⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $UAMY has reported the purchase of ~$300K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 15%.

This is the first insider buy we have ever seen him report. A director at the company also reported a $100K purchase today.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Kingfisher $KGF LN

Thesis: Kingfisher’s strong cash flow generation and undervaluation, combined with disciplined capital returns, offer attractive upside post-pandemic normalization

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Wy5PBpub1T
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Has anyone done / seen store economics for $WOSG.L? Especially a breakdown of margins into product margins (markups) and store costs (salaries, rent etc).

And also how much it costs to open the store, refurbish it, pay leases etc.

So ROI on one store (roughly)?
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
If you had to buy one luxury goods stock for the next 3 years, what would it be ?

Unfortunately X allows to offer only 4 options
- LVMH
- Kering
- WOSG
- Hermes
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⁠Startup Archive
Elon Musk on how to get people to believe in your startup

“If you think about a company, a company is a group of people that are organized to create a product or service. So in order to create such a thing, you have to convince others to join you in your effort.”

But, as Elon explains, this is hard in the beginning:

“In the beginning, there will be few people who believe in you or what you’re doing. But then over time — as you make progress — the evidence will build and more and more people will believe in what you’re doing.”

So, Elon argues, the first thing you should do when starting a company is create a good demo or mock-up so that people can really envision what it’s about.

“Try to get to that point as soon as possible, and then iterate to make it as real as possible, as fast as possible.”

A good example of this is the Tesla Roadster. Tesla debuted the concept vehicle in 2006 with a famous photograph of co-founder J. B. Straubel driving California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Tesla was a long way from mass-producing the Roadster at any level of affordability, but the demo made their vision more real and helped Tesla secure additional funding. This funding bought the company more time and resources to deliver its first 500 vehicles between February 2008 and June 2009.

Video source: @ComputerHistory (2013)
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.01x
•5-Year Mean: 17.84x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.50%
•5-Year Mean: 5.85%

As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~1% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B

$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%

$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B

By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at a 9.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (9.01%) required growth rate:

2025E: $9.50 (9.9% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.69 (12.5% YoY)
2027E: $11.74 (9.8% YoY)

$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.74 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

22x P/E: $258.28💵 … ~16.2% CAGR

20x P/E: $234.80💵 … ~12.4% CAGR

18x P/E: $211.32💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

16x P/E: $187.84💵 … ~4.1% CAGR

As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20x earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range

Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent

So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)

However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty

Today at $171💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued

I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~12% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
SouthernSun on Api Group $APG US

Thesis: APi Group’s focus on high-margin recurring services, strategic M&A opportunities, and proven management make it a compelling play in fire and life safety markets

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PxyhkHuHwa
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⁠Investing visuals
Is $TSLA worth the premium?

With its recent all-time high, $TSLA trades at 77x price/gross profit, far above its 4-year average of 43x.

The impact of Robotaxis, Optimus and FSD on revenue remains to be seen. Do you believe $TSLA will deliver? https://t.co/KMP9ajaajD
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: One month ago, we reported on a new insider purchase by the CEO of $EXAS.

The stock has been climbing slowly but steadily since then, and is now up 28% since his purchase. https://t.co/d2NZwMGAKn

🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $EXAS just reported the purchase of ~$1M of the company's stock.

This is the first insider purchase we have EVER seen at Exact Sciences. https://t.co/cuT7meWNvY - Insider Radar
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