⁠The All-In Podcast
How to Hustle Your Way Into a Deal: Pokemon Go Edition

Earlier this month, Pokemon Go-maker @NianticLabs sold its games division to @scopely for $3.5B. 💰

@cyantist was one of the only angel investors in Niantic, and the story of how she got into the deal is WILD! 🤯

She broke it down on E220 of the All-In Podcast:

-- Before Pokemon Go, Niantic had a game called Ingress

-- Ingress, like Pokemon Go, relied on AR and GPS to allow players to interact with the real world

-- Cyan started playing Ingress with her friends and noticed them doing weird stuff to advance in the game, like chartering helicopters and traveling all over

-- "I was like, why are these people spending so much time? And not only that, but why are they going around taking pictures of points of interest for Google? Like what is Google actually doing with this asset was my number one question."

-- "So I realized that Ingress was part of a bigger mapping plan."

-- "I went around telling everybody, 'If I had a chance to invest in anything, it would be Niantic.'"

-- At the time, Niantic was still part of Google

-- When Niantic spun out in late 2015, Cyan had no contacts at Google to hit up about an investment

-- Eventually, she connected with Niantic founder John Hanke through one of her portfolio founders

-- Then, she showed up to Niantic's office with "two badass engineers who were players"

-- "I figured I gotta show up with some value here."

-- "We sat on the front stairs and said, 'Please take our money.' He's like, 'I don't need you. I've got Nintendo, I've got Google.'"

-- "And we're like, 'No, you really need us.'"

-- Eventually, John Hanke took her investment, gave one of the engineers a job offer, and it all worked out!

That's how you hustle your way into a dream startup! 💪
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Futures are deep green ahead of another busy week in the markets.

It’s officially the last full trading week of Q1 2025. https://t.co/Z8eGCf005e
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Retail traders have bought a net $8 BILLION of Tesla stock, $TSLA, in 2 weeks.

There has never been a 2-week inflow even HALF as large.

Retail is calling a bottom in Tesla. https://t.co/noBqvqK3uy
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⁠Finding Compounders
How Sandy Villere identifies quality companies . https://t.co/U6Xwg2lCnr
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
1 ||🚨 Röko AB: A New Serial Acquirer 🚨
1/ Röko just went public in Sweden. Led by an ex-Lifco CEO, it targets niche European businesses with a long-term ownership model. Could it be the next Lifco - or even a mini-Berkshire? Let’s dive in. 🧵👇

1/6
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⁠Finding Compounders
If you ever doubt why Warren Buffett is the greatest of all time.

The approx excess returns versus the S&P of top investors https://t.co/XpqQ4BXw8e
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
•5-Year Mean: 22.57x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
•5-Year Mean: 2.70%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $101.20B
•Long-Term Debt: $59.72B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $38.22B
•CAGR: 12.03%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:

2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $350.28💵 … ~23.2% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $330.82💵 … ~20.6% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $311.36💵 … ~18.1% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $291.88💵 … ~15.3% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $272.44💵 … ~12.5% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $107.55B
📈Ads revenue: $56.21B

Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin

Today at 196💵 $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛[...]

𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Investing visuals
A breakdown of $ASML's revenue per geographic region 👇🌏 https://t.co/sgqM3niUcd
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 opens sharply higher, adding over +$1.2 TRILLION of market cap over the last 2 sessions. https://t.co/1w4h5kfd8m
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