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The Kobeissi Letter
US small business optimism is fading:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.4 points, to 97.4, the lowest since October.
It marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline.
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions tumbled 16 points, to 21%, posting the largest monthly drop since December 2020.
The share of firms expecting higher sales dropped 11 points, to 3%, the lowest since October.
Small businesses outlook is deteriorating.
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US small business optimism is fading:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.4 points, to 97.4, the lowest since October.
It marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline.
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions tumbled 16 points, to 21%, posting the largest monthly drop since December 2020.
The share of firms expecting higher sales dropped 11 points, to 3%, the lowest since October.
Small businesses outlook is deteriorating.
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
You can’t make this up:
Another +20 bps move in the 10Y Note Yield today puts us 100 bps ABOVE when the “Fed pivot” began.
What is the Fed thinking right now? https://t.co/8Ard5cZrlf
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You can’t make this up:
Another +20 bps move in the 10Y Note Yield today puts us 100 bps ABOVE when the “Fed pivot” began.
What is the Fed thinking right now? https://t.co/8Ard5cZrlf
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Investing visuals
You're given $100,000. Would you invest it in $NVDA or $AMD? https://t.co/89tG0H4g3l
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You're given $100,000. Would you invest it in $NVDA or $AMD? https://t.co/89tG0H4g3l
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Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: PDD now trading at its lowest EV/Revenue (1.2x) and EV/EBITDA (4.4x) forward multiples EVER.
Valuation compression is real — market pricing in a lot. Bargain or value trap? https://t.co/90GSyy1BwK
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RT @gainify_io: PDD now trading at its lowest EV/Revenue (1.2x) and EV/EBITDA (4.4x) forward multiples EVER.
Valuation compression is real — market pricing in a lot. Bargain or value trap? https://t.co/90GSyy1BwK
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App Economy Insights
📉 Markets got you down?
Let’s flip the script.
Your Bear Market Survival Guide is here:
https://t.co/Q6Mn1TIxcr
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📉 Markets got you down?
Let’s flip the script.
Your Bear Market Survival Guide is here:
https://t.co/Q6Mn1TIxcr
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The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors were some of the most active stock buyers on Wednesday:
Individual investors bought a whopping $3.3 billion of US equities in the first 4.5 hours of Wednesday’s trading session, the third-largest on record.
In just 2 days, retail traders purchased over $6 billion worth of stocks, according to JPMorgan.
This comes after they sold a record amount of equities on Friday and Monday.
Retail is still buying the dip and calling for a bottom.
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Retail investors were some of the most active stock buyers on Wednesday:
Individual investors bought a whopping $3.3 billion of US equities in the first 4.5 hours of Wednesday’s trading session, the third-largest on record.
In just 2 days, retail traders purchased over $6 billion worth of stocks, according to JPMorgan.
This comes after they sold a record amount of equities on Friday and Monday.
Retail is still buying the dip and calling for a bottom.
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Robert Garcia:
What did Marjorie Taylor Greene know before the tariff announcement, and what stocks did she trade? https://t.co/inp7TQxgeD
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Representative Robert Garcia:
What did Marjorie Taylor Greene know before the tariff announcement, and what stocks did she trade? https://t.co/inp7TQxgeD
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The Kobeissi Letter
China's response to US tariffs is being misreported:
Many headlines state that China is conceding because they said they will no longer raise tariffs if the US responds.
What China actually said:
China will ignore further tariff increases because "it's already impossible for the Chinese market to accept US imports at the current tariff level."
China also, once again, said they will "fight to the end."
How will Trump respond?
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China's response to US tariffs is being misreported:
Many headlines state that China is conceding because they said they will no longer raise tariffs if the US responds.
What China actually said:
China will ignore further tariff increases because "it's already impossible for the Chinese market to accept US imports at the current tariff level."
China also, once again, said they will "fight to the end."
How will Trump respond?
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Finding Compounders
Benjamin Graham
Avoid Self Destructive Investor Behavior https://t.co/oI4HoyiOSi
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Benjamin Graham
Avoid Self Destructive Investor Behavior https://t.co/oI4HoyiOSi
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Quiver Quantitative
Portfolio update from Jack Schlossberg, JFK's only grandson.
Gold, $GLD, has risen 23% since he bought in.
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Portfolio update from Jack Schlossberg, JFK's only grandson.
Gold, $GLD, has risen 23% since he bought in.
It’s COMPLETELY TRUE:
January 3rd 2025
Jack Schlossberg takes long position on $GLD
April 8th, 2025
Jack Schlossberg increased his position.
SQUID ISLAND FINANCIAL (Schlossberg’s macro hedge fund) continues its assault on public markets. tweet
twitter.com
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