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The Kobeissi Letter
Investors are all-in on US stocks despite the recent pullback:
Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors’ allocation to US equities is up to a record 51%.
This is above the previous peaks of 50% in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and prior to the 2022 bear market.
As a result, investors now allocate just 14% and 19% of their financial assets to cash and debt instruments.
To put this into perspective, at the low of the 2008 Financial Crisis, allocation to equities was at 28%.
Investors have rarely been this optimistic about the US stock market.
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Investors are all-in on US stocks despite the recent pullback:
Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors’ allocation to US equities is up to a record 51%.
This is above the previous peaks of 50% in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and prior to the 2022 bear market.
As a result, investors now allocate just 14% and 19% of their financial assets to cash and debt instruments.
To put this into perspective, at the low of the 2008 Financial Crisis, allocation to equities was at 28%.
Investors have rarely been this optimistic about the US stock market.
tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is what you call a nightmare situation:
Treasury yields are now up +10% since April 3rd while the S&P 500 is down -10%.
The 10-year note yield is currently up 55 basis points in 48 HOURS.
In other words, we now have HIGHER rates with stocks pricing-in a recession.
Something broke this week.
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This is what you call a nightmare situation:
Treasury yields are now up +10% since April 3rd while the S&P 500 is down -10%.
The 10-year note yield is currently up 55 basis points in 48 HOURS.
In other words, we now have HIGHER rates with stocks pricing-in a recession.
Something broke this week.
tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The collapse of bond prices amid a tariff-induced recession will be studied for years to come.
Higher rates combined with GDP contraction is a lethal combination. https://t.co/AlsOgdU5Cn
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RT @TKL_Adam: The collapse of bond prices amid a tariff-induced recession will be studied for years to come.
Higher rates combined with GDP contraction is a lethal combination. https://t.co/AlsOgdU5Cn
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Oil prices fall below $57 for the first time since February 2021 as markets price in a global recession. https://t.co/MxYJZYgOAW
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BREAKING: Oil prices fall below $57 for the first time since February 2021 as markets price in a global recession. https://t.co/MxYJZYgOAW
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as crypto markets erase -$500 billion since the April 2nd high. https://t.co/uFBKUms881
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BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as crypto markets erase -$500 billion since the April 2nd high. https://t.co/uFBKUms881
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: The steepest US tariffs in a century are in.
📦 Hundreds of goods hit.
🌏 China, Vietnam, and the EU—targeted.
🔍 What sparked it—and who pays the price?
https://t.co/Fhs4nKAGaP
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RT @EconomyApp: The steepest US tariffs in a century are in.
📦 Hundreds of goods hit.
🌏 China, Vietnam, and the EU—targeted.
🔍 What sparked it—and who pays the price?
https://t.co/Fhs4nKAGaP
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The Kobeissi Letter
You can't make this up:
The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.
At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.
Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl
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You can't make this up:
The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.
At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.
Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have officially gone LIVE with US tariffs now in effect on 185+ countries.
The US is now collecting a massive 104% tariff on Chinese goods. https://t.co/QKAmb2IPAL
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BREAKING: President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have officially gone LIVE with US tariffs now in effect on 185+ countries.
The US is now collecting a massive 104% tariff on Chinese goods. https://t.co/QKAmb2IPAL
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The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.
The 10-year note yield just surged another 10 basis points in a matter of minutes as "reciprocal tariffs" went live.
It's now ABOVE 4.50% and 75 basis points above levels seen when the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024.
Something is about to break. https://t.co/IDnp4VDd6T
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WOW.
The 10-year note yield just surged another 10 basis points in a matter of minutes as "reciprocal tariffs" went live.
It's now ABOVE 4.50% and 75 basis points above levels seen when the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024.
Something is about to break. https://t.co/IDnp4VDd6T
You can't make this up:
The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.
At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.
Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl tweet