⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Merion Road on Curbline Properties $CURB US

Thesis: Curbline Properties combines a strong leasing portfolio and undervaluation, positioning it for significant growth in suburban real estate

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Fa2XaHyC3k
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AkhenOsiris
$META $GOOGL $PINS $RDDT

Although TikTok plans to appeal the decision, the possibility of a ban creates a significant engagement and monetization opportunity across the largest social platforms in the U.S., Citi tells investors in a research note. They highlight Meta’s Instagram and Facebook, Google’s YouTube, Snap, Pinterest and Reddit as potential beneficiaries. Engagement benefits are likely to be somewhat more gradual, but advertisers are likely to accelerate their spend off of TikTok as they invest in other platforms, says Citi. Meta remains its top pick across the internet sector.
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

As we head into the stretch drive of holiday shopping, most recent data pts:

- Yipit saying AMZN NA Retail tracking 4ppts above street

- Facteus said Amazon saw the strongest growth among major retailers on Black Friday specifically, at 6% yoy (compared to Walmart 3% yoy, while Best Buy and Target saw yoy declines). Amazon and Walmart continued to have the strongest showing through Cyber Monday.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Mobius CP on 360 One $360ONE IN

Thesis: 360 One leverages India’s wealth boom with a customer-focused model and robust growth opportunities

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/97XIctuVHB
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Broyhill AM on Rentokil Initial $RTO LN

Thesis: Rentokil’s US expansion and discounted valuation offer significant growth potential in a fragmented market

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/8BpSr5nzAq
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⁠Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on a common red flag he sees in startup pitches

“There’s a pattern recognition where if I see a presentation that says, ‘We have this great idea and we’re going to make money in one of these 5 ways: A, B, C, D, or E.’… That’s always sort of alarming and not very inspiring.”

Thiel continues:

“It’s always much better if people say we’re just going to make money doing A. It suggests you’ve actually thought it through and you think it’s going to actually work. Whereas when you list A through E, that sounds like a superset and you have more things going on, but the reality is that you often haven’t really thought through them very carefully.”

Thiel generalizes this insight:

“I think whenever people come up with a list of options or choices like this, that’s often a version of being lazy and not thinking really hard about what actually might work.”

Video source: @Wharton (2014)
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $MSCI has reported the purchase of ~$1.8M of the company's stock.

This is his second insider purchase of the year. The stock is up 40% since his first purchase in April. https://t.co/lnacGMpRxE
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New Director Insider Purchase

A director of $PETS has reported the purchase of ~$320K of the company's stock.

This is the first insider purchase she has ever reported, and increases her ownership stake by 109%.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Is $AMZN still attractive⁉️

Updated CAGR Estimates📝*

19x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~18.1% CAGR

18x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.62💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.76💵 … ~8.7% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.90💵 … ~5.4% CAGR

*Assuming 2026E OCF $16.86

#stocks

A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 15.00x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.72%
•10-Year Mean: 2.87%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in operating cash flow & ~5% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $88.05B
•Long-Term Debt: $62.39B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 44x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 14.5%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 22.6%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.68B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 8.0%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in OCF & ~5% LESS in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2026:

2024E: $11.08 (37% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $14.06 (27% YoY)
2026E: $16.86 (20% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.86 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~19.88% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.62💵 … ~16.64% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.76💵 … ~13.30% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.90💵 … ~9.85% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded near since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $43.62B (19% YoY)
2025E: $65.73B (50% YoY)
2026E: $91.58B (39% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $211💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Jared Moskowitz just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.

He bought stock in Lockheed Martin.

Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/gLMnxPTplr
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