,943 engineers)
CEO Rene Haas Commentary
🔸 “Arm delivered record-breaking results for both Q4 and the full fiscal year. We surpassed $1B in revenue for the first time in a quarter, driven by broad deployment of our CSS platforms across AI data center, cloud, and mobile.”
🔸 “AI is accelerating demand for energy-efficient compute. Arm is uniquely positioned to lead this shift from cloud to edge, as more software is being written first for Arm-based chips.”
Strategic & Platform Highlights
🔹 Smartphone royalty revenue +30% YoY despite <2% unit growth, driven by armv9 adoption
🔹 major wins: nvidia grace blackwell, google axion, microsoft cobalt 100
🔹 first css license signed in automotive (ev platform)
🔹 flexible access customers: 314 (up from 222 yoy)
🔹 github copilot + arm developer ai extension launched
🔹 over 8b kleidi ai installs
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$AXON Enterprise Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $604M (Est. $586M) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.41 (Est. $1.24) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $155M (Est. $138M) 🟢
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $2.65B (Est. $2.62B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $668M (Est. $660M) 🟢
🔹 CapEx: $160M–$180M
Q1 Business Segment:
🔹 Axon Cloud Revenue: $263M; +39% YoY
🔹 ARR: $1.1B; +34% YoY
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$AXON Enterprise Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $604M (Est. $586M) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.41 (Est. $1.24) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $155M (Est. $138M) 🟢
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $2.65B (Est. $2.62B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $668M (Est. $660M) 🟢
🔹 CapEx: $160M–$180M
Q1 Business Segment:
🔹 Axon Cloud Revenue: $263M; +39% YoY
🔹 ARR: $1.1B; +34% YoY
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$CVNA | Carvana Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +38% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟢; Margin: 11.5% 🟢
🔹 Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟢
Q2'25 Outlook
🔹 Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA
🔹 Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics
Q1 Operational Highlights
🔸 All-time record in Retail Units Sold
🔸 Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
🔸 Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years
Strategic Long-Term Target
🔹 New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years
CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia
🔸 “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”
🔸 “We are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”
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$CVNA | Carvana Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +38% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟢; Margin: 11.5% 🟢
🔹 Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟢
Q2'25 Outlook
🔹 Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA
🔹 Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics
Q1 Operational Highlights
🔸 All-time record in Retail Units Sold
🔸 Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
🔸 Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years
Strategic Long-Term Target
🔹 New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years
CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia
🔸 “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”
🔸 “We are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”
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$APP | AppLovin Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.48B (Est. $1.38B) 🟢; +40% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.67 (Est. $1.42) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.01B; +83% YoY
Strategic Update
🔸 Divestiture: AppLovin entered into a definitive agreement to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for: $400M in cash; ~20% ownership stake in Tripledot common equity; Deal expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory approvals
Q1 Advertising
🔹 Revenue: $1.16B; +71% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $943M; +92% YoY
🔹 Margin: 81%
Apps (Gaming)
🔹 Revenue: $325M; -14% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $62M; +9% YoY
🔸 Focus shift continues toward being a pure-play marketing and ad tech platform
Cash Flow & Capital Returns
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $832M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $826M
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.4M shares repurchased in Q1 for $1.2B
🔹 Total Shares Outstanding: 338M (Class A + B)
CEO Commentary (Implied)
🔸 Exceptional growth driven by ad platform strength and margin expansion
🔸 Strategic realignment solidifies AppLovin as a high-growth, high-margin software business post divestiture
🔸 Capital returns reflect strong confidence in long-term trajectory
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$APP | AppLovin Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.48B (Est. $1.38B) 🟢; +40% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.67 (Est. $1.42) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.01B; +83% YoY
Strategic Update
🔸 Divestiture: AppLovin entered into a definitive agreement to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for: $400M in cash; ~20% ownership stake in Tripledot common equity; Deal expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory approvals
Q1 Advertising
🔹 Revenue: $1.16B; +71% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $943M; +92% YoY
🔹 Margin: 81%
Apps (Gaming)
🔹 Revenue: $325M; -14% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $62M; +9% YoY
🔸 Focus shift continues toward being a pure-play marketing and ad tech platform
Cash Flow & Capital Returns
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $832M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $826M
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.4M shares repurchased in Q1 for $1.2B
🔹 Total Shares Outstanding: 338M (Class A + B)
CEO Commentary (Implied)
🔸 Exceptional growth driven by ad platform strength and margin expansion
🔸 Strategic realignment solidifies AppLovin as a high-growth, high-margin software business post divestiture
🔸 Capital returns reflect strong confidence in long-term trajectory
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The Quiver Quantitative site just made an appearance in Congress.
Jasmine Crockett attacked Marjorie Taylor Greene for Palantir stock purchases.
See here: https://t.co/FEYMEaOZiR
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BREAKING: The Quiver Quantitative site just made an appearance in Congress.
Jasmine Crockett attacked Marjorie Taylor Greene for Palantir stock purchases.
See here: https://t.co/FEYMEaOZiR
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