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App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Tuesday: $WMT, $LOW.
• Wednesday: $NVDA, $SNOW, $PANW, $TGT, $NIO, $GLBE.
• Thursday: $PDD, $ESTC, $INTU.
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday! https://t.co/t3YHBTh6ey
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What are you watching this week?
• Tuesday: $WMT, $LOW.
• Wednesday: $NVDA, $SNOW, $PANW, $TGT, $NIO, $GLBE.
• Thursday: $PDD, $ESTC, $INTU.
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday! https://t.co/t3YHBTh6ey
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Philip Morris $PM US
Thesis: PM leads the smokefree revolution with dominant positions in heated tobacco and nicotine pouches, poised for mid-teens earnings growth and a compelling 4.5% dividend yield
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/JFGsdYV1VW
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Ennismore on Philip Morris $PM US
Thesis: PM leads the smokefree revolution with dominant positions in heated tobacco and nicotine pouches, poised for mid-teens earnings growth and a compelling 4.5% dividend yield
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/JFGsdYV1VW
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Cleabridge on SBA Communications $SBAC US
Thesis: SBA stands to benefit from rising demand for data and the ongoing 5G rollout, offering strong pricing power and long-term growth potential as a leading wireless infrastructure operator
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/jHZOdAM6QW
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Cleabridge on SBA Communications $SBAC US
Thesis: SBA stands to benefit from rising demand for data and the ongoing 5G rollout, offering strong pricing power and long-term growth potential as a leading wireless infrastructure operator
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/jHZOdAM6QW
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AkhenOsiris
Canaccord on Betting Space:
Sportsbooks took a cautious approach to their Q4 outlooks after weeks of unfavorable sports outcomes, according to Canaccord. DraftKings reported a $175M EBITDA headwind for the quarter, citing the most customer-friendly stretch of NFL results in its history. Similarly, Penn Entertainment (PENN) opted not to reflect its Q3 Interactive EBITDA beat in its FY24 guidance. This conservative positioning leaves room for potential upside if conditions improve for operators before the end of the year. The weekend provided a positive start, with six underdogs winning outright in NFL week 10—including one of the five largest—and 11 of 14 underdogs covering the spread, the highest number all season. Additionally, sportsbooks likely benefited from a low-scoring week, as 10 games fell below their projected totals, including three of four prime-time matchups. In New York, the first state to report October sports betting data, total handle increased approximately 16% year-over-year to $2.3B. However, total gross gaming revenue, or GGR, grew just 6% year-over-year to $176M, reflecting the impact of customer-friendly NFL outcomes. Betting volumes remained strong despite this being the third football season with online sports betting in New York. For the week ending November 3, total handle grew 17% year-over-year to $558M, while GGR increased 38% year-over-year to $52<, indicating mixed results for sportsbooks. fanduel continued to extend its lead in new york by handle share, reaching 41% compared to draftkings' 33%. fanatics also made gains, with its market share increasing by 550 basis points year-over-year to 7%. fanduel's industry-leading hold percentage helped maintain its top position in ggr share at 51%, followed by draftkings at 32%, according to canaccord.
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Canaccord on Betting Space:
Sportsbooks took a cautious approach to their Q4 outlooks after weeks of unfavorable sports outcomes, according to Canaccord. DraftKings reported a $175M EBITDA headwind for the quarter, citing the most customer-friendly stretch of NFL results in its history. Similarly, Penn Entertainment (PENN) opted not to reflect its Q3 Interactive EBITDA beat in its FY24 guidance. This conservative positioning leaves room for potential upside if conditions improve for operators before the end of the year. The weekend provided a positive start, with six underdogs winning outright in NFL week 10—including one of the five largest—and 11 of 14 underdogs covering the spread, the highest number all season. Additionally, sportsbooks likely benefited from a low-scoring week, as 10 games fell below their projected totals, including three of four prime-time matchups. In New York, the first state to report October sports betting data, total handle increased approximately 16% year-over-year to $2.3B. However, total gross gaming revenue, or GGR, grew just 6% year-over-year to $176M, reflecting the impact of customer-friendly NFL outcomes. Betting volumes remained strong despite this being the third football season with online sports betting in New York. For the week ending November 3, total handle grew 17% year-over-year to $558M, while GGR increased 38% year-over-year to $52<, indicating mixed results for sportsbooks. fanduel continued to extend its lead in new york by handle share, reaching 41% compared to draftkings' 33%. fanatics also made gains, with its market share increasing by 550 basis points year-over-year to 7%. fanduel's industry-leading hold percentage helped maintain its top position in ggr share at 51%, followed by draftkings at 32%, according to canaccord.
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AkhenOsiris
The Generalist on Scaling Laws:
The AI community cannot resolve this holy war any time soon; there are no facts to be brought to this feelings fight. Instead, we should turn our attention to what it would mean for AI to question its devotion to scaling laws. A loss of faith could have cascading effects beyond LLMS, impacting all industries and markets.
It should be said that we haven't yet exhausted scaling laws in most areas of AI/ ML; there are more miracles to come. However, if doubt does creep in, it will become much harder for investors and builders alike to have similarly high conviction in the terminal state of performance for "earlier in the curve" categories like biotech and robotics. Put another way, if we see LLMS begin to slow down and stray from the anointed path, the belief systems of many founders and investors will collapse in adjacent areas.
