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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
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BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
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The Kobeissi Letter
Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
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Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL tweet
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Investing visuals
If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
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If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
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The Kobeissi Letter
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
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Finding Compounders
One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
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One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
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The All-In Podcast
The AI Cold War: USA🇺🇸 vs China🇨🇳
On E221, the besties discussed how US efforts to impede China’s AI progress by restricting GPU exports are producing unintended consequences.
@chamath:
"The US government is really trying to make sure that these next-gen GPUs don't go directly to China, but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China."
@GavinSBaker:
" We're putting enough friction into the system that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and ... you know, necessity is the mother of innovation."
" These export controls are creating an immense incentive for China to be really algorithmically innovative."
"And you saw that with DeepSeek where there were some real algorithmic innovations."
@Jason:
" Said another way, if we squeeze too tightly on letting them buy the Nvidia chips, they might make a better Nvidia."
Chamath:
"They're trying now."
Jason:
"What are the chances they succeed in your mind, Gavin?"
Gavin:
" In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard."
"But over ten years, who knows?"
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The AI Cold War: USA🇺🇸 vs China🇨🇳
On E221, the besties discussed how US efforts to impede China’s AI progress by restricting GPU exports are producing unintended consequences.
@chamath:
"The US government is really trying to make sure that these next-gen GPUs don't go directly to China, but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China."
@GavinSBaker:
" We're putting enough friction into the system that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and ... you know, necessity is the mother of innovation."
" These export controls are creating an immense incentive for China to be really algorithmically innovative."
"And you saw that with DeepSeek where there were some real algorithmic innovations."
@Jason:
" Said another way, if we squeeze too tightly on letting them buy the Nvidia chips, they might make a better Nvidia."
Chamath:
"They're trying now."
Jason:
"What are the chances they succeed in your mind, Gavin?"
Gavin:
" In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard."
"But over ten years, who knows?"
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AkhenOsiris
Silicon valley bros finally changing their tune... before was tariff shmarrif and all about dereg and tax cuts...hear those anymore?
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Silicon valley bros finally changing their tune... before was tariff shmarrif and all about dereg and tax cuts...hear those anymore?
The Trump economic detox correctly reduces gov’t spending & re-balances U.S. trade BUT CEOs are worried about economic shock therapy that causes massive uncertainty & risks recession. $1 T tariffs + $1 T budget cuts in 2025/2026 will send markets / economy lower. 🇺🇸🫡 - Brad Gerstnertweet