Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $DDD is up almost 20% so far today, and is now up 25% since we reported on their CEO's insider purchase in December https://t.co/wsiCqbHoGi
tweet
RT @InsiderRadar: $DDD is up almost 20% so far today, and is now up 25% since we reported on their CEO's insider purchase in December https://t.co/wsiCqbHoGi
๐จBREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $DDD has reported the purchase of ~$230K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 6%.
This is the first insider purchase he has reported in over 2 years tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.69x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
โขLong-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $136.82B
โข2024E: $307.39
โขCAGR: 18.15%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $11.42B
โข2024E: $75.45B
โขCAGR: 20.78%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.28
โข2024E: $7.98
โขCAGR: 20.08%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.74% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.74%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.98 (37.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $9.00 (12.7% YoY)
2026E: $10.25 (13.9% YoY)
2027E: $11.86 (15.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $274.64๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $272.78๐ต โฆ ~10.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $260.92๐ต โฆ ~8.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $249.06๐ต โฆ ~7.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $237.20๐ต โฆ ~5.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >23x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >24x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~24x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying $GOOG today at $206๐ต are getting a great business at a fair price
Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead
I consider $GOOG a strong buy with a substantial margin of safety closer to $180๐ต where I could conservatively expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 20x multiple
$GOOGL
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๏ฟฝ[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.69x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
โขLong-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $136.82B
โข2024E: $307.39
โขCAGR: 18.15%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $11.42B
โข2024E: $75.45B
โขCAGR: 20.78%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.28
โข2024E: $7.98
โขCAGR: 20.08%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.74% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.74%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.98 (37.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $9.00 (12.7% YoY)
2026E: $10.25 (13.9% YoY)
2027E: $11.86 (15.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $274.64๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $272.78๐ต โฆ ~10.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $260.92๐ต โฆ ~8.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $249.06๐ต โฆ ~7.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $237.20๐ต โฆ ~5.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >23x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >24x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~24x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying $GOOG today at $206๐ต are getting a great business at a fair price
Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead
I consider $GOOG a strong buy with a substantial margin of safety closer to $180๐ต where I could conservatively expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 20x multiple
$GOOGL
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x โข10-Year Mean: 23.69x โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.77% โข10-Year Mean: 4.18% As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value Going forward, investorsโฆ
๏ฟฝ, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP US
Thesis: Alluvial Fund's largest holding is Net Lease Office Properties, which is effectively liquidating its assets and significantly reducing debt, positioning itself for potential shareholder distributions despite challenges in the office market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP US
Thesis: Alluvial Fund's largest holding is Net Lease Office Properties, which is effectively liquidating its assets and significantly reducing debt, positioning itself for potential shareholder distributions despite challenges in the office market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
AkhenOsiris
AI is working
tweet
AI is working
US JOLTS JOB OPENINGS ACTUAL 7.6M (FORECAST 8M, PREVIOUS 8.098M) - *Walter Bloombergtweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Senator James Lankford has introduced a bill to prohibit discrimination based on political affiliation in granting disaster aid.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/xneIKmllXI
tweet
RT @QuiverCongress: Senator James Lankford has introduced a bill to prohibit discrimination based on political affiliation in granting disaster aid.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/xneIKmllXI
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Greystone Capital Management on Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) $IVFH US
Thesis: Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is poised for sustained profitability and growth in specialty food distribution following strategic asset divestitures, cost reductions, and new retail partnerships, culminating in ambitious revenue and EBITDA margin goals.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Greystone Capital Management on Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) $IVFH US
Thesis: Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is poised for sustained profitability and growth in specialty food distribution following strategic asset divestitures, cost reductions, and new retail partnerships, culminating in ambitious revenue and EBITDA margin goals.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Lauren Boebert has proposed a bill that would classify fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/ugEclNyp31
tweet
RT @QuiverCongress: Lauren Boebert has proposed a bill that would classify fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/ugEclNyp31
tweet