⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
After properly assessing the company’s overvaluation, here’s a brief update on $MANH

Using 2027 EPS estimate of $5.85:

45x P/E: $263.25💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

40x P/E: $234.00💵 … ~7.9% CAGR

35x P/E: $204.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR

I’d have to assume >40x given today’s estimates which leaves me with no margin of safety

While it is an excellent business, I’d likely get more interested in $MANH closer to $170💵 where I could reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 35x multiple

10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵

I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵

Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉

As I stated in my analysis:

“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential

While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate

In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns

While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵

Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”

#stocks #investing - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Another reputable & successful hedge fund just made one of their biggest adds to their holdings — a stock I suggested was attractive 💸

The stock?

$TMO 🔬

As of the latest 13F filing, William Von Mueffling increased Cantillon’s $TMO position by ~16% https://t.co/DJ50oVx6SZ

Two months ago I stated:

“I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a margin of safety”

$TMO traded at my target price for less than 24 hours 📈 https://t.co/r2awaMkY7L - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Aoris on Sherwin-Williams $SHW US

Thesis: Sherwin-Williams is the world's largest paint and coatings company with a dominant market share in the US professional painters segment and exclusive supply agreements with major home builders.

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/abGbRu8lDk
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $MBX has just reported purchasing $535K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 6%.

This is the first insider trade he has reported since the company had its IPO last September.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Since hitting my target accumulation price, shares of MercadoLibre $MELI have rallied +15%

This is a bit unfortunate as I would’ve preferred for $MELI stock to continue declining & reach an even lower level so I could add another tranche of shares https://t.co/NggebbFgsC

$MELI traded below my target accumulation price of $1,700 for less than 48 hours 🎯 https://t.co/QUeCkbQz0z - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Capital Employed
Another batch of excellent Q4 2024 letters just added.

Including excellent letters from...

@Whit_Huguley
@dsmoak98
@HorizonKinetics

108 letters in total now.

This is a treasure trove of insights and potential ideas… 👇

https://t.co/Dndl7wcMwK https://t.co/7mQM7SnLeq
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Staffing 360 $STAF held a special meeting of stockholders on February 3, 2025 -

The meeting was held to vote on two proposals: approving the Planned Merger with Atlantic International $ATLN and approving the option to adjourn the meeting.

The majority approved the Adjournment Proposal, and the meeting was then adjourned to February 10, 2025.
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⁠InsideArbitrage
RT @business: Nissan is seeking out a new partner as it prepares to end negotiations to form a joint holding company with Honda, people familiar with the matter said. https://t.co/xB23Vk3Jro
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⁠InsideArbitrage
RT @Reuters: Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida met with his Honda counterpart Toshihiro Mibe to tell him he wants to scrap their memorandum of understanding to discuss a possible merger, one person with knowledge of the matter said https://t.co/QB5KzWD8Ec
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Makes me think whether #Kering really has a moat or just sells expensive (high-margin) stuff with a hit-or-miss approach.
Was on my Luxury Goods watchlist, but the difference with the ones like Richemont, LVMH and Hermes is huge. https://t.co/SWbPqQM2UJ
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