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The Kobeissi Letter
US consumer sentiment is falling sharply:
The consumer sentiment index tumbled 6.4 points to 64.7 in February, the lowest since November 2023.
Consumer expectations about the economy fell 5.3 points to 64, a 16-month low.
Assessment of current economic conditions dropped 8.3 points to 65.7, the lowest in 4 months.
Sentiment is now at levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis but above the 2022 low.
Furthermore, inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years jumped to 3.9%, the highest since 1993.
Consumers are feeling the pain of inflation.
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US consumer sentiment is falling sharply:
The consumer sentiment index tumbled 6.4 points to 64.7 in February, the lowest since November 2023.
Consumer expectations about the economy fell 5.3 points to 64, a 16-month low.
Assessment of current economic conditions dropped 8.3 points to 65.7, the lowest in 4 months.
Sentiment is now at levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis but above the 2022 low.
Furthermore, inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years jumped to 3.9%, the highest since 1993.
Consumers are feeling the pain of inflation.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$META stock dropped 21% in the past month, losing ~$400B in market cap
At 23x NTM earnings & a PEG <2.00, it’s starting to look appealing again
here’s $meta’s cagr potential to 2027, assuming current eps estimate of $33.58 from today’s $582 price:
25x 14.4%
24x 12.7%
23x 11.0%
22x 9.3%
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$META stock dropped 21% in the past month, losing ~$400B in market cap
At 23x NTM earnings & a PEG <2.00, it’s starting to look appealing again
here’s $meta’s cagr potential to 2027, assuming current eps estimate of $33.58 from today’s $582 price:
25x 14.4%
24x 12.7%
23x 11.0%
22x 9.3%
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The Kobeissi Letter
US government spending is out of control:
Federal, state, and local government expenditures now reflect 33.9% of US GDP, a record excluding crisis periods.
The all-time high was set in 2020, when expenditures accounted for 42.0% of GDP.
By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis and World War II this percentage was 36.9% and 36.1%, respectively.
Over the last 5 months, the government has spent a massive $3.04 trillion while collecting only $1.89 trillion in tax revenue.
In February alone, the government’s outlays were $603 billion, TWICE larger than collected taxes of $296 billion.
Government spending is a crisis.
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US government spending is out of control:
Federal, state, and local government expenditures now reflect 33.9% of US GDP, a record excluding crisis periods.
The all-time high was set in 2020, when expenditures accounted for 42.0% of GDP.
By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis and World War II this percentage was 36.9% and 36.1%, respectively.
Over the last 5 months, the government has spent a massive $3.04 trillion while collecting only $1.89 trillion in tax revenue.
In February alone, the government’s outlays were $603 billion, TWICE larger than collected taxes of $296 billion.
Government spending is a crisis.
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Alvin
Alleged real-life photos of the vivo X200 Ultra have been leaked online, showing the HUGE camera housing design.
Can't wait for this phone to arrive.
I am already impressed with the X200 Pro, so this one is going to be even better (especially since it runs OriginOS). https://t.co/lGf2TZBygS
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Alleged real-life photos of the vivo X200 Ultra have been leaked online, showing the HUGE camera housing design.
Can't wait for this phone to arrive.
I am already impressed with the X200 Pro, so this one is going to be even better (especially since it runs OriginOS). https://t.co/lGf2TZBygS
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The Investing for Beginners Podcast
American Express $AXP is unique in the payments world.
They operate as a closed loop system:
1. Acquiring bank
2. Issuing bank
3. Card network
Unlike $V and $MA, they do offer credit cards and act as the sole operator through the whole payment loop.
The more we know..... https://t.co/GyheZ7tzt5
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American Express $AXP is unique in the payments world.
They operate as a closed loop system:
1. Acquiring bank
2. Issuing bank
3. Card network
Unlike $V and $MA, they do offer credit cards and act as the sole operator through the whole payment loop.
The more we know..... https://t.co/GyheZ7tzt5
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Finding Compounders
Taken from Microsoft’s IPO prospectus
It was a great company from the beginning https://t.co/fshFkeMgAx
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Taken from Microsoft’s IPO prospectus
It was a great company from the beginning https://t.co/fshFkeMgAx
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The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors are pouring money into stocks at a rapid pace:
Retail net inflows into Nasdaq 100 index stocks as a percentage of market cap have reached 0.1%, the highest in at least a year.
Retail flows have DOUBLED in just a few weeks.
Additionally, JPMorgan’s retail investor sentiment score hit a record 4 points.
This is ~1 point higher than the peak of the meme stock mania in 2021.
Tesla, $TSLA, and Nvidia, $NVDA, were the most popular names picked up by individual investors.
Retail investors are all-in.
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Retail investors are pouring money into stocks at a rapid pace:
Retail net inflows into Nasdaq 100 index stocks as a percentage of market cap have reached 0.1%, the highest in at least a year.
Retail flows have DOUBLED in just a few weeks.
Additionally, JPMorgan’s retail investor sentiment score hit a record 4 points.
This is ~1 point higher than the peak of the meme stock mania in 2021.
Tesla, $TSLA, and Nvidia, $NVDA, were the most popular names picked up by individual investors.
Retail investors are all-in.
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The Investing for Beginners Podcast
Unlock the secret to valuing companies!
Introducing the Price to Book Ratio—a powerful tool comparing market value to book value.
Spot undervalued stocks and uncover hidden opportunities with this easy-to-understand graphic. https://t.co/2tJ6iHjJfo
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Unlock the secret to valuing companies!
Introducing the Price to Book Ratio—a powerful tool comparing market value to book value.
Spot undervalued stocks and uncover hidden opportunities with this easy-to-understand graphic. https://t.co/2tJ6iHjJfo
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Scott Franklin just filed multiple purchases Lockheed Martin stock, $LMT.
Lockheed Martin is a defense contractor.
Franklin sits on the House appropriations subcommittee on military construction.
We'll be keeping an eye on this. https://t.co/CviOIG8Zwu
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BREAKING: Representative Scott Franklin just filed multiple purchases Lockheed Martin stock, $LMT.
Lockheed Martin is a defense contractor.
Franklin sits on the House appropriations subcommittee on military construction.
We'll be keeping an eye on this. https://t.co/CviOIG8Zwu
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The Kobeissi Letter
US housing affordability is still getting worse:
The annual income needed to afford an average home in the US is now $124,200, an all-time high.
By comparison, the median US household income is $79,200, or a whopping $45,000 lower.
This makes the gap between income needed to buy a home and annual income the largest on record.
To put this into perspective, median household income was ~$3,000 higher than the income required to buy a home just 4 years ago.
This gap has widened at a faster pace than the lead up to the 2006 housing bubble.
Truly unprecedented times for housing.
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US housing affordability is still getting worse:
The annual income needed to afford an average home in the US is now $124,200, an all-time high.
By comparison, the median US household income is $79,200, or a whopping $45,000 lower.
This makes the gap between income needed to buy a home and annual income the largest on record.
To put this into perspective, median household income was ~$3,000 higher than the income required to buy a home just 4 years ago.
This gap has widened at a faster pace than the lead up to the 2006 housing bubble.
Truly unprecedented times for housing.
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