Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 44.66x โข1-Year Mean: 47.97x As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE inโฆ
๏ฟฝ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
The market no longer believes the Fed:
Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED.
In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023.
Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/KWjK2LekQM
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The market no longer believes the Fed:
Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED.
In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023.
Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/KWjK2LekQM
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876 tweet
Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
How hot is inflation?
1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline AND Core PCE inflation are now all above +3.0%.
1-month annualized Core PCE inflation is now running at a whopping +4.5%.
This is 250 basis points ABOVE the Fed's long-run target, all as the Atlanta Fed now sees -0.5% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Truly incredible.
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How hot is inflation?
1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline AND Core PCE inflation are now all above +3.0%.
1-month annualized Core PCE inflation is now running at a whopping +4.5%.
This is 250 basis points ABOVE the Fed's long-run target, all as the Atlanta Fed now sees -0.5% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Truly incredible.
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876 tweet
Offshore
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โ Investing visuals
How you can tell that $ASML is a cyclical business๐ https://t.co/05Y11qXIx6
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How you can tell that $ASML is a cyclical business๐ https://t.co/05Y11qXIx6
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Hedge funds sold the second-largest amount of global technology stocks in 5 years this week, according to Goldman Sachs data.
This was only smaller than the early August 2024 sell-off.
The most activity was seen in US tech which accounted for 75% of the net selling.
Not even the early stages of the 2022 bear market experienced such a rapid exit from these stocks.
The sector has led this quarterโs losses with the Nasdaq 100 index declining -13% over the last 6 weeks.
Hedge funds continue to dump Big Tech.
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BREAKING: Hedge funds sold the second-largest amount of global technology stocks in 5 years this week, according to Goldman Sachs data.
This was only smaller than the early August 2024 sell-off.
The most activity was seen in US tech which accounted for 75% of the net selling.
Not even the early stages of the 2022 bear market experienced such a rapid exit from these stocks.
The sector has led this quarterโs losses with the Nasdaq 100 index declining -13% over the last 6 weeks.
Hedge funds continue to dump Big Tech.
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Offshore
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โ Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: $NKE has taken three hits in a row.
Each of the last 3 earnings triggered revenue and EPS downgrades from Wall Street.
Sentiment finally bottomed or more cuts coming? https://t.co/NyJhwVXczc
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RT @gainify_io: $NKE has taken three hits in a row.
Each of the last 3 earnings triggered revenue and EPS downgrades from Wall Street.
Sentiment finally bottomed or more cuts coming? https://t.co/NyJhwVXczc
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Offshore
Video
โ The All-In Podcast
Trumpโs Tariffs: 40 Years in the Making ๐บ๐ธ๐ฐ
On E221, the besties discussed President Trump's newly announced 25% auto tariffs.
@chamath:
"โThe one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent."
"I stumbled into an interview he did with Larry King in 1987, and he walked through the entire trade imbalance 40 years ago."
@realDonaldTrump in 1987:
"โThe fact is that you don't have free trade. We think of it as free trade, but you right now don't have free trade."
Chamath:
โ"Here's what tariffs do: tariffs are a level-setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance."
"What they want is to create the economic incentives to re-shore as much industry as possible into the United States."
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Trumpโs Tariffs: 40 Years in the Making ๐บ๐ธ๐ฐ
On E221, the besties discussed President Trump's newly announced 25% auto tariffs.
@chamath:
"โThe one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent."
"I stumbled into an interview he did with Larry King in 1987, and he walked through the entire trade imbalance 40 years ago."
@realDonaldTrump in 1987:
"โThe fact is that you don't have free trade. We think of it as free trade, but you right now don't have free trade."
Chamath:
โ"Here's what tariffs do: tariffs are a level-setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance."
"What they want is to create the economic incentives to re-shore as much industry as possible into the United States."
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AkhenOsiris
Mike Santoli:
Market bottoms are a process not a moment, that 40% of 10% corrections deepen to at least 15% even outside of recessions and initial correction lows frequently need to be retested over a number of weeks. In this context, the index retracing most of its snapback bounce is fairly typical. Of course, itโs called a โretestโ because sometimes they fail.
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis on Friday asked a kaon-like question: โWas the back half of March a failure to go up โฆ or a failure to go down? In other words โ which side has been more frustrated by the lack of net movement?โ
The staticky technical and fundamental atmospherics around Big Tech donโt have much to do with the suspense over the April 2 White House deadline for a new set of โreciprocalโ tariffs.
Yet tariffs are standing in as the convenient focal point for nearly all other relevant investor worries: Perceived risks to growth and inflation, as well as wariness around erratic or capricious policymaking that is keeping businesses off balance and upending global alliances.
Such a pileup of feared negatives suggests at least remaining open to ways that things might turn โless bad.โ
Could the April 2 tariff deadline prove a psychological clearing event for stocks that culminates this correction phase? Might next weekโs jobs report reassure investors that the labor market is resilient? And has the marketโs setback lowered that bar enough for first-quarter earnings to act as a source of relief?
All pragmatic questions in a moment of piqued and pervasive pessimism.
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Mike Santoli:
Market bottoms are a process not a moment, that 40% of 10% corrections deepen to at least 15% even outside of recessions and initial correction lows frequently need to be retested over a number of weeks. In this context, the index retracing most of its snapback bounce is fairly typical. Of course, itโs called a โretestโ because sometimes they fail.
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis on Friday asked a kaon-like question: โWas the back half of March a failure to go up โฆ or a failure to go down? In other words โ which side has been more frustrated by the lack of net movement?โ
The staticky technical and fundamental atmospherics around Big Tech donโt have much to do with the suspense over the April 2 White House deadline for a new set of โreciprocalโ tariffs.
Yet tariffs are standing in as the convenient focal point for nearly all other relevant investor worries: Perceived risks to growth and inflation, as well as wariness around erratic or capricious policymaking that is keeping businesses off balance and upending global alliances.
Such a pileup of feared negatives suggests at least remaining open to ways that things might turn โless bad.โ
Could the April 2 tariff deadline prove a psychological clearing event for stocks that culminates this correction phase? Might next weekโs jobs report reassure investors that the labor market is resilient? And has the marketโs setback lowered that bar enough for first-quarter earnings to act as a source of relief?
All pragmatic questions in a moment of piqued and pervasive pessimism.
tweet
Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
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US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
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Offshore
Photo
โ The Kobeissi Letter
Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
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Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
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