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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan International Explorer Strategy on Sabre $SBRE LN
Thesis: Sabre is a UK auto insurance company with a 1%โ2% market share, boasting the industry's most profitable business due to conservative pricing and a new growth strategy aimed at achieving a 10% profit CAGR without sacrificing underwriting discipline, while currently offering a nearly 10% total yield in dividends.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Artisan International Explorer Strategy on Sabre $SBRE LN
Thesis: Sabre is a UK auto insurance company with a 1%โ2% market share, boasting the industry's most profitable business due to conservative pricing and a new growth strategy aimed at achieving a 10% profit CAGR without sacrificing underwriting discipline, while currently offering a nearly 10% total yield in dividends.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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โ Read
RT @TihoBrkan: Alibabaโs $BABA new CEO disagrees with US large techโs insane R&D and CapEx spend.
If youโre read between the words, he is suggesting that much of those billions is wasted in an arms race which will most likely not deliver ROIs.
Instead of making the best possible model by spending ridiculous amounts of money, the focus should be on real world applications โ solving the important issues and problems of humanity.
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RT @TihoBrkan: Alibabaโs $BABA new CEO disagrees with US large techโs insane R&D and CapEx spend.
If youโre read between the words, he is suggesting that much of those billions is wasted in an arms race which will most likely not deliver ROIs.
Instead of making the best possible model by spending ridiculous amounts of money, the focus should be on real world applications โ solving the important issues and problems of humanity.
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $TMO ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.83x
โข5-Year Mean: 24.89x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.89%
โข5-Year Mean: 3.61%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading slightly below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $5.57B
โขLong-Term Debt: $29.06B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ *
โข2019: 8.3%
โข2020: 13.4%
โข2021: 12.8%
โข2022: 10.3%
โข2023: 8.7%
โข2024: 9.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 12.9%
โข2020: 19.9%
โข2021: 20.5%
โข2022: 16.4%
โข2023: 13.1%
โข2024: 13.1%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $16.89B
โข2024: $42.88B
โขCAGR: 9.76%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $2.19B
โข2024: $7.27B
โขCAGR: 12.74%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $6.96
โข2024: $21.86
โขCAGR: 12.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 402.30M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 42.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 18.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 14.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (11.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $23.33 (6.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $25.82 (10.7% YoY)
2027E: $29.11 (12.7% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $TMO ends 2027 with $29.11 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $756.86๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
25x P/E: $727.75๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
24x P/E: $698.64๐ต โฆ ~10.2% CAGR
23x P/E: $669.53๐ต โฆ ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >25x earnings and decent return potential at 24x
Also, $TMO maintains strong support ~20x earnings (roughly 12.4% below todayโs price)
$TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand (AI tailwinds in scientific research), especially their next-gen sequencing machines & chromatography machines
Those buying $TMO today at $532๐ต are buying it for a good price, with some margin of safety
I consider $TMO a strong purchase at $500๐ต (6% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๏ฟฝ[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $TMO ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.83x
โข5-Year Mean: 24.89x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.89%
โข5-Year Mean: 3.61%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading slightly below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $5.57B
โขLong-Term Debt: $29.06B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ *
โข2019: 8.3%
โข2020: 13.4%
โข2021: 12.8%
โข2022: 10.3%
โข2023: 8.7%
โข2024: 9.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 12.9%
โข2020: 19.9%
โข2021: 20.5%
โข2022: 16.4%
โข2023: 13.1%
โข2024: 13.1%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $16.89B
โข2024: $42.88B
โขCAGR: 9.76%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $2.19B
โข2024: $7.27B
โขCAGR: 12.74%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $6.96
โข2024: $21.86
โขCAGR: 12.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 402.30M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 42.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 18.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 14.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (11.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $23.33 (6.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $25.82 (10.7% YoY)
2027E: $29.11 (12.7% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $TMO ends 2027 with $29.11 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $756.86๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
25x P/E: $727.75๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
24x P/E: $698.64๐ต โฆ ~10.2% CAGR
23x P/E: $669.53๐ต โฆ ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >25x earnings and decent return potential at 24x
Also, $TMO maintains strong support ~20x earnings (roughly 12.4% below todayโs price)
$TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand (AI tailwinds in scientific research), especially their next-gen sequencing machines & chromatography machines
Those buying $TMO today at $532๐ต are buying it for a good price, with some margin of safety
I consider $TMO a strong purchase at $500๐ต (6% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ A quality valuation analysis on $TMO ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.83x โข5-Year Mean: 24.89x โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.89% โข5-Year Mean: 3.61% As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading slightly below fair value Going forward, investorsโฆ
๏ฟฝ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Chris Hohn | TCI Fund Management 13F Q4 24โ
Notable adds: $MSFT
Notable sales: $CNI https://t.co/5Vb5GrKgOo
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Chris Hohn | TCI Fund Management 13F Q4 24โ
Notable adds: $MSFT
Notable sales: $CNI https://t.co/5Vb5GrKgOo
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โ App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon is outspending everyone.
๐ฐ $100B+ in CapEx for 2025.
โ๏ธ AWS is racing to meet AI demand.
While Big Tech hands cash to investors, Amazon reinvests everything.
Letโs break it down.
https://t.co/Jo7W44tZfC
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$AMZN Amazon is outspending everyone.
๐ฐ $100B+ in CapEx for 2025.
โ๏ธ AWS is racing to meet AI demand.
While Big Tech hands cash to investors, Amazon reinvests everything.
Letโs break it down.
https://t.co/Jo7W44tZfC
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative John Larson has introduced legislation that require Elon Musk to file a public financial disclosure.
It's called the "Ending DOGE Conflicts Act"
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/hHHtInu6dl
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RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative John Larson has introduced legislation that require Elon Musk to file a public financial disclosure.
It's called the "Ending DOGE Conflicts Act"
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/hHHtInu6dl
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