Ahmad Jivraj
RT @mrjivraj: cool. As of right now that's only +3% above the current price ($97K).
if you believe $BTC > $100K by year, here is one way you could double your money in a ~month...
Buy $IBIT $55 Calls and sell $IBIT $55.5 calls expiring on Dec 24, 2024 (if you think that's not close enough to year end, you can select the Jan 3, 2025 expiry)
This will cost $25 per contract
You're risking $1 to make $1
meaning..you're getting 1:1 odds and the likelihood is probably much higher than this...
not financial advice of course :)
tweet
RT @mrjivraj: cool. As of right now that's only +3% above the current price ($97K).
if you believe $BTC > $100K by year, here is one way you could double your money in a ~month...
Buy $IBIT $55 Calls and sell $IBIT $55.5 calls expiring on Dec 24, 2024 (if you think that's not close enough to year end, you can select the Jan 3, 2025 expiry)
This will cost $25 per contract
You're risking $1 to make $1
meaning..you're getting 1:1 odds and the likelihood is probably much higher than this...
not financial advice of course :)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
BIT Capital on Reddit $RDDT US
Thesis: Reddit’s explosive user growth, underutilized ad potential, and strong earnings beat post-IPO signal a significant upside opportunity for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1POyG8lBA6
tweet
BIT Capital on Reddit $RDDT US
Thesis: Reddit’s explosive user growth, underutilized ad potential, and strong earnings beat post-IPO signal a significant upside opportunity for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1POyG8lBA6
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
NVDIA CEO Jensen Huang explains why your startup doesn't need a traditional business plan
“I didn’t know how to write a business plan… Making a financial forecast that nobody knows is going to be right or wrong turns out to not be that important.”
Jensen continues:
“I think that the art of writing a business plan ought to be much, much shorter. It should force you to concisely answer: What is the problem you’re trying to solve? What is the unmet need you believe will emerge? And what is it that you’re going to do that is sufficiently hard that when everybody else finds out it’s a good idea, they’re not going to swarm it and make you obsolete? It has to be sufficiently hard to do.”
Marc Andreessen echoes similar points in a separate interview:
“The process of planning is very valuable for forcing you to think hard about what you’re doing, but the actual plan that results from it is probably useless. In particular, now that we’re VCs, we’re evaluating pitches and when people come in, we want to hear their plan and we want to hear it in some detail because we want to see that they can think about the entire thing end-to-end. And if their initial plan doesn’t make sense, then obviously there’s an issue because they’re not quite capable of fully thinking this through. But when you get somebody who comes in and they present you the perfect plan and everything is fully integrated and makes sense, all you know from that is that they can come up with a good plan—which is good! But the odds that will be the plan they succeed on is still very small.”
Video source: @AcquiredFM (2023)
tweet
NVDIA CEO Jensen Huang explains why your startup doesn't need a traditional business plan
“I didn’t know how to write a business plan… Making a financial forecast that nobody knows is going to be right or wrong turns out to not be that important.”
Jensen continues:
“I think that the art of writing a business plan ought to be much, much shorter. It should force you to concisely answer: What is the problem you’re trying to solve? What is the unmet need you believe will emerge? And what is it that you’re going to do that is sufficiently hard that when everybody else finds out it’s a good idea, they’re not going to swarm it and make you obsolete? It has to be sufficiently hard to do.”
Marc Andreessen echoes similar points in a separate interview:
“The process of planning is very valuable for forcing you to think hard about what you’re doing, but the actual plan that results from it is probably useless. In particular, now that we’re VCs, we’re evaluating pitches and when people come in, we want to hear their plan and we want to hear it in some detail because we want to see that they can think about the entire thing end-to-end. And if their initial plan doesn’t make sense, then obviously there’s an issue because they’re not quite capable of fully thinking this through. But when you get somebody who comes in and they present you the perfect plan and everything is fully integrated and makes sense, all you know from that is that they can come up with a good plan—which is good! But the odds that will be the plan they succeed on is still very small.”
Video source: @AcquiredFM (2023)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration for the position of Attorney General. https://t.co/fuRovhJrNU
tweet
BREAKING: Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration for the position of Attorney General. https://t.co/fuRovhJrNU
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Tina Smith just disclosed a purchase of up to $100K of stock in Tactile Systems, $TCMD.
Tactile Systems is a medical device company.
Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
We first saw her buy $TCMD in November of last year.
It has risen 54% since then. https://t.co/zlh2gtO0Xh
tweet
JUST IN: Senator Tina Smith just disclosed a purchase of up to $100K of stock in Tactile Systems, $TCMD.
Tactile Systems is a medical device company.
Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
We first saw her buy $TCMD in November of last year.
