⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: JP Morgan has raised their probability of a recession in 2025 to 60%. https://t.co/5EDtP9Ro8E

The "World War 3" of Trade Wars Has Begun:

Americans are waking up to the first MAJOR tariff retaliation against President Trump.

China has announced 34% tariffs on ALL US goods with the S&P 500's 2-day losses now at -$3.5 TRILLION.

Here's what just happened.

(a thread) https://t.co/snIbLMV24D - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says "China played it wrong, they panicked."

He says this is "the one thing they cannot afford to do" after 34% tariffs were imposed on US imports. https://t.co/aOyJBJGzdA
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⁠Finding Compounders
Sun Trust Bank’s 2000000% gain

In 1919 , a tiny beverage maker named Coca- Cola wanted to go public and they approached the Trust Company of Georgia to execute their IPO

For their underwriting services , the bank received $110k of Coca- Cola stock.

The Trust Company of https://t.co/2URhy5N7LF
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Oil prices are currently on track for their largest 2-day loss since April 2020 as markets price-in a recession. https://t.co/MXkBLZsKes
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Two-day losses in the S&P 500 surpass -8% for a total of -$3.5 trillion in market cap.

This is the largest 2-day drop since the pandemic in 2020. https://t.co/Odcqz2XwR3
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⁠Investing visuals
A side-by-side of two great compounders https://t.co/ylOnRHZhAh
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Our most asked question of the day: "Is this capitulation yet?"

The $VIX hit 45 today and is already down ~10 points. https://t.co/XXxRZTpD1h
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Retail got trapped yesterday:

As we clearly noted in the below post, yesterday's sell off was NOT capitulation.

Retail investors bought $4.7 BILLION of stocks yesterday alone, per JP Morgan, a 10+ year high.

Today, retail capital has been trapped and institutional capital is taking advantage of it.

Bear markets are when profitable traders can shine.

In case you are wondering if capitulation has occurred:

The S&P 500 closed down -4.8% today and the Volatility Index, $VIX, remained below 30.

There has NEVER been a day in history with a 4.5%+ drop in the S&P 500 without the $VIX rising above 30.

Selling has been ORDERLY. https://t.co/gJWq0Bv3eV - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The odds of a recession in the US this year rise to a new high of 59%, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/HFob1dpBzW
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