⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $TREE skyrocketed after these trades were reported, with a 7% spike in the last 30min before market close https://t.co/rPjTLVR7JO

🚨BREAKING: 2 Insider Purchases at $TREE

- $500K purchase by CEO
- $145K purchase by CTO

These are the first insider purchases they have reported in over a year. - Insider Radar
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⁠App Economy Insights
$ORCL Oracle Q2 FY25 (November quarter).

• RPO +50% Y/Y fx neutral to $97B.

CEO Safra Catz:

"Record level AI demand drove Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue up 52% in Q2, a much higher growth rate than any of our hyperscale cloud infrastructure competitors."

• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $14.1B ($20M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.47 ($0.01 miss).
• Dividend $0.40/share (unchanged).

Cloud revenue +24% Y/Y to $5.9B:
• Application (SaaS) +10% Y/Y to $3.5B.
• Infrastructure (IaaS) +52% Y/Y to $2.4B.
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: Massive New Insider Purchase

A director at $RVMD has just reported buying $60M of the company's stock. This purchase was made through a venture fund where he is the managing partner.

This is the first insider purchase he has made in over a year.
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Interesting 👇🏼

“For decades, Nvidia employees have been sending notes known as T5Ts, or Top-5 Things—things they’re working on, things they’re thinking about, things they’re noticing in their corners of the business.”

“Every morning, the man who built one of the world’s most valuable companies scrolls through his inbox and looks at 100 of the most important emails that he’ll see all day. And on Sunday nights, he pours himself a glass of his favorite Scotch and reads even more of them.”

$NVDA

via @WSJ
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
An important milestone! More patience is needed though before we see the actual impact on financials
#GAW $GAW.L https://t.co/kacxq9c4Ew
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Unilever $ULVR LN

Thesis: Unilever’s transformation under new leadership positions it for a profit cycle driven by growth and strategic focus

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/L3SLZhQ3Lb
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Crossroads Capital on Vistry $VTY LN

Thesis: Vistry’s capital-light model and partnerships-driven approach position it as the leader in UK affordable housing with a strong valuation upside.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Z6tLU0Qw07
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⁠Startup Archive
Paul Graham on how to get startup ideas

“The way to get startup ideas is not to try to think of startup ideas… The way to come up with good startup ideas is to take a step back. Instead of trying to make a conscious effort to think of startup ideas, turn your brain into the type that has startup ideas unconsciously.”

Yahoo, Google, Facebook, and Apple all got started this way. None of them were supposed to be companies at first—they were all just side projects.

PG gives three tips for having startup ideas unconsciously:

1. Learn a lot about things that matter
2. Work on problems that interest you
3. With people you like and respect (this is incidentally how you get cofounders at the same time as the idea)

PG explains:

“My life is full of case after case where I worked on things just because I was interested and they turned out to be useful later in some worldly way. Y Combinator itself is something I only did because it seemed interesting… If you’re interested in genuinely interesting problems, gratifying your interest energetically is the best way to prepare yourself for a startup. And, for that matter, probably the best way to live.”

To find interesting problems, PG recommends getting yourself to the leading edge of some technology and learning “powerful things.”

“The component of entrepreneurship that really matters is domain expertise. Larry Page is Larry Page because he was an expert on search. And the way he became an expert on search was because he was genuinely interested in it, not because of some ulterior motive. At its best, starting a startup is merely an ulterior motive for curiosity, and you’ll do it best if you introduce the ulterior motive at the end of the process.”

He concludes:

“So here is the ultimate advice for young, would-be startup founders reduced to two words: just learn.”

Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @mikemcg0: Perhaps my favorite startup quote of all time:

"If you’re interested in genuinely interesting problems, gratifying your interest energetically is the best way to prepare yourself for a startup. And, for that matter, probably the best way to live."

- Paul Graham

Paul Graham on how to get startup ideas

“The way to get startup ideas is not to try to think of startup ideas… The way to come up with good startup ideas is to take a step back. Instead of trying to make a conscious effort to think of startup ideas, turn your brain into the type that has startup ideas unconsciously.”

Yahoo, Google, Facebook, and Apple all got started this way. None of them were supposed to be companies at first—they were all just side projects.

PG gives three tips for having startup ideas unconsciously:

1. Learn a lot about things that matter
2. Work on problems that interest you
3. With people you like and respect (this is incidentally how you get cofounders at the same time as the idea)

PG explains:

“My life is full of case after case where I worked on things just because I was interested and they turned out to be useful later in some worldly way. Y Combinator itself is something I only did because it seemed interesting… If you’re interested in genuinely interesting problems, gratifying your interest energetically is the best way to prepare yourself for a startup. And, for that matter, probably the best way to live.”

To find interesting problems, PG recommends getting yourself to the leading edge of some technology and learning “powerful things.”

“The component of entrepreneurship that really matters is domain expertise. Larry Page is Larry Page because he was an expert on search. And the way he became an expert on search was because he was genuinely interested in it, not because of some ulterior motive. At its best, starting a startup is merely an ulterior motive for curiosity, and you’ll do it best if you introduce the ulterior motive at the end of the process.”

He concludes:

“So here is the ultimate advice for young, would-be startup founders reduced to two words: just learn.”

Video source: @ycombinator (2014) - Startup Archive
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$GOOG 👇🏽 👌🏽

A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.07x
•10-Year Mean: 23.62x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.36%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.04% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.04%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.98 (37.5% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.95 (12.2% YoY)
2026E: $10.16 (13.5% YoY)
2027E: $11.78 (15.9% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $270.94💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

22x P/E: $259.16💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $247.38💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

20x P/E: $235.60💵 … ~11.5% CAGR

19x P/E: $223.82💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >22x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given

In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand

Today at $173💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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