Offshore
Photo
โ App Economy Insights
$TCEHY Tencent is going all-in on AI.
They're the 16th largest company globallyโyet still flying under most radars.
๐ฑ 1.4B WeChat users.
๐ฐ Billions are going into GPUs.
๐ค A new AI model rivaling DeepSeek.
Full breakdown. ๐
https://t.co/N72ZLeLS4L
tweet
$TCEHY Tencent is going all-in on AI.
They're the 16th largest company globallyโyet still flying under most radars.
๐ฑ 1.4B WeChat users.
๐ฐ Billions are going into GPUs.
๐ค A new AI model rivaling DeepSeek.
Full breakdown. ๐
https://t.co/N72ZLeLS4L
tweet
Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Jeanne Shaheen has proposed a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizen's United.
This would ban companies from being able to spend unlimited money to influence elections.
Do you support this? https://t.co/1dgtYk1otQ
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JUST IN: Senator Jeanne Shaheen has proposed a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizen's United.
This would ban companies from being able to spend unlimited money to influence elections.
Do you support this? https://t.co/1dgtYk1otQ
tweet
Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1
tweet
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
Some of them are pretty interesting:
He is apparently day-trading Palantir, $PLTR.
He also bought more stock in the Chinese company Alibaba, $BABA.
He also bought stock in Boeing, less than a month before the massive F-47 contract was awarded to them.
Full trade list up on Quiver.
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
Some of them are pretty interesting:
He is apparently day-trading Palantir, $PLTR.
He also bought more stock in the Chinese company Alibaba, $BABA.
He also bought stock in Boeing, less than a month before the massive F-47 contract was awarded to them.
Full trade list up on Quiver.
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AkhenOsiris
FT:
The public markets risk becoming a dumping ground. When the best assets are hoarded by private equity firms, venture capitalists, sovereign-wealth funds, and family offices, the IPO market gets the leftovers. As FTAV wrote on Thursday, CoreWeave, for all its AI hype, has massive debts, huge capex requirements, mounting losses, rapidly depreciating assets, a slew of related-party dealings, and a significant dependence on just two customers (Microsoft and Nvidia). Yet here it was, looking for public investors willing to take the plunge. CoreWeave is seeking public investment not from a position of strength, but out of necessity.
The same pattern played out with WeWork and other cautionary tales โ companies that didnโt go public because they were ready but because they had no other choice. The IPO market is ostensibly the showcase for the best and brightest. Now, increasingly, itโs the venue for the desperate and the distressed, a place where overhyped, overleveraged, and overrated companies try to hang on long enough for insiders to exit.
If CoreWeave and Venture Global represent the vanguard of the IPO revival, weโre in trouble. Public markets should be a launchpad for great companies, not a last resort for troubled ones. The only hope is that enough high-profile flops will force a reckoning, steering investors back towards quality โ or at least rational pricing. After all, private shareholders canโt hold on forever.
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FT:
The public markets risk becoming a dumping ground. When the best assets are hoarded by private equity firms, venture capitalists, sovereign-wealth funds, and family offices, the IPO market gets the leftovers. As FTAV wrote on Thursday, CoreWeave, for all its AI hype, has massive debts, huge capex requirements, mounting losses, rapidly depreciating assets, a slew of related-party dealings, and a significant dependence on just two customers (Microsoft and Nvidia). Yet here it was, looking for public investors willing to take the plunge. CoreWeave is seeking public investment not from a position of strength, but out of necessity.
The same pattern played out with WeWork and other cautionary tales โ companies that didnโt go public because they were ready but because they had no other choice. The IPO market is ostensibly the showcase for the best and brightest. Now, increasingly, itโs the venue for the desperate and the distressed, a place where overhyped, overleveraged, and overrated companies try to hang on long enough for insiders to exit.
If CoreWeave and Venture Global represent the vanguard of the IPO revival, weโre in trouble. Public markets should be a launchpad for great companies, not a last resort for troubled ones. The only hope is that enough high-profile flops will force a reckoning, steering investors back towards quality โ or at least rational pricing. After all, private shareholders canโt hold on forever.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
tweet
BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28๐ต โฆ ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82๐ต โฆ ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36๐ต โฆ ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88๐ต โฆ ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2010) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28๐ต โฆ ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82๐ต โฆ ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36๐ต โฆ ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88๐ต โฆ ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2010) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43% โข5-Year Mean: 2.70% As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCFโฆ
๏ฟฝ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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