⁠App Economy Insights
🇫🇷 Luxury leaders, visualized.

These giants have a certain je ne sais quoi—yet most had a tough year.

👜 LVMH
🐎 Hermès
💄 L’Oréal
🕶️ EssilorLuxottica
👗 Kering

Let’s dive in. 👇
https://t.co/wJrJL29QCi
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: We have received data on the portfolio of Michael Kratsios - Trump's pick for the director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

He owns up to $250,000 of Bitcoin and $50,000 of Ethereum. https://t.co/QQKqhA71OE
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⁠Investing visuals
I wrote my last post to spark debate on the $GRAB investment thesis.

I cut some corners and jumped to (incorrect) conclusions though. I've got some great feedback and insights from the FinX community, so here’s a detailed $GRAB follow-up 🧵👇 https://t.co/bnIbEphRWj
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
AVI Global Special Situations Fund on Chrysalis $CHRY LN

Thesis: Starling Bank is a digital-first UK challenger bank with significant cost advantages and strong profitability prospects, while Klarna is a leading global payments provider expected to IPO in 2024, potentially realizing substantial value for the Chrysalis portfolio.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Wow.

In May, we noticed a U.S. Representative buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.

Rheinmetall stock, $RNMBY, has now risen 66% since.

It's up 28% another this week: https://t.co/1Re2WkkHTb
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⁠Startup Archive
Jeff Bezos explains how he decided to quit his job and start Amazon

At 30 years old, Jeff Bezos had great Wall Street job working at the hedge fund D.E. Shaw. When he told his boss David Shaw about his idea to start an internet book store, David replied:

“I think this is a good idea, but it would be an even better idea for somebody who didn’t already have a good job.”

That made logical sense to Jeff, but he ultimately decided that the best way to make a very personal decision like this was to project himself forward to age 80:

“When I’m 80 years old, I want to have minimized the number of regrets that I have. I don’t want to be 80 years old, in a quiet moment of reflection, thinking back over my life and cataloging a bunch of major regrets.”

And Jeff believes that our biggest regrets are acts of omission:

“It’s paths not taken that haunt us. We wonder what would have happened: I loved that person and I never told them, and then they married somebody else.”

Once Jeff thought about it this way, the answer was immediately obvious to him:

“I knew that when I’m 80, I would never regret trying this thing that I was super excited about and failing. If it failed, fine. I would be very proud of the fact when I’m 80 that I tried. And I also knew that it would always haunt me if I didn’t try.”

Jeff believes this regret-minimization framework is a useful lens for any important life decision.

Video source: @Summit (2017)
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @soleio: The surest way to shape the future:

Write science fiction for tomorrow’s builders

Palmer Luckey explains why science fiction is a great place to look for ideas

“One of the things that I’ve realized in my career is that nothing I ever come up with will be new. I’ve literally never come up with an idea that a science fiction author has not come up with before.”

Palmer continues:

“It makes sense. There’s a lot of [science fiction authors]. They’ve been around for a long time. And they don’t have to make things. And they don’t have to wait for the right moment. I started Oculus at just the right moment for it to succeed. But a science fiction author doesn’t have to wait for something to be possible to think about it and to write about it and for people to be excited about the idea. And so every time I’ve come up with something, I’ve been able to find — usually many, sometimes one — science fiction pieces addressing literally exactly that idea by some guy who just thought about it like 50 years ago.”

He gives a few examples:

“Some of the stuff that I’m building today, for example, in the AR/VR space around augmenting the vision of soldiers — these are ideas that are from 1959 Starship Troopers novels. These are old ideas that have only recently become technologically feasible. The idea of autonomous fighter jets, that’s been around for about 100 years… people have been thinking about this since computers were programmed with punchcards.”

So if you’re having a hard time thinking of startup ideas, try reading science fiction.

Video source: @ShawnRyan762 (2025) - Startup Archive
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⁠Finding Compounders
Is inflation the investors enemy .

I go into the effect of inflation on your stocks - the full post is on my free newsletter .

The link is in my bio https://t.co/WSJFlJ7ThI
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.83x
•5-Year Mean: 24.89x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.89%
•5-Year Mean: 3.61%

As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $5.57B
•Long-Term Debt: $29.06B

$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•2024: 9.6%

*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 13.1%

$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $16.89B
•2024: $42.88B
•CAGR: 9.76%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $2.19B
•2024: $7.27B
•CAGR: 12.74%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $6.96
•2024: $21.86
•CAGR: 12.12%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 402.30M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 42.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (11.42%) required growth rate:

2025E: $23.33 (6.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $25.82 (10.7% YoY)
2027E: $29.11 (12.7% YoY)

$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $TMO ends 2027 with $29.11 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

26x P/E: $756.86💵 … ~13.2% CAGR

25x P/E: $727.75💵 … ~11.7% CAGR

24x P/E: $698.64💵 … ~10.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $669.53💵 … ~8.5% CAGR

As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >25x earnings and decent return potential at 24x

Also, $TMO maintains strong support ~20x earnings (roughly 12.4% below today’s price)

$TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand (AI tailwinds in scientific research), especially their next-gen sequencing machines & chromatography machines

Those buying $TMO today at $532💵 are buying it for a good price, with some margin of safety

I consider $TMO a strong purchase at $500💵 (6% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮�[...]