Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
tweet
that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
tweet
BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
tweet
This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US economic outlook is deteriorating:
The ISM Services PMI index dropped 2.7 points in March, to 50.8, the lowest since June 2024.
New orders fell 1.8 points, to 50.4, a 9-month low, suggesting more weakness in the services sector going forward.
Furthermore, the prices paid index came at 60.9 points, the 4th consecutive reading above 60, the longest such streak in 2 years.
Concerningly, the employment index fell a whopping 7.7 points, to 46.2, the lowest since December 2023.
We now have shrinking employment in both services and manufacturing sectors.
US business sentiment is collapsing.
tweet
US economic outlook is deteriorating:
The ISM Services PMI index dropped 2.7 points in March, to 50.8, the lowest since June 2024.
New orders fell 1.8 points, to 50.4, a 9-month low, suggesting more weakness in the services sector going forward.
Furthermore, the prices paid index came at 60.9 points, the 4th consecutive reading above 60, the longest such streak in 2 years.
Concerningly, the employment index fell a whopping 7.7 points, to 46.2, the lowest since December 2023.
We now have shrinking employment in both services and manufacturing sectors.
US business sentiment is collapsing.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
The last 24 hours highlight just how powerful sentiment is:
At 10:15 AM yesterday, the "fake news" 90-day tariff delay announcement led to a 400+ point rally in the S&P 500.
Through this morning, the fundamental situation ONLY deteriorated as Trump imposed additional 50% tariffs on China and China vowed to "fight until the end."
By 11:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 was up +450 points from its lows as the fundamental situation got WORSE.
So, why did we rally?
Purely because there was "hope" of a trade deal lingering from yesterday and sentiment improved.
Then, when the White House said 104% tariffs on China were "in effect," sentiment quickly flipped, despite information that was already known, and stocks collapsed.
If you can stay ahead of swings in sentiment, this market is incredibly profitable right now.
tweet
The last 24 hours highlight just how powerful sentiment is:
At 10:15 AM yesterday, the "fake news" 90-day tariff delay announcement led to a 400+ point rally in the S&P 500.
Through this morning, the fundamental situation ONLY deteriorated as Trump imposed additional 50% tariffs on China and China vowed to "fight until the end."
By 11:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 was up +450 points from its lows as the fundamental situation got WORSE.
So, why did we rally?
Purely because there was "hope" of a trade deal lingering from yesterday and sentiment improved.
Then, when the White House said 104% tariffs on China were "in effect," sentiment quickly flipped, despite information that was already known, and stocks collapsed.
If you can stay ahead of swings in sentiment, this market is incredibly profitable right now.
tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene just made new stock trades.
Look at this: https://t.co/53GJIslKvJ
tweet
Marjorie Taylor Greene just made new stock trades.
Look at this: https://t.co/53GJIslKvJ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The rush to the exit:
Asset selloffs are defying historical correlations, coming with drops in stocks, gold, bonds, and oil prices, all at the same time.
It's not often you see a market where ALL assets are liquidated simultaneously.
Everyone wants cash, yet so many are trapped.
tweet
RT @TKL_Adam: The rush to the exit:
Asset selloffs are defying historical correlations, coming with drops in stocks, gold, bonds, and oil prices, all at the same time.
It's not often you see a market where ALL assets are liquidated simultaneously.
Everyone wants cash, yet so many are trapped.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Stock market futures extend declines with the Dow now down nearly -300 points since the close. https://t.co/sjpDt0m5EB
tweet
BREAKING: Stock market futures extend declines with the Dow now down nearly -300 points since the close. https://t.co/sjpDt0m5EB
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Market concentration is declining:
Magnificent 7 stocks' share of the S&P 500 is down 4 percentage points this year, to 27.6%, the lowest since April 2024.
This metric is now only ~1.5 percentage points above the Q4 2021 peak before the 2022 bear market began.
This comes as the group erased a whopping -$1.4 trillion in market cap last week.
Since its December peak, the Magnificent 7 have lost -$4.5 trillion in market value, down 28%.
This is almost DOUBLE the size of the entire German stock market.
The Magnificent 7's historic run has come to an end.
tweet
Market concentration is declining:
Magnificent 7 stocks' share of the S&P 500 is down 4 percentage points this year, to 27.6%, the lowest since April 2024.
This metric is now only ~1.5 percentage points above the Q4 2021 peak before the 2022 bear market began.
This comes as the group erased a whopping -$1.4 trillion in market cap last week.
Since its December peak, the Magnificent 7 have lost -$4.5 trillion in market value, down 28%.
This is almost DOUBLE the size of the entire German stock market.
The Magnificent 7's historic run has come to an end.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump officially signs Executive Order increasing tariffs on China to 104%. https://t.co/ankAz0wHwv
tweet
BREAKING: President Trump officially signs Executive Order increasing tariffs on China to 104%. https://t.co/ankAz0wHwv
tweet