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Finding Compounders
Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
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Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
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BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
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Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
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The Kobeissi Letter
The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
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The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
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BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
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AkhenOsiris
Fucknick on thin ice, per Politico:
Inside the White House, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been perhaps the biggest proponent of ”Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump’s promised unveiling of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday. But as the day nears, the potential fallout from those tariffs may well liberate Lutnick from his role in the administration, according to half dozen people close to the White House.While Americans and much of the world brace for a possible season of pain following the imposition of the new tranche of tariffs, Trump’s orbit is ready to play the blame game should things go poorly for the White House. And all the fingers will be pointing at Lutnick, two people close to the administration, granted anonymity to discuss the private dynamics, told POLITICO.“I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him,” said one.
Lutnick spends substantial time in the Oval Office, hyping the president on his tariff strategy and “giving him bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs,” the person said.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the “measured voice” advocating targeted tariffs. Trade adviser Peter Navarro has never been shy about his affection for tariffs, but he’s a known quantity and isn’t seen as shaking anything up. By contrast, Lutnick is “a new voice at the table pushing crazy shit,” in the words of the person familiar with the situation. “I don’t know anyone that isn’t pissed off at him.”
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Fucknick on thin ice, per Politico:
Inside the White House, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been perhaps the biggest proponent of ”Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump’s promised unveiling of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday. But as the day nears, the potential fallout from those tariffs may well liberate Lutnick from his role in the administration, according to half dozen people close to the White House.While Americans and much of the world brace for a possible season of pain following the imposition of the new tranche of tariffs, Trump’s orbit is ready to play the blame game should things go poorly for the White House. And all the fingers will be pointing at Lutnick, two people close to the administration, granted anonymity to discuss the private dynamics, told POLITICO.“I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him,” said one.
Lutnick spends substantial time in the Oval Office, hyping the president on his tariff strategy and “giving him bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs,” the person said.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the “measured voice” advocating targeted tariffs. Trade adviser Peter Navarro has never been shy about his affection for tariffs, but he’s a known quantity and isn’t seen as shaking anything up. By contrast, Lutnick is “a new voice at the table pushing crazy shit,” in the words of the person familiar with the situation. “I don’t know anyone that isn’t pissed off at him.”
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AkhenOsiris
@RadnorCapital
Hi SRADnor, was wondering if you have any thoughts post SRAD's first ever Analyst Day. I like the 27% CAGR for EBITDA through 2027 👋
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@RadnorCapital
Hi SRADnor, was wondering if you have any thoughts post SRAD's first ever Analyst Day. I like the 27% CAGR for EBITDA through 2027 👋
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Cory Booker just broke the record for the longest floor speech ever.
He's been standing for over 24 hours, with no bathroom breaks.
He has said that he is going to keep going for as long as he is physically able. https://t.co/TUGhS3UfmL
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BREAKING: Cory Booker just broke the record for the longest floor speech ever.
He's been standing for over 24 hours, with no bathroom breaks.
He has said that he is going to keep going for as long as he is physically able. https://t.co/TUGhS3UfmL
tweet