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The Kobeissi Letter
Market distress is skyrocketing:
US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023.
This marks the largest two-day jump since the 2020 pandemic.
High-yield bond spreads have now almost DOUBLED since mid-February.
This comes as investors are increasingly concerned that the economy is heading into a recession which will make companies to struggle repay their debts.
If junk bond spreads continue to surge at such a pace, it may trigger a wave of bankruptcies in the US, especially in firms with weaker fundamentals.
Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.
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Market distress is skyrocketing:
US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023.
This marks the largest two-day jump since the 2020 pandemic.
High-yield bond spreads have now almost DOUBLED since mid-February.
This comes as investors are increasingly concerned that the economy is heading into a recession which will make companies to struggle repay their debts.
If junk bond spreads continue to surge at such a pace, it may trigger a wave of bankruptcies in the US, especially in firms with weaker fundamentals.
Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.
The LESSON investors learned today:
At 10:15 AM ET, US stocks swung $7 TRILLION in 30 minutes on a "fake" tariff deal headline.
While the move was undone, we obtained KEY information about the current state of the market.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/89vcYClp7X tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges over +6% at the open. https://t.co/V51UsoBsfV
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BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges over +6% at the open. https://t.co/V51UsoBsfV
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Stock market futures pare gains as China releases statement saying they “will fight to the end” against tariffs.
President Trump is set to impose a whopping 84% tariff increase on China beginning April 9th. https://t.co/oceKDajY8e
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BREAKING: Stock market futures pare gains as China releases statement saying they “will fight to the end” against tariffs.
President Trump is set to impose a whopping 84% tariff increase on China beginning April 9th. https://t.co/oceKDajY8e
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The Kobeissi Letter
Amid all the noise today, markets barely reacted to perhaps the biggest news of the trade war thus far:
President Trump threatening ADDITIONAL 50% tariffs on China is huge news.
This means 20% + 34% + 50% tariffs on China for a total of 104%.
The United States imports a total of $439 BILLION from China per year.
China has until April 8th to drop their 34% tariff on China or President Trump says these tariffs will go live.
Minutes ago, China said they "will fight until the end" against Trump's tariffs.
Amid all the noise, trade war tensions hit a new high today.
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Amid all the noise today, markets barely reacted to perhaps the biggest news of the trade war thus far:
President Trump threatening ADDITIONAL 50% tariffs on China is huge news.
This means 20% + 34% + 50% tariffs on China for a total of 104%.
The United States imports a total of $439 BILLION from China per year.
China has until April 8th to drop their 34% tariff on China or President Trump says these tariffs will go live.
Minutes ago, China said they "will fight until the end" against Trump's tariffs.
Amid all the noise, trade war tensions hit a new high today.
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene just said that people panicking over the tariffs are losers and failures.
Greene bought stock in Dollar General before the tariffs were announced.
$DG is up 28% since then: https://t.co/nO0144MMI2
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Marjorie Taylor Greene just said that people panicking over the tariffs are losers and failures.
Greene bought stock in Dollar General before the tariffs were announced.
$DG is up 28% since then: https://t.co/nO0144MMI2
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Capital Employed
Current average valuations around the world, courtesy of Idea Farm.
Thailand SET has not been this cheap since 2011.
Many South American countries still looking cheap.
HK and Poland still cheap.
Japan not as cheap as it once was. US and India still looking expensive. https://t.co/pNYZtbD27x
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Current average valuations around the world, courtesy of Idea Farm.
Thailand SET has not been this cheap since 2011.
Many South American countries still looking cheap.
HK and Poland still cheap.
Japan not as cheap as it once was. US and India still looking expensive. https://t.co/pNYZtbD27x
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Dow futures extend gains to over +1,000 points with the S&P 500 set to open over +2% higher. https://t.co/iOcaEr74qm
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BREAKING: Dow futures extend gains to over +1,000 points with the S&P 500 set to open over +2% higher. https://t.co/iOcaEr74qm
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BREAKING: Bill Ackman says he is now "advocating for a 30, 60, or 90-day pause before the tariffs are implemented tomorrow." https://t.co/3ZeBwCh1ox
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BREAKING: Bill Ackman says he is now "advocating for a 30, 60, or 90-day pause before the tariffs are implemented tomorrow." https://t.co/3ZeBwCh1ox
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