AkhenOsiris
Back in January, 3 of my dearest buyside buddies had tariffs never even being put on (threat only), the other 4 had 10% max, (not 20%), and forget about 30-40%.

Part of this collapse is the level of offsides coming in to Obliteration Day, everyone from your Uber driver to sneaky Fackman and everyone in between
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AkhenOsiris
Remember the vibes? 😂
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AkhenOsiris
😂

this does feel a bit like the 1929 crash but reminds me more of the correction back in 1889 .. - JE$US
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AkhenOsiris
Every crisis has its own uniqueness and nuances, and while I have no doubt that anyone buying markets down 25% or lower will be fine looking out several years...the vibes feel different here because the trigger for this crisis has 4 long years to go in office.
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AkhenOsiris
Has any sell-side modeled out the Taiwan invasion yet? Or is it just "forget about markets, focus on survival".
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AkhenOsiris
Goldman ups its recession odds for the 2nd time in a week — from 35% to 45%.

“.. sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

h/t @carlquintanilla
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AkhenOsiris
TIL this admin i've been bending over for is actually...bad.

I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes.

It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest. - Bill Ackman
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AkhenOsiris
RT @JerryCap: The Art of the Retard

At current levels we are looking at worst ever three day move in $ES - Will Hershey
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
I always thought that specialisation is a win-win, depending on your competencies and natural advantages.

It is good to be a world’s leader in Tech & AI. Some countries are more competitive in labour intensive sectors.

But it looks like the new administration wants US to produce t-shirts, shoes and everything else at home. In the meantime they risk losing their positions in more strategic sectors.

Strange choice…
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⁠Finding Compounders
This is a must read for every investor

Sequoia’s 1978 Quarterly Report

“ If anyone offers you a new Mercedes for $2500, take it and don’t worry about the outcome of the Salt talks or the Middle East situation”

The gist of this letter : Focus on what actually matters !! https://t.co/0SVUULOOp9
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says "oil prices are down, interest rates are down... and there is NO INFLATION." https://t.co/cK1p8RKlTt
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says that Fed Chair Powell is "slow moving" and "should cut interest rates."

On Friday, Fed Chair Powell said he's "not in a hurry" to cut rates minutes after Trump called on him to cut rates immediately.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, says tariffs will increase inflation, likely cause a recession, and should be "resolved quickly." https://t.co/NqPc8LG2x9
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures rebound and pare losses as President Trump’s allies speak out against tariff policy, last down -2%. https://t.co/6Oh5XQaSlE

The free fall continues:

Today's drop in US stock market futures puts S&P 500 futures down -22% and in bear market territory.

The US stock market has now erased an average of $400 billion PER TRADING DAY for 32-straight days.

Is it time to BUY stocks yet?

(a thread) https://t.co/MMtYgQXhh2 - The Kobeissi Letter
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