The All-In Podcast
NEW INTERVIEW: secretary of the interior doug burgum sits down with friedberg!🛢️🔋⚡️
this interview was recorded at sabine pass in louisiana
@SecretaryBurgum joined @friedberg to discuss:
-- how his background in tech and as governor of north dakota led to his role in the administration
-- america's energy emergency: ai, competing with china, the energy addition roadmap
-- making america more risk-on
-- creating a national balance sheet
++ much more
(0:00) friedberg introduces secretary burgum
(2:11) burgum's background and how it led him to his role in the administration
(10:56) understanding the state of american energy production and how we got here
(22:32) america's energy emergency, unlocking potential, keeping up with china, increasing national risk tolerance
(34:22) burgum's national balance sheet idea: how it could help reduce national debt
(42:25) mining, overseeing the epa, aligning agencies with outcomes
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NEW INTERVIEW: secretary of the interior doug burgum sits down with friedberg!🛢️🔋⚡️
this interview was recorded at sabine pass in louisiana
@SecretaryBurgum joined @friedberg to discuss:
-- how his background in tech and as governor of north dakota led to his role in the administration
-- america's energy emergency: ai, competing with china, the energy addition roadmap
-- making america more risk-on
-- creating a national balance sheet
++ much more
(0:00) friedberg introduces secretary burgum
(2:11) burgum's background and how it led him to his role in the administration
(10:56) understanding the state of american energy production and how we got here
(22:32) america's energy emergency, unlocking potential, keeping up with china, increasing national risk tolerance
(34:22) burgum's national balance sheet idea: how it could help reduce national debt
(42:25) mining, overseeing the epa, aligning agencies with outcomes
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App Economy Insights
Visuals of the week (so far):
🪙 $BRK Buffett steps down
🕵️ $PLTR Palantir's acceleration
↗️ $AMD AMD's surprise guidance
🏎️ $RACE Ferrari's pricing power.
💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers' pivot
⚡️ $CELH Celsius + Alani and more!
https://t.co/QUA3PQhE2J
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Visuals of the week (so far):
🪙 $BRK Buffett steps down
🕵️ $PLTR Palantir's acceleration
↗️ $AMD AMD's surprise guidance
🏎️ $RACE Ferrari's pricing power.
💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers' pivot
⚡️ $CELH Celsius + Alani and more!
https://t.co/QUA3PQhE2J
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Wall St Engine
$EA delivered a strong Q4, reporting a $254M profit—up 40% from last year—driven by “College Football 25” and over $1B in bookings from its American Football segment.
Full-year net bookings hit $7.36B, with live services making up 73%. Looking ahead, EA forecasts FY26 bookings of $7.6B to $8B, helped by continued strength in its sports titles, double-digit monetization growth in “FC,” and the upcoming “Battlefield” release. The delay of GTA 6 to FY27 removes a major competitive headwind, giving EA more room to capture market share. Shares jumped 6% after hours.
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$EA delivered a strong Q4, reporting a $254M profit—up 40% from last year—driven by “College Football 25” and over $1B in bookings from its American Football segment.
Full-year net bookings hit $7.36B, with live services making up 73%. Looking ahead, EA forecasts FY26 bookings of $7.6B to $8B, helped by continued strength in its sports titles, double-digit monetization growth in “FC,” and the upcoming “Battlefield” release. The delay of GTA 6 to FY27 removes a major competitive headwind, giving EA more room to capture market share. Shares jumped 6% after hours.
