The Kobeissi Letter
The 10Y Note Yield just:
1. Convinced Trump to delay tariffs by 90-days
2. Made the Fed ready to "stabilize" markets if needed
3. Made Trump ready for a phone call with Xi
4. Became one of Secretary Bessent's top priorities
5. Unwound the $800+ billion basis trade
The bond market is the new driver of economic policy.
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The 10Y Note Yield just:
1. Convinced Trump to delay tariffs by 90-days
2. Made the Fed ready to "stabilize" markets if needed
3. Made Trump ready for a phone call with Xi
4. Became one of Secretary Bessent's top priorities
5. Unwound the $800+ billion basis trade
The bond market is the new driver of economic policy.
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
NEW: Just released improvements to the Quiver app.
You can get notifications on new:
- Congressional stock trades
- Government contracts
- Corporate lobbying
- Insider Trades
Alerts you on new data before we even get the chance to post on it.
Out now on both iOS and Android. https://t.co/3Mz0ggAFx7
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NEW: Just released improvements to the Quiver app.
You can get notifications on new:
- Congressional stock trades
- Government contracts
- Corporate lobbying
- Insider Trades
Alerts you on new data before we even get the chance to post on it.
Out now on both iOS and Android. https://t.co/3Mz0ggAFx7
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AkhenOsiris
RT @lokoyacap: This new Chinese semi reg is crazy bullish $tsm. All of their lagging (>N5) edge capacity, which like everyone else has been running a UR in the 70s at best for several qtrs now, is now worth its weight in gold. Expect the US analog guys to Hoover it up ASAP since this is a near instantaneous way to solve for shipping into China via an already qualified tier 1 foundry that has capacity.
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RT @lokoyacap: This new Chinese semi reg is crazy bullish $tsm. All of their lagging (>N5) edge capacity, which like everyone else has been running a UR in the 70s at best for several qtrs now, is now worth its weight in gold. Expect the US analog guys to Hoover it up ASAP since this is a near instantaneous way to solve for shipping into China via an already qualified tier 1 foundry that has capacity.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @JerryCap: "GPUs falling under these categories that are exported from Mexico to the US, for example, qualify for duty-free treatment, allowing them to bypass the 25% tariff that would otherwise apply to non-originating goods. They are essentially treated like avocados planted and grown in Mexico and exported to the US or Canada. This provides a significant advantage for US companies importing GPUs from Mexico or Canada to the US." @SemiAnalysis_
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RT @JerryCap: "GPUs falling under these categories that are exported from Mexico to the US, for example, qualify for duty-free treatment, allowing them to bypass the 25% tariff that would otherwise apply to non-originating goods. They are essentially treated like avocados planted and grown in Mexico and exported to the US or Canada. This provides a significant advantage for US companies importing GPUs from Mexico or Canada to the US." @SemiAnalysis_
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US leveraged-loan funds saw a record $6.5 billion net outflow in the week ended Wednesday.
This surpassed the previous record of $3.6 billion seen in the December 2018 sell-off.
Furthermore, investors pulled out a whopping $2.5 billion from the two largest ETFs tied to US leveraged loans this week.
The Invesco Senior Loan ETF, $BKLN, the biggest fund tracking corporate floating-rate debt, recorded a $1.4 billion outflow in 4 trading days, the largest since its 2011 inception.
All while US high-yield bond funds posted $9.6 billion in withdrawals, the biggest in nearly 20 years.
The flight to safety is real.
tweet
BREAKING: US leveraged-loan funds saw a record $6.5 billion net outflow in the week ended Wednesday.
This surpassed the previous record of $3.6 billion seen in the December 2018 sell-off.
Furthermore, investors pulled out a whopping $2.5 billion from the two largest ETFs tied to US leveraged loans this week.
The Invesco Senior Loan ETF, $BKLN, the biggest fund tracking corporate floating-rate debt, recorded a $1.4 billion outflow in 4 trading days, the largest since its 2011 inception.
All while US high-yield bond funds posted $9.6 billion in withdrawals, the biggest in nearly 20 years.
The flight to safety is real.
tweet
Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
A little surprised to see Nebraskan beef in Tenerife.
Spain could have made a good deal with the US if it wasn’t part of EU 😀 https://t.co/5O2EmkxgPD
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A little surprised to see Nebraskan beef in Tenerife.
Spain could have made a good deal with the US if it wasn’t part of EU 😀 https://t.co/5O2EmkxgPD
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The All-In Podcast
🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝
featuring:
-- @Jason
-- @chamath
-- @DavidSacks
-- @LHSummers
-- @ezraklein
(@friedberg is off this week!)
(0:00) bestie intros!
(0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs
(21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto
(46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake?
(1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information
(1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge
(1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony
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🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝
featuring:
-- @Jason
-- @chamath
-- @DavidSacks
-- @LHSummers
-- @ezraklein
(@friedberg is off this week!)
(0:00) bestie intros!
(0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs
(21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto
(46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake?
(1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information
(1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge
(1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony
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twitter.com
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