Offshore
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soken
RT @TheBTCTherapist: In 8 months they will call you “lucky”.
The luck:
https://t.co/v3GM6kHdmC
tweet
RT @TheBTCTherapist: In 8 months they will call you “lucky”.
The luck:
https://t.co/v3GM6kHdmC
tweet
Offshore
Video
soken
where I will move to if BTC hit 200K next week
tweet
where I will move to if BTC hit 200K next week
An America of 5.6 million https://t.co/abMdIjQP0l tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China signals openness to U.S. trade talks but warns against continued threats.
S&P 500 futures extend gains to +2.5%. https://t.co/Z7O0iLNvoC
tweet
BREAKING: China signals openness to U.S. trade talks but warns against continued threats.
S&P 500 futures extend gains to +2.5%. https://t.co/Z7O0iLNvoC
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors were just cheated:
Yesterday at 12:00 PM ET, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he sees "de-escalation with China" and the current situation is "unsustainable."
These comments were provided at a CLOSED-DOOR investor summit hosted by JP Morgan.
This summit was not open to the public or to the media.
Then, at 5:18 PM ET, President Trump said tariffs on China "will not be as high as 145%."
Bessent effectively told a closed-group of Wall Street investors that de-escalation with China was coming BEFORE the public knew.
The result was a move of +5% in S&P 500 futures, for a total of +$2.2 TRILLION of market cap.
Investors at the JP Morgan event were able to front-run these headlines.
How is this fair for retail investors?
tweet
Retail investors were just cheated:
Yesterday at 12:00 PM ET, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he sees "de-escalation with China" and the current situation is "unsustainable."
These comments were provided at a CLOSED-DOOR investor summit hosted by JP Morgan.
This summit was not open to the public or to the media.
Then, at 5:18 PM ET, President Trump said tariffs on China "will not be as high as 145%."
Bessent effectively told a closed-group of Wall Street investors that de-escalation with China was coming BEFORE the public knew.
The result was a move of +5% in S&P 500 futures, for a total of +$2.2 TRILLION of market cap.
Investors at the JP Morgan event were able to front-run these headlines.
How is this fair for retail investors?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$TSLA Tesla just posted its worst quarter in 3 years.
What’s behind the slump?
🧨 Political backlash
📉 Deliveries down 13% Y/Y
🤖 Autonomy bet with execution risk
📊 Let's break down the numbers 👇
https://t.co/bFwx9N4oST
tweet
$TSLA Tesla just posted its worst quarter in 3 years.
What’s behind the slump?
🧨 Political backlash
📉 Deliveries down 13% Y/Y
🤖 Autonomy bet with execution risk
📊 Let's break down the numbers 👇
https://t.co/bFwx9N4oST
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $LRCX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 16.66x
•10-Year Mean: 20.20x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.80%
•10-Year Mean: 5.51%
As you can see, $LRCX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~21% MORE in earnings per share & ~23% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LRCX is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $5.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.48B
$LRCX has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 25x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 46.8%
•2023: 39.3%
•2024: 31.3%
•LTM: 34.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 69.8%
•2022: 74.8%
•2023: 62.3%
•2024: 45.7%
•LTM: 50.4%
$LRCX has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.61B
•2024: $14.91B
•CAGR: 12.45%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $571.55M
•2024: $4.26B
•CAGR: 22.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.44
•2024: $3.03
•CAGR: 21.28%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2019: $0.44
•2024: $0.80
•CAGR: 12.70%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.77B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.30B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~26%, $LRCX increased its EPS by ~35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~21% MORE in EPS & ~23% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LRCX has to grow earnings at an 8.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.33%) required growth rate:
2025E: $3.75 (23.7% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $3.88 (3.6% YoY)
2027E: $4.65 (19.8% YoY)
2028E: $5.50 (18.3% YoY)
$LRCX has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $LRCX ends FY 2028 with $5.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
20x P/E: $110.00💵 … ~20.2% CAGR
19x P/E: $104.50💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
18x P/E: $99.00💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
17x P/E: $93.50💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $88.00💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $LRCX to trade for 18x - 20x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, $LRCX still appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 16x - 17x, a multiple that’s justified by its excellent capital allocation, wide moat & growth rate
Moreover, $LRCX derives a large portion of its revenues from memory chip production, which is a strong growth driver for the company
~40% of revenue comes from recurring-like services, making $LRCX more predictable softening sector volatility
Today at $63💵 $LRCX appears to be a great consideration, with some margin of safety
Given its high uncertainty, I’d buy in tranches and leave some room to add more if it declines further, e.g. 1/3 at $63, 1/3 at $55, 1/3 at $50
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $LRCX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 16.66x
•10-Year Mean: 20.20x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.80%
•10-Year Mean: 5.51%
As you can see, $LRCX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~21% MORE in earnings per share & ~23% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LRCX is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $5.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.48B
$LRCX has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 25x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 46.8%
•2023: 39.3%
•2024: 31.3%
•LTM: 34.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 69.8%
•2022: 74.8%
•2023: 62.3%
•2024: 45.7%
•LTM: 50.4%
$LRCX has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.61B
•2024: $14.91B
•CAGR: 12.45%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $571.55M
•2024: $4.26B
•CAGR: 22.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.44
•2024: $3.03
•CAGR: 21.28%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2019: $0.44
•2024: $0.80
•CAGR: 12.70%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.77B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.30B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~26%, $LRCX increased its EPS by ~35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~21% MORE in EPS & ~23% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LRCX has to grow earnings at an 8.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.33%) required growth rate:
2025E: $3.75 (23.7% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $3.88 (3.6% YoY)
2027E: $4.65 (19.8% YoY)
2028E: $5.50 (18.3% YoY)
$LRCX has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $LRCX ends FY 2028 with $5.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
20x P/E: $110.00💵 … ~20.2% CAGR
19x P/E: $104.50💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
18x P/E: $99.00💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
17x P/E: $93.50💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $88.00💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $LRCX to trade for 18x - 20x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, $LRCX still appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 16x - 17x, a multiple that’s justified by its excellent capital allocation, wide moat & growth rate
Moreover, $LRCX derives a large portion of its revenues from memory chip production, which is a strong growth driver for the company
~40% of revenue comes from recurring-like services, making $LRCX more predictable softening sector volatility
Today at $63💵 $LRCX appears to be a great consideration, with some margin of safety
Given its high uncertainty, I’d buy in tranches and leave some room to add more if it declines further, e.g. 1/3 at $63, 1/3 at $55, 1/3 at $50
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦[...]