⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $TSM US

Thesis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is a dominant market leader in the semiconductor industry with significant revenue growth, strong AI demand, and an attractive valuation, solidifying its competitive advantage.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CFO Insider Purchase

The CFO of $ALLY has just reported purchasing $750k of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 10%

This is the first insider purchase we have seen at Ally in over 2 years.
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @a16z: Timeless advice from @bhorowitz 👇

Nobody Cares by @bhorowitz https://t.co/Eu0yA9rlfJ - The Founders' Tribune
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi made $170K in the stock market today, per our estimates, on a day when the market fell 1.4%.

This is approximately equal to her yearly salary. https://t.co/CUGAWWCTij
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Any stocks you bought during yesterday’s sell-off (baby thrown out with the babywater) ? 🤔
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
What are your thoughts? 🤔👇

Is DeepSeek a game changer for US tech?

#DeepSeek #Stocks #NASDAQ #AI
- No
- Yes - lower capex (good)
- Don't know
- Yes- lower margins/growth
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Kuaishou $KUAISHOU HK

Thesis: Kuaishou is a highly engaged Chinese short-video platform with a significant user base and improving profitability, making it materially undervalued.

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/EoYZwI1byv
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⁠Startup Archive
Alex Schultz explains how Facebook resurrects churned users

Alex is asked by a founder in the audience how Facebook resurrects churned users, to which he responds:

“I think there’s a big question about why people leave. Generally folks over-index on the idea that people don’t like the product and leave. Usually what happens though is they don’t actually get to the point where they see the value in the product.”

As Alex explains, most Facebook users churn because they didn’t find their friends. So their resurrection strategy is all about getting them to that magic moment of finding their friends.

“The best thing we can do is have their friends send friend requests so we can notify them, they come back, see more and more friends, and get a a fuller newsfeed and have a great experience…. That’s really the main reason people don’t ramp up on Facebook. And realistically, most of the leaving Facebook is not leaving, it’s not ramping up. And so what we do is optimize on getting them to the magic moment when they’re on the site. If they’re not on the site, get someone else to send them a friend request. Notify them of that. When they come back, get them more friends. It’s very focused and we’ve stayed that way for 8 years, and it’s really worked.”

Video source: @khoslaventures (2015)
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Beacon’s $BECN Board has implemented a stockholder rights agreement in response to QXO’s $QXO buyout offer -
✴️On February 7, 2025, each shareholder will receive one preferred share purchase right per Beacon share they own.
✴️These rights are initially inactive but become active if someone acquires 15% or more of Beacon’s stock without approval.
✴️If triggered, shareholders can buy more Beacon shares at a 50% discount. If Beacon is later sold in a merger to an unapproved buyer, shareholders can purchase the acquiring company’s stock at a 50% discount.
✴️The plan expires on January 26, 2026, or earlier if redeemed, exchanged, or a Board-approved merger occurs.

QXO $QXO Launches Hostile Tender Offer to Acquire Beacon Roofing $BECN for $11 Billion in Cash -
✴️QXO will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Beacon for $124.25 per share, representing a 4.92% premium from the stock’s last close.
✴️QXO plans to complete the acquisition promptly after the tender offer expires in 20 business days, on February 24, 2025.

https://t.co/HXmmy0WylJ - InsideArbitrage
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
•5-Year Mean: 42.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
•5-Year Mean: 2.32%

As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B

$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%

$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $10.92B
•2025E: $129.23B
•CAGR: 63.94%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅ (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B

“✅” as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:

2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan

2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)

$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $168.30💵 … ~19.1% CAGR

29x P/E: $162.69💵 … ~17.1% CAGR

28x P/E: $157.08💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

27x P/E: $151.47💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $145.86💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat

$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58💵

Given its volatility, I’d likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action

E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87

If the stock price goes 📉 I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes 📈 I’m in the green

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬�[...]

�𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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