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The Kobeissi Letter
We are witnessing historic trading activity:
Daily US option volumes surpassed 100 MILLION contracts for the first time in history.
Option volume has exceeded the previous record set last month by 19 million contracts.
US stock and ETF put option volumes alone hit a record 53 million contracts.
Put volumes have now surpassed the previous high posted during the March 2023 Banking Crisis by 16 million contracts.
All while trading volume on all US exchanges reached 26.4 billion shares, an all-time high.
Truly mind-blowing numbers.
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We are witnessing historic trading activity:
Daily US option volumes surpassed 100 MILLION contracts for the first time in history.
Option volume has exceeded the previous record set last month by 19 million contracts.
US stock and ETF put option volumes alone hit a record 53 million contracts.
Put volumes have now surpassed the previous high posted during the March 2023 Banking Crisis by 16 million contracts.
All while trading volume on all US exchanges reached 26.4 billion shares, an all-time high.
Truly mind-blowing numbers.
The LESSON investors learned today:
At 10:15 AM ET, US stocks swung $7 TRILLION in 30 minutes on a "fake" tariff deal headline.
While the move was undone, we obtained KEY information about the current state of the market.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/89vcYClp7X tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Leveraged ETF assets have now plummeted a massive $45 billion year-to-date to their lowest since April 2024.
This is a -36% drop in roughly 3 months.
By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, it took ~6 months, or twice as long, for a similar percentage decline.
The 3x Leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF is currently down -59% in just 6 weeks.
As the market experienced its sharpest sell-off since the 2020 pandemic, appetite for leverage trading has significantly declined.
Risk appetite is rapidly declining.
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BREAKING: Leveraged ETF assets have now plummeted a massive $45 billion year-to-date to their lowest since April 2024.
This is a -36% drop in roughly 3 months.
By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, it took ~6 months, or twice as long, for a similar percentage decline.
The 3x Leveraged Nasdaq 100 ETF is currently down -59% in just 6 weeks.
As the market experienced its sharpest sell-off since the 2020 pandemic, appetite for leverage trading has significantly declined.
Risk appetite is rapidly declining.
The LESSON investors learned today:
At 10:15 AM ET, US stocks swung $7 TRILLION in 30 minutes on a "fake" tariff deal headline.
While the move was undone, we obtained KEY information about the current state of the market.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/89vcYClp7X tweet
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The All-In Podcast
Ben Shapiro on his message to the American people if he were to run for president: "I'll get everybody the hell outta your way so you can succeed."
@benshapiro on All-In E222:
"It'd be pretty horrifying to run for office."
"But if I were gonna run, I would be running on the basic idea that in this country, the only thing that you are promised is the adventure."
"I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not gonna make you promises that I can't keep about how I'm gonna fix your life."
"Because the truth is, I really can't."
"All I can do is help get the obstacles out of the way so you can fix your life, and you can make your life better."
"One of the things that drives me up a wall is when politicians say, 'I created X jobs,' or 'We created X jobs.'"
"You didn't create a job, okay. The government does not create jobs. The government can take money from people and then give it to other people, but it is only entrepreneurs who can create jobs."
"And so the way that you fight China off is not by the power of a centralized government directing people in a particular direction."
"The way that you fight off China is by unleashing the collective knowledge, wisdom, and ambition of the American people on an individual level to go out and do all of these unbelievable things."
"And that would be the promise that I'd make to the American people is I'll get everybody the hell outta your way so you can succeed."
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Ben Shapiro on his message to the American people if he were to run for president: "I'll get everybody the hell outta your way so you can succeed."
@benshapiro on All-In E222:
"It'd be pretty horrifying to run for office."
"But if I were gonna run, I would be running on the basic idea that in this country, the only thing that you are promised is the adventure."
"I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not gonna make you promises that I can't keep about how I'm gonna fix your life."
"Because the truth is, I really can't."
"All I can do is help get the obstacles out of the way so you can fix your life, and you can make your life better."
"One of the things that drives me up a wall is when politicians say, 'I created X jobs,' or 'We created X jobs.'"
"You didn't create a job, okay. The government does not create jobs. The government can take money from people and then give it to other people, but it is only entrepreneurs who can create jobs."
"And so the way that you fight China off is not by the power of a centralized government directing people in a particular direction."
"The way that you fight off China is by unleashing the collective knowledge, wisdom, and ambition of the American people on an individual level to go out and do all of these unbelievable things."
"And that would be the promise that I'd make to the American people is I'll get everybody the hell outta your way so you can succeed."
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The Kobeissi Letter
Market distress is skyrocketing:
US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023.
This marks the largest two-day jump since the 2020 pandemic.
High-yield bond spreads have now almost DOUBLED since mid-February.
This comes as investors are increasingly concerned that the economy is heading into a recession which will make companies to struggle repay their debts.
If junk bond spreads continue to surge at such a pace, it may trigger a wave of bankruptcies in the US, especially in firms with weaker fundamentals.
Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.
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Market distress is skyrocketing:
US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023.
This marks the largest two-day jump since the 2020 pandemic.
High-yield bond spreads have now almost DOUBLED since mid-February.
This comes as investors are increasingly concerned that the economy is heading into a recession which will make companies to struggle repay their debts.
If junk bond spreads continue to surge at such a pace, it may trigger a wave of bankruptcies in the US, especially in firms with weaker fundamentals.
Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.
The LESSON investors learned today:
At 10:15 AM ET, US stocks swung $7 TRILLION in 30 minutes on a "fake" tariff deal headline.
While the move was undone, we obtained KEY information about the current state of the market.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/89vcYClp7X tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges over +6% at the open. https://t.co/V51UsoBsfV
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BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges over +6% at the open. https://t.co/V51UsoBsfV
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Stock market futures pare gains as China releases statement saying they “will fight to the end” against tariffs.
President Trump is set to impose a whopping 84% tariff increase on China beginning April 9th. https://t.co/oceKDajY8e
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BREAKING: Stock market futures pare gains as China releases statement saying they “will fight to the end” against tariffs.
President Trump is set to impose a whopping 84% tariff increase on China beginning April 9th. https://t.co/oceKDajY8e
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The Kobeissi Letter
Amid all the noise today, markets barely reacted to perhaps the biggest news of the trade war thus far:
President Trump threatening ADDITIONAL 50% tariffs on China is huge news.
This means 20% + 34% + 50% tariffs on China for a total of 104%.
The United States imports a total of $439 BILLION from China per year.
China has until April 8th to drop their 34% tariff on China or President Trump says these tariffs will go live.
Minutes ago, China said they "will fight until the end" against Trump's tariffs.
Amid all the noise, trade war tensions hit a new high today.
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Amid all the noise today, markets barely reacted to perhaps the biggest news of the trade war thus far:
President Trump threatening ADDITIONAL 50% tariffs on China is huge news.
This means 20% + 34% + 50% tariffs on China for a total of 104%.
The United States imports a total of $439 BILLION from China per year.
China has until April 8th to drop their 34% tariff on China or President Trump says these tariffs will go live.
Minutes ago, China said they "will fight until the end" against Trump's tariffs.
Amid all the noise, trade war tensions hit a new high today.
tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene just said that people panicking over the tariffs are losers and failures.
Greene bought stock in Dollar General before the tariffs were announced.
$DG is up 28% since then: https://t.co/nO0144MMI2
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Marjorie Taylor Greene just said that people panicking over the tariffs are losers and failures.
Greene bought stock in Dollar General before the tariffs were announced.
$DG is up 28% since then: https://t.co/nO0144MMI2
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