It has risen 54% since then. https://t.co/zlh2gtO0Xh
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Semiconductor Valuations & EPS Growth Est📈
Nvidia $NVDA
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2026 EPS: $4.19 (+46.7%)*
•2027 EPS: $5.01 (+19.6%)
•2028 EPS: $5.27 (+5.2%)
Applied Materials $AMAT
•NTM P/E: 17.88x*
•2025 EPS: $9.55 (+10.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.77 (+12.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.94 (+10.9%)
ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.32x*
•2025 EPS: $3.56 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
KLA Corp $KLAC
•NTM P/E: 20.01x*
•2025 EPS: $30.69 (+29.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $33.00 (+7.5%)
•2027 EPS: $37.47 (+13.6%)
Analog Devices $ADI
•NTM P/E: 30.31x*
•2025 EPS: $7.48 (+17.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $9.21 (+23.2%)
•2027 EPS: $11.64 (+26.3%)
Texas Instruments $TXN
•NTM P/E: 37.39x*
•2025 EPS: $6.07 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.64 (+25.9%)
•2027 EPS: $9.58 (+25.4%)
Monolithic Power $MPWR
•NTM P/E: 36.45x*
•2025 EPS: $16.78 (+19.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $21.30 (+26.9%)
•2027 EPS: $25.23 (+18.5%)
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $5.13 (+54.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.13 (+39.0%)
•2027 EPS: $9.15 (+28.3%)
Cadence Design Systems $CDNS
•NTM P/E: 43.57x*
•2025 EPS: $6.87 (+15.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.95 (+15.8%)
•2027 EPS: $8.81 (+10.8%)
#stocks #investing
___
**data from tikr
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: Semiconductor Valuations & EPS Growth Est📈
Nvidia $NVDA
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2026 EPS: $4.19 (+46.7%)*
•2027 EPS: $5.01 (+19.6%)
•2028 EPS: $5.27 (+5.2%)
Applied Materials $AMAT
•NTM P/E: 17.88x*
•2025 EPS: $9.55 (+10.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.77 (+12.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.94 (+10.9%)
ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.32x*
•2025 EPS: $3.56 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
KLA Corp $KLAC
•NTM P/E: 20.01x*
•2025 EPS: $30.69 (+29.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $33.00 (+7.5%)
•2027 EPS: $37.47 (+13.6%)
Analog Devices $ADI
•NTM P/E: 30.31x*
•2025 EPS: $7.48 (+17.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $9.21 (+23.2%)
•2027 EPS: $11.64 (+26.3%)
Texas Instruments $TXN
•NTM P/E: 37.39x*
•2025 EPS: $6.07 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.64 (+25.9%)
•2027 EPS: $9.58 (+25.4%)
Monolithic Power $MPWR
•NTM P/E: 36.45x*
•2025 EPS: $16.78 (+19.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $21.30 (+26.9%)
•2027 EPS: $25.23 (+18.5%)
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $5.13 (+54.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.13 (+39.0%)
•2027 EPS: $9.15 (+28.3%)
Cadence Design Systems $CDNS
•NTM P/E: 43.57x*
•2025 EPS: $6.87 (+15.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.95 (+15.8%)
•2027 EPS: $8.81 (+10.8%)
#stocks #investing
___
**data from tikr
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Wasatch GI on Inspire Medical Systems $INSP US
Thesis: Inspire’s growing market opportunity, boosted by rising obesity treatments, positions it well to capitalize on the expanding sleep apnea patient base.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/B886nKxRwr
tweet
Wasatch GI on Inspire Medical Systems $INSP US
Thesis: Inspire’s growing market opportunity, boosted by rising obesity treatments, positions it well to capitalize on the expanding sleep apnea patient base.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/B886nKxRwr
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ONEW has reported the purchase of ~$450k of the company's stock.
He is a frequent inside buyer, but this is the largest purchase we have seen him report in the last 4 years.
tweet
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ONEW has reported the purchase of ~$450k of the company's stock.
He is a frequent inside buyer, but this is the largest purchase we have seen him report in the last 4 years.
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @bram: I'm often asked what's one thing we got wrong when we led @Shopify's Series C. The answer is easy: TAM.
We tried to fit the TAM as the number of stores that needed an online cart solution. Of course, @tobi @harleyf and the team weren't building The Online Cart Company, they built The Entrepreneurship Company. Making commerce better for everyone is a TAM that never stops growing.
@bgurley is one of the best and its a gift that he shares his experiences so openly. Part of mastering the craft of VC is understanding that the outlier companies will scale beyond anything you could have imagined at the time of the investment 🛍️🚀.
tweet
RT @bram: I'm often asked what's one thing we got wrong when we led @Shopify's Series C. The answer is easy: TAM.
We tried to fit the TAM as the number of stores that needed an online cart solution. Of course, @tobi @harleyf and the team weren't building The Online Cart Company, they built The Entrepreneurship Company. Making commerce better for everyone is a TAM that never stops growing.
@bgurley is one of the best and its a gift that he shares his experiences so openly. Part of mastering the craft of VC is understanding that the outlier companies will scale beyond anything you could have imagined at the time of the investment 🛍️🚀.
Legendary VC Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors
“I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.”
Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market.
Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”:
“There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.”
To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time.
But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million.
As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it:
“Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”
Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate.
Video source: @tferriss (2023) tweet
AkhenOsiris
Bombed out, dumpster diving, etc been a fintwit favorite in anticipation of catching the snapback due to positioning, short covering, etc
SNOW/SaaS having its moment.
Other current bombed out candidates (at least 20% drawdown):
- Solar sector
- UBER
- China internet (yet again)
- OKTA
- ASML
- U
Only down 10%, but keeping an eye on India... don't think 20% drawdown will happen, but sentiment getting quite negative (FII outflows, China stimulus drawing flows, Trump uncertainty, high valuation)
tweet
Bombed out, dumpster diving, etc been a fintwit favorite in anticipation of catching the snapback due to positioning, short covering, etc
SNOW/SaaS having its moment.
Other current bombed out candidates (at least 20% drawdown):
- Solar sector
- UBER
- China internet (yet again)
- OKTA
- ASML
- U
Only down 10%, but keeping an eye on India... don't think 20% drawdown will happen, but sentiment getting quite negative (FII outflows, China stimulus drawing flows, Trump uncertainty, high valuation)
tweet