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RT @alixpasquet: Good lesson for public investors too
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RT @alixpasquet: Good lesson for public investors too
Legendary VC Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors
“I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.”
Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market.
Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”:
“There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.”
To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time.
But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million.
As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it:
“Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”
Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate.
Video source: @tferriss (2023) tweet
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Startup Archive
RT @ArthurMacwaters: 1) this is incredibly valuable type of user feedback
2) these users are hard to get a hold of (because they’re harder to spot and leave less info) but if you can, they tell you absolute gems 💎
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RT @ArthurMacwaters: 1) this is incredibly valuable type of user feedback
2) these users are hard to get a hold of (because they’re harder to spot and leave less info) but if you can, they tell you absolute gems 💎
Twitch founder Emmett Shear on the best users to talk to for finding product/market fit
Many startup founders will only talk to the most active users of their product.
But as Emmett explains, one of the most valuable things he learned early on at Twitch was that the people who were using competitor products had the best insights:
“The people who have chosen to not use your product—especially if they deliberately looked at, decided it sucked, and went somewhere else—are some of the best people to talk to because they know what’s wrong with it.”
Video source: @StanfordOnline (2017) tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$ASML currently trading at the lower end of its historical valuation range, despite maintaining robust growth prospects & a wide moat 💸
#stocks #investing https://t.co/NPRouhc09g
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$ASML currently trading at the lower end of its historical valuation range, despite maintaining robust growth prospects & a wide moat 💸
#stocks #investing https://t.co/NPRouhc09g
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Miller Value on Quad Graphics $QUAD US
Thesis: Quad Graphics’ undervaluation and strategic transformation into a marketing experience company present significant upside potential, supported by strong cash flow and asset monetization.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/jyGupH35Kc
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Miller Value on Quad Graphics $QUAD US
Thesis: Quad Graphics’ undervaluation and strategic transformation into a marketing experience company present significant upside potential, supported by strong cash flow and asset monetization.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/jyGupH35Kc
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz has bought stock in a company called Viasat, $VSAT.
Viasat produces military communications equipment.
Schulz sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction.
We'll be keeping an eye on $VSAT. https://t.co/RcjqWovV0k
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JUST IN: Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz has bought stock in a company called Viasat, $VSAT.
Viasat produces military communications equipment.
Schulz sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction.
We'll be keeping an eye on $VSAT. https://t.co/RcjqWovV0k
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Cynthia Lummis just called for the United States to sell its gold and buy #Bitcoin.
Lummis bought up to $100K of $BTC in 2021, but put her portfolio into a blind trust in 2022.
She has likely sacrificed hundreds of thousands of dollars of profit. https://t.co/Iw6B5eY7zF
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BREAKING: Senator Cynthia Lummis just called for the United States to sell its gold and buy #Bitcoin.
Lummis bought up to $100K of $BTC in 2021, but put her portfolio into a blind trust in 2022.
She has likely sacrificed hundreds of thousands of dollars of profit. https://t.co/Iw6B5eY7zF
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $SMLR is up 40% over the last 5 days.
It dipped in the first week following the insider purchase, but with the recent gains is now up 23% since the director's buy. https://t.co/MkBH5NcQQf
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RT @InsiderRadar: $SMLR is up 40% over the last 5 days.
It dipped in the first week following the insider purchase, but with the recent gains is now up 23% since the director's buy. https://t.co/MkBH5NcQQf
🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $SMLR has reported the purchase of ~$1.9M of the company's stock.
The stock rose over 35% between when the trade was made (on 11/7) and when it was reported.
This is only the first insider purchase at the company in over a year. tweet
Ahmad Jivraj
RT @mrjivraj: cool. As of right now that's only +3% above the current price ($97K).
if you believe $BTC > $100K by year, here is one way you could double your money in a ~month...
Buy $IBIT $55 Calls and sell $IBIT $55.5 calls expiring on Dec 24, 2024 (if you think that's not close enough to year end, you can select the Jan 3, 2025 expiry)
This will cost $25 per contract
You're risking $1 to make $1
meaning..you're getting 1:1 odds and the likelihood is probably much higher than this...
not financial advice of course :)
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RT @mrjivraj: cool. As of right now that's only +3% above the current price ($97K).
if you believe $BTC > $100K by year, here is one way you could double your money in a ~month...
Buy $IBIT $55 Calls and sell $IBIT $55.5 calls expiring on Dec 24, 2024 (if you think that's not close enough to year end, you can select the Jan 3, 2025 expiry)
This will cost $25 per contract
You're risking $1 to make $1
meaning..you're getting 1:1 odds and the likelihood is probably much higher than this...
not financial advice of course :)
tweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
BIT Capital on Reddit $RDDT US
Thesis: Reddit’s explosive user growth, underutilized ad potential, and strong earnings beat post-IPO signal a significant upside opportunity for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1POyG8lBA6
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BIT Capital on Reddit $RDDT US
Thesis: Reddit’s explosive user growth, underutilized ad potential, and strong earnings beat post-IPO signal a significant upside opportunity for investors
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/1POyG8lBA6
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Startup Archive
NVDIA CEO Jensen Huang explains why your startup doesn't need a traditional business plan
“I didn’t know how to write a business plan… Making a financial forecast that nobody knows is going to be right or wrong turns out to not be that important.”
Jensen continues:
“I think that the art of writing a business plan ought to be much, much shorter. It should force you to concisely answer: What is the problem you’re trying to solve? What is the unmet need you believe will emerge? And what is it that you’re going to do that is sufficiently hard that when everybody else finds out it’s a good idea, they’re not going to swarm it and make you obsolete? It has to be sufficiently hard to do.”
Marc Andreessen echoes similar points in a separate interview:
“The process of planning is very valuable for forcing you to think hard about what you’re doing, but the actual plan that results from it is probably useless. In particular, now that we’re VCs, we’re evaluating pitches and when people come in, we want to hear their plan and we want to hear it in some detail because we want to see that they can think about the entire thing end-to-end. And if their initial plan doesn’t make sense, then obviously there’s an issue because they’re not quite capable of fully thinking this through. But when you get somebody who comes in and they present you the perfect plan and everything is fully integrated and makes sense, all you know from that is that they can come up with a good plan—which is good! But the odds that will be the plan they succeed on is still very small.”
Video source: @AcquiredFM (2023)
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NVDIA CEO Jensen Huang explains why your startup doesn't need a traditional business plan
“I didn’t know how to write a business plan… Making a financial forecast that nobody knows is going to be right or wrong turns out to not be that important.”
Jensen continues:
“I think that the art of writing a business plan ought to be much, much shorter. It should force you to concisely answer: What is the problem you’re trying to solve? What is the unmet need you believe will emerge? And what is it that you’re going to do that is sufficiently hard that when everybody else finds out it’s a good idea, they’re not going to swarm it and make you obsolete? It has to be sufficiently hard to do.”
Marc Andreessen echoes similar points in a separate interview:
“The process of planning is very valuable for forcing you to think hard about what you’re doing, but the actual plan that results from it is probably useless. In particular, now that we’re VCs, we’re evaluating pitches and when people come in, we want to hear their plan and we want to hear it in some detail because we want to see that they can think about the entire thing end-to-end. And if their initial plan doesn’t make sense, then obviously there’s an issue because they’re not quite capable of fully thinking this through. But when you get somebody who comes in and they present you the perfect plan and everything is fully integrated and makes sense, all you know from that is that they can come up with a good plan—which is good! But the odds that will be the plan they succeed on is still very small.”
Video source: @AcquiredFM (2023)
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