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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan US Small Cap Growth Strategy on Flowserve $FLS US
Thesis: Flowserve is a leading provider of fluid motion and control products poised to benefit from rising natural gas production and increased oil production demands due to regulatory changes.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Artisan US Small Cap Growth Strategy on Flowserve $FLS US
Thesis: Flowserve is a leading provider of fluid motion and control products poised to benefit from rising natural gas production and increased oil production demands due to regulatory changes.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
Current situation:
1. The S&P 500 is falling like a global trade war has begun
2. Oil prices are falling like we are heading into a recession
3. Gold prices are rising like inflation is on the rise
4. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining
5. Crypto is falling like risk appetite has collapsed
6. Tech stocks are falling like DeepSeek is back
Are you ready for the most volatile market in history?
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Current situation:
1. The S&P 500 is falling like a global trade war has begun
2. Oil prices are falling like we are heading into a recession
3. Gold prices are rising like inflation is on the rise
4. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining
5. Crypto is falling like risk appetite has collapsed
6. Tech stocks are falling like DeepSeek is back
Are you ready for the most volatile market in history?
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, surges more than +22% on the day following Trump's tariff announcements.
It's now up +60% since February 14th. https://t.co/4FOeronQ7M
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BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, surges more than +22% on the day following Trump's tariff announcements.
It's now up +60% since February 14th. https://t.co/4FOeronQ7M
Something is happening:
The Volatility Index, $VIX, just surged above 20 for its 6th STRAIGHT day.
Since February 14th, the Volatility Index is now up +45% and the S&P 500 has seen near-daily swings of $500B+.
Are you ready for the era of volatility?
(a thread) https://t.co/kh3yp4JjVF tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is incredible:
Nvidia is now BELOW its low seen after the DeepSeek drop on February 3rd.
Since February 18th, Nvidia has now erased -$730 BILLION of market cap.
Do not get comfortable in this market. https://t.co/zAAbCMmwG6
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This is incredible:
Nvidia is now BELOW its low seen after the DeepSeek drop on February 3rd.
Since February 18th, Nvidia has now erased -$730 BILLION of market cap.
Do not get comfortable in this market. https://t.co/zAAbCMmwG6
Current situation:
1. The S&P 500 is falling like a global trade war has begun
2. Oil prices are falling like we are heading into a recession
3. Gold prices are rising like inflation is on the rise
4. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining
5. Crypto is falling like risk appetite has collapsed
6. Tech stocks are falling like DeepSeek is back
Are you ready for the most volatile market in history? tweet
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Alvin
Samsung Display shows off some crazy new concepts at MWC 2025.
✅ Flexible Briefcase: this cabinbag unfolds into an 18.1" tablet
✅ Flex Gaming: a 7.2" gaming console with a foldable screen
✅ Next-gen OCF OLED panel that allows for a 5,000 nits peak brightness in a 10% window, while still being energy-efficient
✅ OLED Seamless Experience/Seamless Colour Studio: allows you to enjoy the same display quality across all your devices, from smartphones, tablets, laptops, to TVs
✅ Winning Edge lineup: world's first 27" 500 Hz QD-OLED monitor, 240 Hz OLED laptops, and a 15.6" OLED display
There are several other display panel concepts that they're showing off, but those are the most exciting ones so far.
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Samsung Display shows off some crazy new concepts at MWC 2025.
✅ Flexible Briefcase: this cabinbag unfolds into an 18.1" tablet
✅ Flex Gaming: a 7.2" gaming console with a foldable screen
✅ Next-gen OCF OLED panel that allows for a 5,000 nits peak brightness in a 10% window, while still being energy-efficient
✅ OLED Seamless Experience/Seamless Colour Studio: allows you to enjoy the same display quality across all your devices, from smartphones, tablets, laptops, to TVs
✅ Winning Edge lineup: world's first 27" 500 Hz QD-OLED monitor, 240 Hz OLED laptops, and a 15.6" OLED display
There are several other display panel concepts that they're showing off, but those are the most exciting ones so far.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 8 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V stock rallied +42% ✅ — Also, that was essentially the lowest price that $V traded for moving forward 🎯
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
___
I do not throw words around carelessly. When I called $V “one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market,” I meant every bit of it.
Since then, $V has delivered ~5x the return of $SPY and has climbed in price with impressive consistency.
Yes, I can understand that the allure of growth stocks & making quick gains may entice you. Yet, you cannot tell me that there is something better than generating >40% return, in less than a year, while being an owner of the world’s highest-quality business.
Best of all, you can hold $V without losing sleep or constantly checking its price.
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by[...]
Less than 8 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V stock rallied +42% ✅ — Also, that was essentially the lowest price that $V traded for moving forward 🎯
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
___
I do not throw words around carelessly. When I called $V “one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market,” I meant every bit of it.
Since then, $V has delivered ~5x the return of $SPY and has climbed in price with impressive consistency.
Yes, I can understand that the allure of growth stocks & making quick gains may entice you. Yet, you cannot tell me that there is something better than generating >40% return, in less than a year, while being an owner of the world’s highest-quality business.
Best of all, you can hold $V without losing sleep or constantly checking its price.
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by[...]