⁠Wall St Engine
🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction Details:

— High Yield: 4.342% (vs presale WI 4.354%)
— Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.60 (last 6 avg: 2.59)
— Directs Accepted: 19.88% (last 6 avg: 16.8%)
— Indirects Accepted: 71.19% (last 6 avg: 70.0%)
— Dealers Takedown: 8.93% (last 6 avg: 13.2%)
— Total Auction Size: $42B

👉 Solid auction. 1.2bps stop-through, healthy demand from directs and indirects as dealers took on less than usual.
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⁠Wall St Engine
ATLANTA FED GDPNow estimates Q2 2025 real 🇺🇸 GDP growth at 2.2% as of May 6, up from 1.1% on May 1. https://t.co/sTqGHTglwF
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: $RNMBY has now risen 221% since this trade

BREAKING: Representative Susie Lee just bought stock in the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, $RNMBY.

She is the first U.S. politician we have seen buy Rheinmetall stock.

Lee sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction. https://t.co/hiNwf8AsRK - Quiver Quantitative
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: The House will vote on Marjorie Taylor Greene's Gulf of America bill this week https://t.co/EygOBbElZi
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⁠Wall St Engine
ELON MUSK'S SPACEX GETS FAA APPROVAL TO CONDUCT UP TO 25 STARSHIP LAUNCHES PER YEAR FROM TEXAS -FAA STATEMENT
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchases at $OGN

The CEO has just reported purchasing $300k of the company's stock, and the CFO has purchased $100k.

These are the first insider purchases we have seen by executives at $OGN in over 4 years.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: The recent stock market correction hit fast — a 10% drop in just 16 days, one of the quickest on record $SPY

The rapid plunge might shake investor confidence, making it tough to spot solid opportunities

Here are 10 high-quality stocks worthy of becoming core holdings🧵
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⁠Wall St Engine
THE WHITE HOUSE 🇺🇸 IS REPORTEDLY PLANNING EXECUTIVE ACTION SOON TO TRY TO SPEED NUCLEAR REACTORS' DEPLOYMENT - AXIOS

$OKLO $SMR
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⁠Wall St Engine
NVIDIA $NVDA CEO HUANG: IT WOULD BE A TREMENDOUS LOSS NOT TO BE ABLE TO ADDRESS CHINA’S AI MARKET - CNBC
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⁠Wall St Engine
U.S. Transportation Secretary Duffy says work is underway on a new communications system for air traffic, aiming for completion by summer. An infrastructure package focused on modernizing air traffic control will be announced Thursday.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Most retail investors spend about 6 minutes researching before buying a stock, and 73% of that time is just looking at same-day price charts. Only 1% of their time goes to checking risk, and 14% to company fundamentals.

– From a study by NYU’s Laarits & Wurgler
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.09x
•10-Year Mean: 25.04x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.17%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%

As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~46% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.70B

$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 73x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.8%
•2024: 55.6%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•2024: 80.8%

$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $14.43B
•2024: $40.34B
•CAGR: 10.82%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $4.50B
•2024: $10.25B
•CAGR: 8.58%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.78
•2024: $3.16
•CAGR: 15.01%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 5.26B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.46B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~15.2%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~17.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 85.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 48.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 34.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~46% MORE in EPS & ~11% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at an 8.55% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.55%) required growth rate:

2025E: $4.04 (21.9% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $4.78 (11.8% YoY)
2027E: $5.45 (12.6% YoY)

$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NVO ends 2027 with $4.90 in EPS (-10% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $112.70💵 … ~24.4% CAGR

22x P/E: $107.80💵 … ~22.4% CAGR

21x P/E: $102.90💵 … ~20.4% CAGR

20x P/E: $98.00💵 … ~18.2% CAGR

19x P/E: $93.10💵 … ~16.0% CAGR

As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20x earnings (a multiple below its 10-year mean, & a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)

Today at $66💵 $NVO is a strong consideration for investment

By assuming a 20x end multiple & 2027 EPS -10% below analyst estimates, we ensure a good margin of safety to compensate for the inherent risks in the biotech / biopharma space (lack of predictability, R&D risk, patent expirations, etc.)

#stocks #investing

*Financials in USD
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Bill Ackman floats the idea: if Trump cut China tariffs to 20% and raised them gradually—0.5%/mo in year 1, 1% in year 2, 1.5% in year 3—it’d give firms time to move supply chains, while pressuring China to reform. Hikes could pause or reverse if trade practices improve.

What if @realDonaldTrump were to announce that China tariffs would immediately be reduced to 20% and then escalate thereafter by 0.5% per month for next 12 months, and then by 1% per month for the next 12 months, and then by 1.5% per month for the next 12 months and so on?

To the extent that China modifies its unfair trade practices, the increases could stop and potentially be reversed depending upon the degree of improvement in its trade policies.

This approach would incentivize companies to relocate their supply chains from China while enabling them to continue to operate profitably during the transition.

China would be incentivized to make a good deal with @realDonaldTrump as promptly as practicable while the risk of a dramatic shock to the US and global economies would be greatly reduced if not eliminated. - Bill Ackman
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