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InsideArbitrage
RT @Reuters: Renault to defend its interests amid reports of end of Honda-Nissan merger talks https://t.co/EMJUTSnQpI https://t.co/kyvkYERsAl
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RT @Reuters: Renault to defend its interests amid reports of end of Honda-Nissan merger talks https://t.co/EMJUTSnQpI https://t.co/kyvkYERsAl
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options:
How it started........how it's going https://t.co/rz6D4ca5yP
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Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options:
How it started........how it's going https://t.co/rz6D4ca5yP
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
iPhone co-creator Tony Fadell on how to choose a company to work for
The most important question to ask yourself, Tony believes, is:
“What do you want to learn, and who do you want to learn from?”
He explains:
“Don’t just go and say ‘I want to work at Google’ or ‘I want to work at Apple’. You want to go to a certain team with a certain set of people and work with them on something that you’re really curious about… Most people go where they can make the most money in their position, but you should be starting with the ‘why’: what’s your curiosity and what do you want to learn? I took the lowest job on the totem pole at General Magic because I wanted to get in there to work with the right team… The way you figure out what you want to do in life is by figuring out what you don’t want to do.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2022)
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iPhone co-creator Tony Fadell on how to choose a company to work for
The most important question to ask yourself, Tony believes, is:
“What do you want to learn, and who do you want to learn from?”
He explains:
“Don’t just go and say ‘I want to work at Google’ or ‘I want to work at Apple’. You want to go to a certain team with a certain set of people and work with them on something that you’re really curious about… Most people go where they can make the most money in their position, but you should be starting with the ‘why’: what’s your curiosity and what do you want to learn? I took the lowest job on the totem pole at General Magic because I wanted to get in there to work with the right team… The way you figure out what you want to do in life is by figuring out what you don’t want to do.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2022)
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Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
NEW: We just released a dashboard that lets you track proposed bills and see:
- AI analysis of the bill text
- Bill sponsors, their corporate donors, and portfolios
- Companies lobbying on the bill
- Politicians trading stock in those companies
I'm hoping to add bill cost estimates soon.
Follow here for updates.
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NEW: We just released a dashboard that lets you track proposed bills and see:
- AI analysis of the bill text
- Bill sponsors, their corporate donors, and portfolios
- Companies lobbying on the bill
- Politicians trading stock in those companies
I'm hoping to add bill cost estimates soon.
Follow here for updates.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aristotle Core Equity on CrowdStrike Holdings $CRWD US
Thesis: CrowdStrike Holdings is well-positioned for substantial growth in the cloud cybersecurity market due to its innovative products, early-mover advantage, and strong customer retention in the face of increasing cyber threats.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Aristotle Core Equity on CrowdStrike Holdings $CRWD US
Thesis: CrowdStrike Holdings is well-positioned for substantial growth in the cloud cybersecurity market due to its innovative products, early-mover advantage, and strong customer retention in the face of increasing cyber threats.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aristotle International Equity on Cameco $CCO CN
Thesis: Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the robust demand for nuclear energy, supported by its tier-one assets, strategic contracts, and increasing production outlook.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/tYYVjFNv1Q
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Aristotle International Equity on Cameco $CCO CN
Thesis: Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the robust demand for nuclear energy, supported by its tier-one assets, strategic contracts, and increasing production outlook.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/tYYVjFNv1Q
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
#stocks #investing
A sober valuation analysis on $MANH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 70.66x
•5-Year Mean: 61.90x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.63%
•5-Year Mean: 2.11%
As you can see, $MANH appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MANH is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $270.74M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MANH has a strong balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 91.0%
•2019: 66.3%
•2020: 46.2%
•2021: 49.1%
•2022: 63.4%
•2023: 69.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 65.0%
•2019: 59.3%
•2020: 48.3%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 54.0%
•2023: 69.9%
$MANH has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $414.52M
•2023: $928.73M
•CAGR: 8.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $84.65M
•2023: $241.49M
•CAGR: 11.05%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.92
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 15.05%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 75.84M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 62.61M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17.4%, $MANH increased its EPS by ~21.0% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 19.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MANH has to grow earnings at a 35.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (35.33%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.77 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.36 (15.9% YoY)
2026E: $5.08 (16.4% YoY)
$MANH has a solid track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MANH ends 2026 with $5.08 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
60x P/E: $304.80💵 … ~6.1% CAGR
57x P/E: $289.56💵 … ~4.2% CAGR
54x P/E: $274.32💵 … ~2.2% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
#stocks #investing
A sober valuation analysis on $MANH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 70.66x
•5-Year Mean: 61.90x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.63%
•5-Year Mean: 2.11%
As you can see, $MANH appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MANH is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $270.74M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MANH has a strong balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 91.0%
•2019: 66.3%
•2020: 46.2%
•2021: 49.1%
•2022: 63.4%
•2023: 69.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 65.0%
•2019: 59.3%
•2020: 48.3%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 54.0%
•2023: 69.9%
$MANH has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $414.52M
•2023: $928.73M
•CAGR: 8.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $84.65M
•2023: $241.49M
•CAGR: 11.05%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.92
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 15.05%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 75.84M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 62.61M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17.4%, $MANH increased its EPS by ~21.0% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 19.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MANH has to grow earnings at a 35.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (35.33%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.77 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.36 (15.9% YoY)
2026E: $5.08 (16.4% YoY)
$MANH has a solid track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MANH ends 2026 with $5.08 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
60x P/E: $304.80💵 … ~6.1% CAGR
57x P/E: $289.56💵 … ~4.2% CAGR
54x P/E: $274.32💵 … ~2.2% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢[...]