AkhenOsiris
AI Stocks, Hypothetical Top Indicators (please add):

- @dylan522p appearance on @joeroganhq

- Perplexity IPO

- Increasing Masayoshi Son involvement (😱)

- Coreweave IPO (😱)

Fuck, the last two are happening...
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AkhenOsiris
90% DVOL day first time during drawdown. Capitulation post bombardment incoming.
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AkhenOsiris
GOOGL 25% drawdown
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AkhenOsiris
Both Nasdaq Comp and QQQ in sniffing distance of intra-day and closing lows from March 13th
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AkhenOsiris
There was a time and place when TSLA would rip 10% on this. 2021 was that fucked up 😂

*MUSK: XAI BUYS X IN DEAL THAT VALUES XAI AT $80B, X AT $33B - *Walter Bloomberg
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AkhenOsiris
RT @neilksethi: BoA (Hartnett): "DeepSeek, DOGE, Trump geopolitics big drivers in Q1, but US tariffs set to jump from 2% to 8% of imports (Chart 3); we expect Trump underplays not overplays April 2nd to avoid 2nd wave US inflation; [NFP on] April 4th more important to set April direction…soft landing 100-200k payroll = no recession = recent SPX 5.5k low holds (US retail/homebuilding stocks bounce); hard landing <100k payroll = spx to new lows in april, taking global stocks, banks, credit down (kick-starts big trump pivot to tax cuts)."

"most faq is 'what stops doge & tariff shock therapy?' (a: inflation jump in bond yields, lower trump approval, gop house losses, jump in unemployment in pa, wi, mi)"
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⁠The All-In Podcast
🚨🚨🚨 pod up

@GavinSBaker is BACK!

he joins the besties to discuss:

-- the ai cold war: usa 🇺🇸 vs china 🇨🇳

-- m&a bounceback

-- @coreweave ipo

-- the endgame for tariffs

-- signalgate

-- el salvador deportations

(0:00) the besties welcome gavin baker!

(1:20) @nvidia balance sheet questions, @coreweave ipo, m&a/ipo bounce back

(16:22) us vs china in ai: manus, china building its own nvidia, and more

(28:37) the administration's endgame for tariffs

(53:05) signalgate: context and fallout

(1:09:42) el salvador deportations
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⁠The All-In Podcast
M&A and IPOs are Back 🔥

On E221, @Jason and @GavinSBaker discussed the current state of dealmaking with a pro-M&A administration taking over.

@Jason:

"I mean, M&A with Wiz and now CoreWeave going public, the Wrath of Lina Khan is over."

"We gotta give the administration a lot of credit for maybe removing the roadblocks to M&A and IPOs, or at least people perceive that."

"So I don't know if perception becomes reality here, but it does seem like M&A is a bit on fire."

@GavinSBaker:

"CoreWeave bought Weights & Biases, which I think is a really interesting acquisition for them that kind of further differentiates them and maybe de-commodifies them a little bit."

"There have been quite a few acquisitions by big companies of smaller companies in the last month, and I think because none of the companies that have been bought have been public maybe it's flying a little under the radar, but it's happening in an accelerating way."

"And I think this would be very good for the market, and animal spirits, and everything that we care about."
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⁠Finding Compounders
How to look at ROE

Source: @FocusedCompound https://t.co/YS4WdtQNOb
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
This is absolutely insane:

From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.

Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.

What happened? Let us explain.

(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876
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⁠App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:

🧘🏻 $LULU Lululemon: Soft Outlook
🐶 $CHWY Chewy: Autoship Unleashed
🎮 $GME GameStop: Bitcoin To The Rescue
https://t.co/5YgDFUj9i9
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 44.66x
•1-Year Mean: 47.97x

As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.70B
•Long-Term Debt: $2.82B

$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: (4.8%)
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.7%
•2023: 25.7%
•2024: 23.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: (14.2%)
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•2024: 51.5%

$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $2.30B
•2024: $20.78B
•CAGR: 55.30%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $314.29M
•2024: $7.05B
•CAGR: 86.32%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: ($3.71)
•2024: $37.69

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 12.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.2%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 22.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (22.33%) required growth rate:

2025E: $46.91 (24.5% YoY)
2026E: $64.98 (38.5% YoY)
2027E: $84.98 (30.8% YoY)

$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2027 with $84.98 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

40x P/E: $3400💵 … ~17.6% CAGR

38x P/E: $3230💵 … ~15.4% CAGR

36x P/E: $3060💵 … ~13.2% CAGR

34x P/E: $2890💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)

$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum

Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑

1. Margin expansion

2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy

3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things

Those buying $MELI today at $2165💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return

I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1945💵 (~10% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a conservative 32x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢�[...]

� 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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