⁠Startup Archive
RT @bwinterrose: it’s easy to look at a company like Airbnb and say “ofc they were successful”

but so few people are willing to do this work to make these things happen

watch and learn

Brian Chesky explains how Airbnb solved the chicken-and-egg problem

“Marketplaces are incredibly defensible at scale, and maybe it’s because they’re incredibly hard to start. And the problem is simple - they call it the chicken and egg problem.”

As Brian explains, it was tough to bootstrap Airbnb in the beginning because travelers couldn’t book homes if there was no inventory, and homeowners didn’t want to list their homes unless people were going to book them.

“We didn’t know what to do for a while .We tried a lot of different things. And I can tell you what worked. Summer of 2008, the press announces that Barack Obama is moving from a 20,000 seat basketball arena to an 80,000 seat football stadium. And we said, that’s our shot. You have 60,000 people that don’t have housing, surely at least a few of them are going to need a place to stay… And so we literally started with local people in Denver. Then we started emailing bloggers. We got the bloggers. Then the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News covered us. Then the local ABC and NBC and CBS affiliates. And then the Wall Street Journal. Then the New York Times and CNN are in our living room… We did that in a matter of three weeks.”

Brian continues:

“We started these little infernos. You start getting a few users here, a hundred here, fifty there… And we did the same thing with the inauguration. And when you have a hundred people here and there, then you obsessively meet them… Paul Graham, our first investor, said it’s better to have a hundred people love you than a million people kind of like you. And the reason why is it’s really hard to build off of a really wide but shallow base. But with a hundred people, you can find out everything they want… You meet them, you spend a ton of time with them, and once they fall in love with your product, they’ll tell every one of their friends. That’s why [Airbnb] took a really long time to start, but it grew much faster later on.”

Video source: @cwclub (2011) - Startup Archive
tweet

⁠Hidden Value Gems
Another UK stock is taken over by a US firm.

Kudos to @ValueSituations for consistently flagging $DWL.L case 👍 https://t.co/r0PHl39fix
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvial Capital on CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. $CBL US

Thesis: CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. is a strategically positioned commercial real estate operator with strong cash flow and manageable debt, poised for recovery and growth following its restructuring post-bankruptcy.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
•5-Year Mean: 42.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
•5-Year Mean: 2.32%

As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B

$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%

$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $10.92B
•2025E: $129.23B
•CAGR: 63.94%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅ (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B

“✅” as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:

2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan

2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)

$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $168.30💵 … ~19.1% CAGR

29x P/E: $162.69💵 … ~17.1% CAGR

28x P/E: $157.08💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

27x P/E: $151.47💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $145.86💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat

$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58💵

Given its volatility, I’d likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action

E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87

If the stock price goes 📉 I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes 📈 I’m in the green

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢[...]

𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠InsideArbitrage
📢 Specialty retailer - Tandy Leather Factory $TLF Announces Completion of HQ Sale and Lease of New Space; Declares a special dividend of $1.50 per share

▪️ The dividend will be payable on February 18, 2025, to stockholders of record on February 3, 2025

▪️ The Company’s Board recently appointed Johan Hedberg as the Company’s new CEO and a member of its Board, effective January 6, 2025

▪️ The Company also announced that current Director Eric Speron will step down from the Company's Board as of January 31, 2025
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Greystone Capital Management on Sylogist $SYZ CN

Thesis: Sylogist’s high recurring revenues, solid growth, and counter-cyclical software demand support strong long-term upside potential

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ZavYn9JoTO
tweet

⁠Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Calculating ROIC Contest (Tutorial):

$META in <90 seconds https://t.co/czbcgp7nr5
tweet

⁠Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi bought Tempus AI call options earlier this month.

$TEM has now risen 64% since we posted this report. https://t.co/ZJiv27nusT
tweet

AkhenOsiris
Long ways off? Means another massive order cycle by Chinese before curbs take hold...supply constraints...post-deepseek a different world for the stock however

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: $NVDA TRUMP OFFICIALS DISCUSS TIGHTENING CURBS ON NVIDIA CHINA SALES. - FinancialJuice
tweet