The Investing for Beginners Podcast
Howard Marks on 1st Level Thinking vs 2nd Level:
First-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, let’s buy the stock”. Second-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.
First-level thinking says, “The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.” Second-level thinking says, “The outlook stinks, but everyone else is selling in panic. Buy!
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Howard Marks on 1st Level Thinking vs 2nd Level:
First-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, let’s buy the stock”. Second-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.
First-level thinking says, “The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.” Second-level thinking says, “The outlook stinks, but everyone else is selling in panic. Buy!
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Offshore
Video
Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Can ROIIC show us improvements in business model?
Checking $GM 's ROIC during EV transition https://t.co/VYBFoI6Gal
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Can ROIIC show us improvements in business model?
Checking $GM 's ROIC during EV transition https://t.co/VYBFoI6Gal
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
The robots are coming!
Chamath: We are a couple of years away from autonomous robots in the house
On E217, @chamath broke down a video from @Figure_robot after CEO @adcock_brett announced they were accelerating their timeline to get robots into homes.
In the video, you can see two autonomous robots communicating and working together!
Chamath:
"(Brett is) going to be beta testing robots in the home by the middle to end of this year."
"In this example, what you're seeing are the two robots basically figuring out how to communicate semantically between (them), and that's incredibly powerful."
"The coolest part of this demo, by the way, which I loved, was they take an apple and then the second robot figures out that it should go in the fruit bowl (and) pushes the fruit bowl to the first robot."
@Jason:
"Oh, that's cool. There it is!"
Chamath:
"That level of semantic awareness and understanding between two models working dependently is very cool."
Jason:
"If they can make these for, what, Chamath, $20K? When do you think it becomes something a middle class household, you know, dual-income household would buy one of these?"
"We're probably a couple years away."
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The robots are coming!
Chamath: We are a couple of years away from autonomous robots in the house
On E217, @chamath broke down a video from @Figure_robot after CEO @adcock_brett announced they were accelerating their timeline to get robots into homes.
In the video, you can see two autonomous robots communicating and working together!
Chamath:
"(Brett is) going to be beta testing robots in the home by the middle to end of this year."
"In this example, what you're seeing are the two robots basically figuring out how to communicate semantically between (them), and that's incredibly powerful."
"The coolest part of this demo, by the way, which I loved, was they take an apple and then the second robot figures out that it should go in the fruit bowl (and) pushes the fruit bowl to the first robot."
@Jason:
"Oh, that's cool. There it is!"
Chamath:
"That level of semantic awareness and understanding between two models working dependently is very cool."
Jason:
"If they can make these for, what, Chamath, $20K? When do you think it becomes something a middle class household, you know, dual-income household would buy one of these?"
"We're probably a couple years away."
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Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US stocks extend gains on auto tariff delays, the S&P 500 is now over +100 points in 2 hours. https://t.co/1JgPhmeYA4
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BREAKING: US stocks extend gains on auto tariff delays, the S&P 500 is now over +100 points in 2 hours. https://t.co/1JgPhmeYA4
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Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US consumers are pulling back on spending:
The share of Americans planning vacations within 6 months has dropped ~5 percentage points, to 37%, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
This marks one of the largest monthly declines since the Conference Board Consumer Survey began.
Furthermore, Americans' perceived likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 67% in February, a 9-month high.
At the same time, 26% believe there will be fewer jobs available in the economy over the next 6 months, the highest share in 12 years.
Consumers feel like we are entering a recession.
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US consumers are pulling back on spending:
The share of Americans planning vacations within 6 months has dropped ~5 percentage points, to 37%, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
This marks one of the largest monthly declines since the Conference Board Consumer Survey began.
Furthermore, Americans' perceived likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 67% in February, a 9-month high.
At the same time, 26% believe there will be fewer jobs available in the economy over the next 6 months, the highest share in 12 years.
Consumers feel like we are entering a recession.
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Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
For those interested in buying the $NVDA dip, here's everything you need to know 👇 https://t.co/fWu8ppKHKZ
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For those interested in buying the $NVDA dip, here's everything you need to know 👇 https://t.co/fWu8ppKHKZ
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Generation IM on Kingspan $KGX ID
Thesis: Kingspan is a global leader in high-performance insulation solutions with strong growth potential due to low market penetration, stricter regulations, and expansion opportunities, despite some risks.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/6F3Oxoo4cz
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Generation IM on Kingspan $KGX ID
Thesis: Kingspan is a global leader in high-performance insulation solutions with strong growth potential due to low market penetration, stricter regulations, and expansion opportunities, despite some risks.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/6F3Oxoo4cz
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Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Shocking stat of the day:
Social benefits reflect nearly HALF of the US government's expenditures.
Social benefits as a share of $7.1 trillion government spending hit 45% in 2024, near an all-time high.
This percentage has surged by ~10 points since 2000.
During this period, Medicaid and Medicare's share of spending is up 2.8 and 3.6 percentage points to 9.4% and 10.9%, respectively.
At the same time, the "other benefits" portion has increased by 2.2 points to 9.9%.
Meanwhile, Social Security now reflects 14.6% of government spending.
Government spending is out of control.
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Shocking stat of the day:
Social benefits reflect nearly HALF of the US government's expenditures.
Social benefits as a share of $7.1 trillion government spending hit 45% in 2024, near an all-time high.
This percentage has surged by ~10 points since 2000.
During this period, Medicaid and Medicare's share of spending is up 2.8 and 3.6 percentage points to 9.4% and 10.9%, respectively.
At the same time, the "other benefits" portion has increased by 2.2 points to 9.9%.
Meanwhile, Social Security now reflects 14.6% of government spending.
Government spending is out of control.
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 9. Veeva Systems $VEEV 💻
2-Year Mean P/E: 35.93x
LTM P/E: 33.42x
LTM ROIC: 12% https://t.co/8MbPaGlg7i
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RT @DimitryNakhla: 9. Veeva Systems $VEEV 💻
2-Year Mean P/E: 35.93x
LTM P/E: 33.42x
LTM ROIC: 12% https://t.co/8MbPaGlg7i
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Forager on Wise $WISE LN
Thesis: Wise is a rapidly growing currency transfer app that enhances customer experience by consistently lowering fees and returning profits to users, fostering long-term growth through strategic partnerships with financial institutions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Forager on Wise $WISE LN
Thesis: Wise is a rapidly growing currency transfer app that enhances customer experience by consistently lowering fees and returning profits to users, fostering long-term growth through strategic partnerships with financial institutions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Inflation is surging:
US consumers believe inflation will rise to 6.0% over the next 12 months, the highest since May 2023.
This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly increase in expectations, according to the Conference Board survey.
Moreover, Americans believe prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next 5-10 years, a 30-year high.
Meanwhile, prices paid in regional manufacturing surveys in Philadelphia, New York, Kansas, and Texas all jumped to the highest since mid-2023.
Lastly, the prices paid index for services remained elevated at 60.4 points in January, the third-highest since February 2023.
Inflation is clearly HOT.
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Inflation is surging:
US consumers believe inflation will rise to 6.0% over the next 12 months, the highest since May 2023.
This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly increase in expectations, according to the Conference Board survey.
Moreover, Americans believe prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next 5-10 years, a 30-year high.
Meanwhile, prices paid in regional manufacturing surveys in Philadelphia, New York, Kansas, and Texas all jumped to the highest since mid-2023.
Lastly, the prices paid index for services remained elevated at 60.4 points in January, the third-highest since February 2023.
Inflation is clearly HOT.
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