Quiver Quantitative
New Tucker Carlson interview on congressional stock trading, with Chris Josephs from @JoinAutopilot_
Featuring discussion on trading by Nancy Pelsosi, Dan Crenshaw, and more.
Quiver gets a little mention near the 40 minute mark:
tweet
New Tucker Carlson interview on congressional stock trading, with Chris Josephs from @JoinAutopilot_
Featuring discussion on trading by Nancy Pelsosi, Dan Crenshaw, and more.
Quiver gets a little mention near the 40 minute mark:
Congress is even more corrupt than you may understand. Chris Josephs runs Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker on X and has all the details.
(0:00) The Man Behind the Famous X Account, Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker
(2:53) The Senator Scandal That Started It All
(11:47) How Is Nancy Pelosi’s Net Worth So High?
(25:10) How Pelosi Outperforms Professional Stock Traders
(31:12) Dan Crenshaw Is Out of Control
(35:36) How Corrupt Politicians Rigged the System for Their Own Benefit
(48:18) Why Every Effort to Ban Insider Trading Has Failed
(55:26) Politicians That Own War Stocks and Push for War
(1:07:18) Why Is Jim Cramer So Horrible at His Job?
(1:12:02) Stop Investing in These Anti-American Companies
Includes paid partnerships. tweet
twitter.com
undefined
undefined
Offshore
Video
Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
ROIC + Executive Compensation =Alpha?
Calculating ROIC for $INSW https://t.co/hxFtm3z1Js
tweet
ROIC + Executive Compensation =Alpha?
Calculating ROIC for $INSW https://t.co/hxFtm3z1Js
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.75x
•10-Year Mean: 37.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.41%
•10-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.05B
•Long-Term Debt: $15.60M
$SNPS has a strong balance sheet & 40x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
$SNPS has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $2.06B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 11.52%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 11.11%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.53
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 17.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 157.71M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 155.94M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 23.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.38% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (15.38%) required growth rate:
2025E: $14.89 (12.8% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $17.15 (15.2% YoY)
2027E: $19.86 (15.8% YoY)
$SNPS has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $SNPS ends 2027 with $19.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $635.52💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $615.66💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $595.80💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
29x P/E: $575.94💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $566.08💵 … ~7.5% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~30x multiple, making $SNPS a good purchase today at $457💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
$SNPS offers a stellar way to tap into the semiconductor boom, delivering steady, predictable growth and reliable recurring revenue for investors seeking stability in the space
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $400💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~12.5% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $400💵 I can reasonably expect ~11.5% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 27x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.75x
•10-Year Mean: 37.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.41%
•10-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.05B
•Long-Term Debt: $15.60M
$SNPS has a strong balance sheet & 40x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
$SNPS has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $2.06B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 11.52%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 11.11%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.53
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 17.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 157.71M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 155.94M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 23.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.38% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (15.38%) required growth rate:
2025E: $14.89 (12.8% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $17.15 (15.2% YoY)
2027E: $19.86 (15.8% YoY)
$SNPS has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $SNPS ends 2027 with $19.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $635.52💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $615.66💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $595.80💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
29x P/E: $575.94💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $566.08💵 … ~7.5% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~30x multiple, making $SNPS a good purchase today at $457💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
$SNPS offers a stellar way to tap into the semiconductor boom, delivering steady, predictable growth and reliable recurring revenue for investors seeking stability in the space
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $400💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~12.5% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $400💵 I can reasonably expect ~11.5% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 27x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 30.75x •10-Year Mean: 37.51x •NTM FCF Yield: 2.41% •10-Year Mean: 2.67% As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value…
𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
Good news on #Exor
Selling 4% in $RACE for €1B buyback and a new acquisition.
Makes a lot of sense! https://t.co/WYW9FTOKmj
tweet
Good news on #Exor
Selling 4% in $RACE for €1B buyback and a new acquisition.
Makes a lot of sense! https://t.co/WYW9FTOKmj
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Opportunity Fund on Inari Medical, Inc. $NARI US
Thesis: Inari Medical, Inc. is a promising investment due to its innovative catheter-based devices for treating venous thromboembolism and its potential for significant market growth, which attracted Stryker's acquisition offer.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Baron Opportunity Fund on Inari Medical, Inc. $NARI US
Thesis: Inari Medical, Inc. is a promising investment due to its innovative catheter-based devices for treating venous thromboembolism and its potential for significant market growth, which attracted Stryker's acquisition offer.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Mads Capital
$NVDA ER https://t.co/8KYSGirdbQ
tweet
$NVDA ER https://t.co/8KYSGirdbQ
Take the biggest fcking risk of your entire life right now. tweet