⁠The Kobeissi Letter
US investor sentiment is declining:

The share of consumers expecting higher stock prices over the next 12 months fell 9.3 points in March, to 37.4%, the lowest in a year.

This marks the largest monthly decline since the March 2020 market crash.

Over the last 4 months, this percentage has plummeted 19 points from a record 56.4%.

Meanwhile, 44% of Americans now expect lower stock prices over the next 12 months, the highest share since the 2022 bear market peak of 45%.

To put this into perspective, at the 2008 peak, 55% of consumers expected lower stock prices.

Market sentiment has collapsed.

This is absolutely insane:

The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.

We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.

What is happening here?

(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @PelosiTracker_: Is your politician "Insider trading"?

Let's find out 🧢 https://t.co/Vr7d0un3o0
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
What is happening with consumers’ perception of the economy?

27% of Americans expect business conditions to worsen over the next 6 months, the highest share since Q2 2022.

This is even higher than 2020 and the second-highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Additionally, the employment outlook dropped to its lowest level in 12 years.

As a result, 67% of Americans perceive the likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months as somewhat likely or very likely, the highest share in 10 months.

Consumers are getting even more pessimistic about the economy.

This is absolutely insane:

The US just posted a 2-month goods trade deficit of $301 BILLION as companies attempt to front-run tariffs.

We have rarely ever seen a 2-month trade deficit even HALF as large, a CLEAR sign of panic.

What is happening here?

(a thread) https://t.co/83VOlPHBGC - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump has granted a full and unconditional pardon to Trevor Milton, the former CEO of Nikola Motors.

In October 2022, Milton was convicted on one count of securities fraud and two counts of wire fraud. https://t.co/HOFIQ7aYre
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
President Trump just pardoned Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola.

He had been sentenced to four years for securities fraud and wire fraud.
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:

- Inside the Trump administration, inflation has been a concern among Trump’s economic team, even if he rarely addresses it publicly, according to three people familiar with the matter.

- People familiar with Trump’s thinking say he is likely to impose few, if any, tariffs on the energy sector, in large part because of those concerns.

- An executive at one of the automakers said they were baffled by the desire to both impose tariffs—but also tell car companies they couldn’t raise prices.

“The math would tell you, that’s going to cost us multibillions of dollars,” the executive said. “So who pays for that?”
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Gold prices have moved in a straight-line higher adding $7 trillion in market cap in 12 months.

Does this ever happen in a “healthy” economy? https://t.co/9h6psLgHrZ
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The downfall of Ethereum will be studied:

After another routine 4 AM ET sell off, Ethereum is down -5% today and at a 4-year low relative to Bitcoin.

Ethereum is the "forgotten" cryptocurrency. https://t.co/dAuolgs4f9
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: February PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%.

Core PCE inflation RISES to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%.

January Core PCE inflation was also revised up to 2.7%.

Core inflation is back on the rise.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 High-Quality Sticky Stocks That Increased Revenues Annually in the Past 10 Years 📈

1. Fair Isaac $FICO 💰
•(+8.08% CAGR)

2. Equifax $EFX 💸
•(+8.83)% CAGR

3. IDEXX Labs $IDXX 🐶
•(+10.12% CAGR)

4. S&P Global $SPGI 💵
•(+10.89% CAGR)

5. MSCI Inc $MSCI 🌐
•(+11.10% CAGR)

6. Cadence Design $CDNS 💾
•(+11.37% CAGR)

7. Synopsys $SNPS 👾
•(+11.53% CAGR)

8 Intercontinental Exchange $ICE 🏦
• (+11.61% CAGR)

9. Amazon $AMZN 📦
•(+21.77% CAGR)

10. Medpace $MEDP 🏥
•(+21.94% CAGR)
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign fund, takes a position in a British small cap, Card Factory $CARD.L

I hope this is just the start of them moving out of expensive US stocks into Europe.

Will see… https://t.co/CP7ooVm67O
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