⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New Director Insider Purchase

A director of $PETS has reported the purchase of ~$320K of the company's stock.

This is the first insider purchase she has ever reported, and increases her ownership stake by 109%.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Is $AMZN still attractive⁉️

Updated CAGR Estimates📝*

19x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~18.1% CAGR

18x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.62💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.76💵 … ~8.7% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.90💵 … ~5.4% CAGR

*Assuming 2026E OCF $16.86

#stocks

A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 15.00x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.72%
•10-Year Mean: 2.87%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in operating cash flow & ~5% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $88.05B
•Long-Term Debt: $62.39B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 44x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 14.5%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 22.6%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.68B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 8.0%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in OCF & ~5% LESS in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2026:

2024E: $11.08 (37% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $14.06 (27% YoY)
2026E: $16.86 (20% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.86 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~19.88% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.62💵 … ~16.64% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.76💵 … ~13.30% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.90💵 … ~9.85% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded near since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $43.62B (19% YoY)
2025E: $65.73B (50% YoY)
2026E: $91.58B (39% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $211💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Jared Moskowitz just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.

He bought stock in Lockheed Martin.

Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/gLMnxPTplr
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @rohanpaul_ai: “Twitter solves no one’s problem at all. It was something we wanted to use. It was something we wanted to see in the world. It was something we wanted to use on a daily basis, and that’s all that drove us. That’s what got us up every single morning, and that’s what made it meaningful.”

-- Jack Dorsey on why building something for yourself can be better than trying to solve a problem

Jack Dorsey on why building something for yourself can be better than trying to solve a problem

When a 29 year old Jack Dorsey joined the podcasting startup Odeo, he soon learned that no one there really cared about podcasting either:

“That was one of Odeo’s biggest failures. We were not building tools for us. We were building tools for other people.”

As Odeo struggled, the team began to look for new ideas, and Jack presented his idea for Twitter. Somewhat counterintuitively, the product would not solve a specific problem:

“Twitter solves no one’s problem at all. It was something we wanted to use. It was something we wanted to see in the world. It was something we wanted to use on a daily basis, and that’s all that drove us. That’s what got us up every single morning, and that’s what made it meaningful.”

It turns out there were more people like Jack and the Odeo team who wanted to use it to.

“I think that is one of the biggest lessons I learned—Twitter did not start as a company. Twitter started as a product within another company that was failing. And to me, this really emphasized the fact that entrepreneurship is not necessarily starting a new company. It’s actually just taking significant risk to build what you want to see in the world.”

Video source: @Cal_Engineer (2013) - Startup Archive
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Josh Gottheimer has bought up to $90K of Tesla stock, $TSLA.

He started buying in a week after the election: https://t.co/MSKpno9UqL
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Crossroads Capital on Nintendo $7974 JP

Thesis: Nintendo’s expansion into movies, theme parks, and its upcoming Switch 2 launch sets the stage for unparalleled growth and valuation upside

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/4xrxbhhpcR
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Senator Bernie Sanders has said:

"The US needs a strong military, but we do not need a defense system that is designed to make huge profits for a handful of giant defense contractors."

Sanders is one of the few senators who we have not seen taking money from corporate PACs. https://t.co/SQPbvznr5k
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @foundertribune: "The Challenge of the Future" by Peter Thiel https://t.co/NmtuszPzmF
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