⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $FREY stock ended today up 12%, following last night's insider trade https://t.co/EwwJzCk4ZO"

🚨BREAKING: New CFO Insider Purchase

The interim CFO of $FREY has reported the purchase of ~$900K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 421%.

The stock had fallen over 82% since its IPO in 2021. "- Insider Radar
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Here's how much Reuters, $TRI, has received in government award obligations, by year:

2024 (YTD): $27M
2023: $90M
2022: $114M
2021: $100M
2020: $142M
2019: $100M
2018: $86M
2017: $107M
2016: $96M
2015: $92M
2014: $81M
2013: $89M
2012: $94M
2011: $94M
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Biden just endorsed a ban on congressional stock trading.

In other news:

Nancy Pelosi has now made $44M in the stock market so far this year, per our estimates. https://t.co/x9bYU4MnXt
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $XPRO has reported the purchase of ~$490K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 16%.

One of the company's directors also just reported the purchase of ~$200k of stock.
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Amazing that one of the best CEOs in the UK - Kevin Roundtree at #GAW - has no public photo!

The stock is up over 43x since he became the CEO in 2015, having started as assistant group accountant in 1998.

Just curious if there are other CEOs like that, with no photos? https://t.co/6kkJyeJjCJ
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Granular Capital on Alten $ATE FP

Thesis: Alten’s dominance in outsourced R&D, backed by skilled engineers and strong secular trends, offers compelling upside despite its undervalued price.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/i1J3dbcObE
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⁠Capital Employed
What's been your best performing stock this year? 🚀
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⁠Startup Archive
Jeff Bezos explains why he didn’t take additional equity building Amazon

Jeff is asked why he only paid himself $80,000 per year and never took additional equity during his tenure as CEO of Amazon. He responds:

“I asked the comp committee of the board not to give me any comp. My view was I was a founder. I already owned a significant amount of the company, and I just didn’t feel good about taking more. I felt I had plenty of incentive. I owned more than 10% of the company, and earlier — before it was diluted by various things — more than 20% of the company. I just felt how could I possibly need more incentive?”

Jeff continues:

“Most founders own big chunks of the company. They’re more like owner-operators. The way they increase their wealth is not by getting more equity. They just want to make the equity they have more valuable. And so I just would have felt icky about it. And I’m actually very proud of that decision.”

Jeff is especially proud of how much wealth he’s created for other people:

“Somebody needs to make a list where they rank people by how much wealth they’ve created for other people — instead of the Forbes list where it ranks you by your own wealth. Amazon’s market cap is $2.3 trillion today. I own about $200 billion-ish of it. So if you take $2.3 trillion and subtract out the piece I kept for myself, then I’ve created something like $2.1 trillion of wealth for other people. That should put me pretty high on some kind of list. And that’s a better list — how much wealth have you created for other people?”

Video source: @nytimesevents (2024)
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Updated CAGR Est after $GOOG +14% rally📈

2024E: $7.98 (37.5% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.95 (12.2% YoY)
2026E: $10.19 (13.9% YoY)
2027E: $11.78 (15.5% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

24x P/E: $282.72💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

23x P/E: $270.94💵 … ~11.4% CAGR

22x P/E: $259.16💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

21x P/E: $247.38💵 … ~8.2% CAGR

20x P/E: $235.60💵 … ~6.5% CAGR

$GOOG still has attractive return potential IF it can maintain a >23x multiple (below its 5-year & 10-year average & not unreasonable considering recent growth catalysts)"

A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.07x
•10-Year Mean: 23.62x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.36%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.04% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.04%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.98 (37.5% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.95 (12.2% YoY)
2026E: $10.16 (13.5% YoY)
2027E: $11.78 (15.9% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $270.94💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

22x P/E: $259.16💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $247.38💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

20x P/E: $235.60💵 … ~11.5% CAGR

19x P/E: $223.82💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >22x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given

In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand

Today at $173💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
[...]

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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