Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Alger Mid Cap Growth Fund on AppLovin $APP US
Thesis: AppLovin is an advertising technology company leveraging AI to enhance app marketing and monetization, expanding beyond mobile gaming while gaining a competitive edge through its data-driven platform.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Alger Mid Cap Growth Fund on AppLovin $APP US
Thesis: AppLovin is an advertising technology company leveraging AI to enhance app marketing and monetization, expanding beyond mobile gaming while gaining a competitive edge through its data-driven platform.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
AkhenOsiris
NVDA, PLTR, and now APP...the first and the last, shorts are convinced margins will die (history says that's a good argument). PLTR trading at levels where they need to sustain like 50% growth for the next 5-7 yrs ๐
The problem, as always, is timing. My PLTR puts have already gone to waste. NVDA/GPUs was supposed to peak in early 2024 (go read 2023 posts, seems laughable now). Can't even count anymore how many times the NVDA top has been called.
APP? I hope it keeps running so Larry Balik goes insolvent. After that, let it crash and burn ๐ฅ
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NVDA, PLTR, and now APP...the first and the last, shorts are convinced margins will die (history says that's a good argument). PLTR trading at levels where they need to sustain like 50% growth for the next 5-7 yrs ๐
The problem, as always, is timing. My PLTR puts have already gone to waste. NVDA/GPUs was supposed to peak in early 2024 (go read 2023 posts, seems laughable now). Can't even count anymore how many times the NVDA top has been called.
APP? I hope it keeps running so Larry Balik goes insolvent. After that, let it crash and burn ๐ฅ
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AkhenOsiris
Zuck toying with the street now, pushing the expense envelope to see if market gives him a pass.
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Zuck toying with the street now, pushing the expense envelope to see if market gives him a pass.
META PLANS MAJOR INVESTMENT INTO AI-POWERED HUMANOID ROBOTS. - FinancialJuicetweet
AkhenOsiris
Markets are broken, took TSM a whole 3-4 mins to react to this.
Did all you whiny alpha whores take advantage?
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Markets are broken, took TSM a whole 3-4 mins to react to this.
Did all you whiny alpha whores take advantage?
๐ด TSMC CONSIDERS OPERATING US INTEL FACTORIES AFTER TRUMP REQUEST. - FinancialJuicetweet
Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Health Care Fund on Natera, Inc. $NTRA US
Thesis: Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on womenโs health and oncology, offering a promising blood-based DNA test called Signatera that detects residual cancer DNA to inform treatment decisions and monitor recurrence, showing strong growth potential in a $20 billion market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Baron Health Care Fund on Natera, Inc. $NTRA US
Thesis: Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on womenโs health and oncology, offering a promising blood-based DNA test called Signatera that detects residual cancer DNA to inform treatment decisions and monitor recurrence, showing strong growth potential in a $20 billion market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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โ Quiver Quantitative
Another multimillion view post with wildly inaccurate net worth numbers.
There is no need to rely on made up numbers to show that many politicians are making millions in the stock market.
You can see live net worth estimates for members of Congress on Quiver.
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Another multimillion view post with wildly inaccurate net worth numbers.
There is no need to rely on made up numbers to show that many politicians are making millions in the stock market.
You can see live net worth estimates for members of Congress on Quiver.
Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett has a reported net worth of $9 million despite being paid $174,000/year.
Jasmine Crockett owns
$2M townhouse in Dallas
$1.5M loft in Austin, Texas
$1.5M lakefront cabin in Galveston, Texas.
Crockettโs net worth grew substantially last year during the 2024 election.
Do you think members of Congress use their positions to self enrich themselves? tweet
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
โHaving a margin of safety is like an insurance policy that helps prevent us from overpayingโ it mitigates the damage caused by over optimistic estimates.โ
โ Pat Dorsey ๐ฃ๏ธ
Ensuring you have a margin of safety when investing leads to:
Heads I win; Tails I win, but not as much.
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โHaving a margin of safety is like an insurance policy that helps prevent us from overpayingโ it mitigates the damage caused by over optimistic estimates.โ
โ Pat Dorsey ๐ฃ๏ธ
Ensuring you have a margin of safety when investing leads to:
Heads I win; Tails I win, but not as much.
tweet
Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Warren Buffett just filed a portfolio update.
He opened a new position in Constellation Brands, $STZ.
Full holdings up on Quiver. https://t.co/ZX7NCZSiVN
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BREAKING: Warren Buffett just filed a portfolio update.
He opened a new position in Constellation Brands, $STZ.
Full holdings up on Quiver. https://t.co/ZX7NCZSiVN
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Dev Kantesaria | VFCM 13F Q4 24โ
$FICO $SPGI $MA $MCO $V $INTU $ASML $EFX $MSCI
___
The CRAZY thing:
I pitched $MSCI to Dev on April 23, 2024 when it traded for $444 (many of you may remember that analysis) ๐
Wouldโve been great to see Dev pick it up at historic levels then https://t.co/V2CUhqcxI6
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
โข10-Year Mean: 34.93x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 23.4%
โข2020: 28.6%
โข2021: 26.5%
โข2022: 33.0%
โข2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2019: (463.5%)
โข2020: (231.5%)
โข2021: (239.3%)
โข2022: (148.6%)
โข2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $913.36M
โข2023: $2,528.92M
โขCAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $280.93M
โข2023: $1,213.27M
โขCAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.16
โข2023: $13.52
โขCAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92๐ต โฆ ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446๐ต my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as youโll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, Iโd likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380๐ต - $400๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ[...]
Dev Kantesaria | VFCM 13F Q4 24โ
$FICO $SPGI $MA $MCO $V $INTU $ASML $EFX $MSCI
___
The CRAZY thing:
I pitched $MSCI to Dev on April 23, 2024 when it traded for $444 (many of you may remember that analysis) ๐
Wouldโve been great to see Dev pick it up at historic levels then https://t.co/V2CUhqcxI6
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
โข10-Year Mean: 34.93x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 23.4%
โข2020: 28.6%
โข2021: 26.5%
โข2022: 33.0%
โข2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2019: (463.5%)
โข2020: (231.5%)
โข2021: (239.3%)
โข2022: (148.6%)
โข2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $913.36M
โข2023: $2,528.92M
โขCAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $280.93M
โข2023: $1,213.27M
โขCAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.16
โข2023: $13.52
โขCAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92๐ต โฆ ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446๐ต my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as youโll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, Iโd likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380๐ต - $400๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ[...]