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/07/2025
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00: US Treasury Sec. Bessent
12:00: Bessent Meets With GOP on Tax
14:00: FOMC Rate Decision
14:30: FOMC Press Conference w/ Chair Powell
15:00: US Consumer Credit
Before Open 👇
01:00: Fiverr International $FVRR
01:30: Novo Nordisk $NVO
06:00: Barrick Gold $GOLD
06:00: Oscar Health $OSCR
06:40: Walt Disney $DIS
06:55: Uber Technologies $UBER
06:55: Emerson Electric $EMR
07:00: Vistra Energy $VST
08:00: Unity $U
After Hours 👇
16:01: MercadoLibre $MELI
16:01: Axon Enterprise $AXON
16:01: Symbotic $SYM
16:02: Arm Holdings $ARM
16:05: AppLovin $APP
16:05: IonQ $IONQ
16:05: Fortinet $FTNT
16:05: Dutch Bros $BROS
16:05: Paycom Software $PAYC
16:10: Carvana $CVNA
16:15: Q2 Holdings $QTWO
16:15: Occidental $OXY
16:15: Honest Company $HNST
16:15: AMC Entertainment $AMC
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/07/2025
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00: US Treasury Sec. Bessent
12:00: Bessent Meets With GOP on Tax
14:00: FOMC Rate Decision
14:30: FOMC Press Conference w/ Chair Powell
15:00: US Consumer Credit
Before Open 👇
01:00: Fiverr International $FVRR
01:30: Novo Nordisk $NVO
06:00: Barrick Gold $GOLD
06:00: Oscar Health $OSCR
06:40: Walt Disney $DIS
06:55: Uber Technologies $UBER
06:55: Emerson Electric $EMR
07:00: Vistra Energy $VST
08:00: Unity $U
After Hours 👇
16:01: MercadoLibre $MELI
16:01: Axon Enterprise $AXON
16:01: Symbotic $SYM
16:02: Arm Holdings $ARM
16:05: AppLovin $APP
16:05: IonQ $IONQ
16:05: Fortinet $FTNT
16:05: Dutch Bros $BROS
16:05: Paycom Software $PAYC
16:10: Carvana $CVNA
16:15: Q2 Holdings $QTWO
16:15: Occidental $OXY
16:15: Honest Company $HNST
16:15: AMC Entertainment $AMC
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Wall St Engine
$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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Wall St Engine
Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Wall St Engine
BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Maintains Hold on $AMD, Lowers PT to $100 from $120; 'We remain on the sidelines as there is really no upside without an AI story'
Analyst comments: "Overall estimates move higher, which may be seen as a short-term positive given low expectations, but AI growth remains the key metric for the stock—and on that front, estimates are moving lower. This might not be the last cut, as the full-year AI growth outlook depends heavily on a significant 2H25 ramp driven by the MI350 launch, and we still have not seen any meaningful traction. Server revenue was solid despite some potential share loss to Intel, and the Client segment performed well with record average selling prices, though share also declined there.
Looking ahead to 2H, the PC market is expected to be 'sub-seasonal,' likely adjusted downwards to reflect already strong performance and potential tariff-driven demand destruction. We remain on the sidelines, as there is really no upside without an AI story."
Analyst: Blayne Curtis
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Jefferies Maintains Hold on $AMD, Lowers PT to $100 from $120; 'We remain on the sidelines as there is really no upside without an AI story'
Analyst comments: "Overall estimates move higher, which may be seen as a short-term positive given low expectations, but AI growth remains the key metric for the stock—and on that front, estimates are moving lower. This might not be the last cut, as the full-year AI growth outlook depends heavily on a significant 2H25 ramp driven by the MI350 launch, and we still have not seen any meaningful traction. Server revenue was solid despite some potential share loss to Intel, and the Client segment performed well with record average selling prices, though share also declined there.
Looking ahead to 2H, the PC market is expected to be 'sub-seasonal,' likely adjusted downwards to reflect already strong performance and potential tariff-driven demand destruction. We remain on the sidelines, as there is really no upside without an AI story."
Analyst: Blayne Curtis
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Wall St Engine
Alibaba $BABA is teaming up with RedNote (Xiaohongshu) to let users shop directly from posts via Taobao links, formalizing app-to-app shopping. The move supports Alibaba's instant retail push, now handling 10M orders in 5 days, as competition heats up with JD and Meituan in the one-hour delivery race.
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Alibaba $BABA is teaming up with RedNote (Xiaohongshu) to let users shop directly from posts via Taobao links, formalizing app-to-app shopping. The move supports Alibaba's instant retail push, now handling 10M orders in 5 days, as competition heats up with JD and Meituan in the one-hour delivery race.
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Wall St Engine
EU 🇪🇺 is preparing to propose tariffs on Boeing $BA jets as part of a broader €100B retaliation package if talks with the US fail to lower tariffs. Measures would need majority approval from EU members and wouldn’t take effect unless progress stalls.
