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The Kobeissi Letter
This has NEVER happened in history:
The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.
The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.
Here's what's coming next.
(a thread) https://t.co/xKjHEuamQE
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This has NEVER happened in history:
The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.
The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.
Here's what's coming next.
(a thread) https://t.co/xKjHEuamQE
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Is a US credit event on its way?
The North American High Yield Credit Default Swap Index has surged 377 points, the highest since the August 2024 sell-off, per ZeroHedge.
This index tracks the 100 most liquid North American companies with high-yield credit ratings.
The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index jumped to 62 points, the highest in at least 15 months.
This index tracks the 125 most liquid North American companies with investment-grade credit ratings.
As a result, the cost of protection against a default or bankruptcy of these companies is skyrocketing.
US credit markets are cracking.
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Is a US credit event on its way?
The North American High Yield Credit Default Swap Index has surged 377 points, the highest since the August 2024 sell-off, per ZeroHedge.
This index tracks the 100 most liquid North American companies with high-yield credit ratings.
The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index jumped to 62 points, the highest in at least 15 months.
This index tracks the 125 most liquid North American companies with investment-grade credit ratings.
As a result, the cost of protection against a default or bankruptcy of these companies is skyrocketing.
US credit markets are cracking.
This has NEVER happened in history:
The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.
The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.
Here's what's coming next.
(a thread) https://t.co/xKjHEuamQE tweet
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Finding Compounders
Peter Lynch says that studying history and philosophy gives one better preparation for investing - because investing is more of an art than a science
What are your thoughts ? https://t.co/XoNovAbhQm
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Peter Lynch says that studying history and philosophy gives one better preparation for investing - because investing is more of an art than a science
What are your thoughts ? https://t.co/XoNovAbhQm
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China, Japan and South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs as President Trump's April 2nd reciprocal tariff day nears, per Reuters.
Mexico has already announced that a response is coming as soon as April 3rd.
Reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs are coming next.
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BREAKING: China, Japan and South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs as President Trump's April 2nd reciprocal tariff day nears, per Reuters.
Mexico has already announced that a response is coming as soon as April 3rd.
Reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs are coming next.
This has NEVER happened in history:
The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.
The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.
Here's what's coming next.
(a thread) https://t.co/xKjHEuamQE tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Institutional investors are cashing OUT of tech:
Hedge funds’ gross exposure to tech as a % of total US exposure has declined ~ 2 percentage points over the last two months, to 16.5%, the lowest 2020.
This is even below the levels recorded during the 2022 bear market, according to Goldman Sachs.
Meanwhile, hedge funds' net selling of US tech stocks has hit the second-highest level in 5 years.
Selling was particularly focused on Semiconductor, Software, and Tech Hardware subsectors.
Hedge funds are reducing exposure to tech.
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Institutional investors are cashing OUT of tech:
Hedge funds’ gross exposure to tech as a % of total US exposure has declined ~ 2 percentage points over the last two months, to 16.5%, the lowest 2020.
This is even below the levels recorded during the 2022 bear market, according to Goldman Sachs.
Meanwhile, hedge funds' net selling of US tech stocks has hit the second-highest level in 5 years.
Selling was particularly focused on Semiconductor, Software, and Tech Hardware subsectors.
Hedge funds are reducing exposure to tech.
This has NEVER happened in history:
The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.
The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.
Here's what's coming next.
(a thread) https://t.co/xKjHEuamQE tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Americans have never held more credit card debt:
The national average credit card debt balance among cardholders with unpaid balances was $7,236 in Q3 2024, according to LendingTree.
Connecticut, Washington DC, and California had the highest averages of $9,323, $9,209, and $9,191.
This was followed by New Jersey, Florida, and Alaska at $9,112, $9,094, and $9,094.
Furthermore, Wyoming has the fastest-growing card debt levels which rose 8.9% in Q3 2024.
Meanwhile, total credit card debt has risen by $441 billion since Q1 2021 and hit a record $1.2 trillion in Q4 2024, according the NY Fed.
Credit card debt is out of control.
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Americans have never held more credit card debt:
The national average credit card debt balance among cardholders with unpaid balances was $7,236 in Q3 2024, according to LendingTree.
Connecticut, Washington DC, and California had the highest averages of $9,323, $9,209, and $9,191.
This was followed by New Jersey, Florida, and Alaska at $9,112, $9,094, and $9,094.
Furthermore, Wyoming has the fastest-growing card debt levels which rose 8.9% in Q3 2024.
Meanwhile, total credit card debt has risen by $441 billion since Q1 2021 and hit a record $1.2 trillion in Q4 2024, according the NY Fed.
Credit card debt is out of control.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio has dropped to 0.02, its lowest since December 2020.
Over the last 2.5 years, the ratio has declined a whopping 75%.
This comes as Bitcoin prices have significantly outperformed Ethereum.
During this time, Ethereum prices have risen 36% while Bitcoin has gained 318%.
This year, Ethereum has dropped 46%, nearly 4 TIMES more than Bitcoin’s decline of 12%.
Ethereum is losing market share.
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BREAKING: The Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio has dropped to 0.02, its lowest since December 2020.
Over the last 2.5 years, the ratio has declined a whopping 75%.
This comes as Bitcoin prices have significantly outperformed Ethereum.
During this time, Ethereum prices have risen 36% while Bitcoin has gained 318%.
This year, Ethereum has dropped 46%, nearly 4 TIMES more than Bitcoin’s decline of 12%.
Ethereum is losing market share.
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AkhenOsiris
Update:
After South Korea and Japan thought over their response to US tariffs...they both decided to join forces with China to respond. #AmericaWinning 🤦🏼♂️
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Update:
After South Korea and Japan thought over their response to US tariffs...they both decided to join forces with China to respond. #AmericaWinning 🤦🏼♂️
Tariff State of the Union
Negotiate First:
- India
- Australia
- Brazil
Retaliate First:
- Canada
- EU
- China
- Mexico
Need to Think:
- South Korea
- Japan
All roads lead to negotiation eventually, even Canadians are talking with US, but just noting the kneejerk reactions. - AkhenOsiristweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
5 High-Quality Stocks With Strong CAGR Potential Assuming Fairly Conservative Multiples
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•2027E EPS: $11.77
•Multiple: 18x
•CAGR: +12%
📦 Amazon $AMZN
•2027E EPS: $9.49
•Multiple: 28x
•CAGR: +13%
🧬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•2027E EPS: $5.36
•Multiple: 18x
•CAGR: +13%
🫱🏼🫲🏻 MercadoLibre $MELI
•2027E EPS: $84.98
•Multiple: 32x
•CAGR: +13%
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•2027E EPS: $288.49
•Multiple: 22x
•CAGR: +13%
_______
*Data from tikr
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5 High-Quality Stocks With Strong CAGR Potential Assuming Fairly Conservative Multiples
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•2027E EPS: $11.77
•Multiple: 18x
•CAGR: +12%
📦 Amazon $AMZN
•2027E EPS: $9.49
•Multiple: 28x
•CAGR: +13%
🧬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•2027E EPS: $5.36
•Multiple: 18x
•CAGR: +13%
🫱🏼🫲🏻 MercadoLibre $MELI
•2027E EPS: $84.98
•Multiple: 32x
•CAGR: +13%
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•2027E EPS: $288.49
•Multiple: 22x
•CAGR: +13%
_______
*Data from tikr
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