⁠Startup Archive
RT @bram: I'm often asked what's one thing we got wrong when we led @Shopify's Series C. The answer is easy: TAM.

We tried to fit the TAM as the number of stores that needed an online cart solution. Of course, @tobi @harleyf and the team weren't building The Online Cart Company, they built The Entrepreneurship Company. Making commerce better for everyone is a TAM that never stops growing.

@bgurley is one of the best and its a gift that he shares his experiences so openly. Part of mastering the craft of VC is understanding that the outlier companies will scale beyond anything you could have imagined at the time of the investment 🛍️🚀.

Legendary VC Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors

“I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.”

Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market.

Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”:

“There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.”

To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time.

But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million.

As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it:

“Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”

Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate.

Video source: @tferriss (2023) - Startup Archive
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AkhenOsiris
Rates high and SNOW results taking SaaS to new heights 😱
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AkhenOsiris
Gensler done...Lina, please exit under your own graces
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AkhenOsiris
Bombed out, dumpster diving, etc been a fintwit favorite in anticipation of catching the snapback due to positioning, short covering, etc

SNOW/SaaS having its moment.

Other current bombed out candidates (at least 20% drawdown):

- Solar sector
- UBER
- China internet (yet again)
- OKTA
- ASML
- U

Only down 10%, but keeping an eye on India... don't think 20% drawdown will happen, but sentiment getting quite negative (FII outflows, China stimulus drawing flows, Trump uncertainty, high valuation)
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: *ALIBABA ANNOUNCES ESTABLISHMENT OF ALIBABA E-COMMERCE BUSINESS

this is actually what i thought they were virtually doing for years

but ok here we are
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⁠Capital Employed
This is a quality deep dive on Seaport Entertainment $SEG

We just published a 35 page Special Report on Seaport Entertainment ($SEG), a company that owns properties in the heart of New York overlooking the Brooklyn Bridge. Read it at Hidden Gems Investing (link in my profile).

Seaport is a recent spinoff from Howard Hughes ($HHH) and the economics of these properties is hard to come by. We spoke with 22 industry sources to uncover this 'hidden gem' and hope you enjoy the report! Read it at the new Hidden Gems Investing page (link in my profile). - Chris Waller
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
I wish we had more companies like that in 🇬🇧

$GAW.L 🚀 https://t.co/0ot5MGSYl3
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Wasatch GI on MonotaRO $3064 JP

Thesis: MonotaRO’s strong growth trajectory, enhanced by superior service and strategic partnerships, positions it well for market share expansion in Japan’s MRO sector

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UYmQRPCG2g
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on Pernod Ricard $RI FP

Thesis: Pernod Ricard’s exposure to premium spirits and emerging markets growth, combined with its attractive valuation, offers a strong long-term investment opportunity.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/uD3Xeep8gg
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⁠Capital Employed
Great post about the investing style of Tony Deden by @Delta9Echo

https://t.co/1lwQFOxlEh?
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⁠iinvested
3Q'24 Baron Discovery Fund on $TWFG, $NARI

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/ccjFhSQnS3 https://t.co/TeZHGREWGt
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