(Source: FT) https://t.co/aMybyWJbd8
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EU 🇪🇺 is preparing to propose tariffs on Boeing $BA jets as part of a broader €100B retaliation package if talks with the US fail to lower tariffs. Measures would need majority approval from EU members and wouldn’t take effect unless progress stalls.
(Source: FT) https://t.co/aMybyWJbd8
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Wall St Engine
$OSCR | Oscar Health Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $3.05B (Est. $2.87B) 🟢; +42% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $275.3M; +55% YoY
🔹 EPS (Diluted): $0.92 (Est. $0.81) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $328.8M; +50% YoY
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 75.4% (vs. 74.2% Y/Y)
🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.8%
🔹 Membership: 2.04M; +41% YoY
↳ Individual & Small Group: 2.02M
↳ Cigna+Oscar: 17.9K (down from 61.4K)
🔸 Reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Management emphasized margin expansion and operating leverage due to membership growth and efficiency gains.
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$OSCR | Oscar Health Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $3.05B (Est. $2.87B) 🟢; +42% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $275.3M; +55% YoY
🔹 EPS (Diluted): $0.92 (Est. $0.81) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $328.8M; +50% YoY
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 75.4% (vs. 74.2% Y/Y)
🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.8%
🔹 Membership: 2.04M; +41% YoY
↳ Individual & Small Group: 2.02M
↳ Cigna+Oscar: 17.9K (down from 61.4K)
🔸 Reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Management emphasized margin expansion and operating leverage due to membership growth and efficiency gains.
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Wall St Engine
BofA Upgrades $AMD to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $120 from $105; '20%+ topline grower at compelling 18x CY26E PE'
Analyst comments: "AMD’s Q1 beat and strong Q2 sales outlook ($7.4 billion, 10% above our forecast despite a $700 million China headwind) address prior concerns regarding China AI restrictions and Nvidia GPU competition. We find the risk-reward compelling and upgrade AMD to Buy based on: (1) potential to deliver 20%+ topline growth in CY25E and CY26E, even with China headwinds; (2) continued share gains in PC/server CPUs against Intel, which remains in a restructuring phase; (3) achievable AI GPU sales targets of $6.2 billion in CY25E (up 23% YoY, including $1.5 billion from China restrictions), with a 2H acceleration driven by the MI350 launch; (4) EBIT margin expansion potential toward 30% in CY27E from 22% in CY25E; and (5) an attractive valuation at 18x CY26E P/E versus a 27% CY24-27E pro forma EPS CAGR.
While bears may argue that near-term beats stem from consumer PC/gaming or tariff pull-ins, we see the strength as driven by better mix and share gains. We raise our CY25/26/27E pro forma EPS by 4%/6%/11% to $3.80/$5.60/$6.81 and lift our price objective to $120 from $105, applying a slightly higher 21x CY26E P/E multiple (up from 20x), still within AMD’s historical 13x-39x range."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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BofA Upgrades $AMD to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $120 from $105; '20%+ topline grower at compelling 18x CY26E PE'
Analyst comments: "AMD’s Q1 beat and strong Q2 sales outlook ($7.4 billion, 10% above our forecast despite a $700 million China headwind) address prior concerns regarding China AI restrictions and Nvidia GPU competition. We find the risk-reward compelling and upgrade AMD to Buy based on: (1) potential to deliver 20%+ topline growth in CY25E and CY26E, even with China headwinds; (2) continued share gains in PC/server CPUs against Intel, which remains in a restructuring phase; (3) achievable AI GPU sales targets of $6.2 billion in CY25E (up 23% YoY, including $1.5 billion from China restrictions), with a 2H acceleration driven by the MI350 launch; (4) EBIT margin expansion potential toward 30% in CY27E from 22% in CY25E; and (5) an attractive valuation at 18x CY26E P/E versus a 27% CY24-27E pro forma EPS CAGR.
While bears may argue that near-term beats stem from consumer PC/gaming or tariff pull-ins, we see the strength as driven by better mix and share gains. We raise our CY25/26/27E pro forma EPS by 4%/6%/11% to $3.80/$5.60/$6.81 and lift our price objective to $120 from $105, applying a slightly higher 21x CY26E P/E multiple (up from 20x), still within AMD’s historical 13x-39x range."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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