Whether or not this is fair is a different question. open.substack.com/pub/thegen…
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The Generalist on Scaling Laws:
The AI community cannot resolve this holy war any time soon; there are no facts to be brought to this feelings fight. Instead, we should turn our attention to what it would mean for AI to question its devotion to scaling laws. A loss of faith could have cascading effects beyond LLMS, impacting all industries and markets.
It should be said that we haven't yet exhausted scaling laws in most areas of AI/ ML; there are more miracles to come. However, if doubt does creep in, it will become much harder for investors and builders alike to have similarly high conviction in the terminal state of performance for "earlier in the curve" categories like biotech and robotics. Put another way, if we see LLMS begin to slow down and stray from the anointed path, the belief systems of many founders and investors will collapse in adjacent areas.
Whether or not this is fair is a different question. open.substack.com/pub/thegen…
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
What Dev Kantesaria of Valley Forge looks for when investing in stocks📚
“We are looking for companies that provide essential products & services that have a long history of pricing power, that have a dominant market position that we think is not subject to significant disruption.
We like to see a company operate in an industry whose volumes are going up significantly overtime. The companies that we invest in often have many different levels to win.”
#stocks #investing
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What Dev Kantesaria of Valley Forge looks for when investing in stocks📚
“We are looking for companies that provide essential products & services that have a long history of pricing power, that have a dominant market position that we think is not subject to significant disruption.
We like to see a company operate in an industry whose volumes are going up significantly overtime. The companies that we invest in often have many different levels to win.”
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$PEP trading near its lowest earnings multiple in the last 5 years🥤
#stocks #investing #dividends https://t.co/5620Onr3IZ
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$PEP trading near its lowest earnings multiple in the last 5 years🥤
#stocks #investing #dividends https://t.co/5620Onr3IZ
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harding Loevner on Clicks Group $CLS SJ
Thesis: Clicks’s dominant market position and vertically integrated model set the stage for accelerated growth in South Africa’s underpenetrated pharmacy sector, with expanding market share and high ROE as key drivers
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
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Harding Loevner on Clicks Group $CLS SJ
Thesis: Clicks’s dominant market position and vertically integrated model set the stage for accelerated growth in South Africa’s underpenetrated pharmacy sector, with expanding market share and high ROE as key drivers
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Auto Trader $AUTO LN
Thesis: Auto Trader’s dominance in the UK market and its accelerating digital retail growth set it up for sustained double-digit revenue growth, making it a compelling play on the automotive classifieds sector
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/bgFqfH2HDb
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Ennismore on Auto Trader $AUTO LN
Thesis: Auto Trader’s dominance in the UK market and its accelerating digital retail growth set it up for sustained double-digit revenue growth, making it a compelling play on the automotive classifieds sector
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/bgFqfH2HDb
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Steve Jobs: The difference between good people and great people in software is 50-to-1
“I’ve always considered part of my job was to keep the quality level of people in the organizations I work with very high. I mean that’s what I consider one of the few things I can contribute individually myself — versus the team that work with — is to really try to instill in the organization the goal of having only A players.”
Steve argues this is especially important in technology where there’s a huge range between the best person and the worst person:
“In a lot of fields, the difference between, say, the worst taxicab driver and the best taxicab driver to get you across town in Manhattan might be 2-to-1. The best one will get you there in 15 minutes, the worst one will get you there in half an hour… Or the best cook and the worst cook, maybe it’s 3-to-1… But in the field that I’m in. In software in particular. The difference between the best person and the worst person is about 100-to-1 or more.”
He continues:
“The difference between a good software person and a great software person is probably 50-to-1 or 25-to-1. Huge dynamic range. And therefore, I have found — and not just in software but in almost everything I’ve done — it really pays to go after the best people in the world.”
But as Steve points out, this isn’t always easy:
“It’s very painful when you have some people that are not the best people in the world, and you have to get rid of them. But I’ve found that my job has sometimes been exactly that, to get rid of some of the people that didn’t measure up. And I’ve always tried to do it in a humane way, but nonetheless it has to be done and it’s not ever fun.”
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Steve Jobs: The difference between good people and great people in software is 50-to-1
“I’ve always considered part of my job was to keep the quality level of people in the organizations I work with very high. I mean that’s what I consider one of the few things I can contribute individually myself — versus the team that work with — is to really try to instill in the organization the goal of having only A players.”
Steve argues this is especially important in technology where there’s a huge range between the best person and the worst person:
“In a lot of fields, the difference between, say, the worst taxicab driver and the best taxicab driver to get you across town in Manhattan might be 2-to-1. The best one will get you there in 15 minutes, the worst one will get you there in half an hour… Or the best cook and the worst cook, maybe it’s 3-to-1… But in the field that I’m in. In software in particular. The difference between the best person and the worst person is about 100-to-1 or more.”
He continues:
“The difference between a good software person and a great software person is probably 50-to-1 or 25-to-1. Huge dynamic range. And therefore, I have found — and not just in software but in almost everything I’ve done — it really pays to go after the best people in the world.”
But as Steve points out, this isn’t always easy:
“It’s very painful when you have some people that are not the best people in the world, and you have to get rid of them. But I’ve found that my job has sometimes been exactly that, to get rid of some of the people that didn’t measure up. And I’ve always tried to do it in a humane way, but nonetheless it has to be done and it’s not ever fun.”
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Investing visuals
Celsius $CELH is turning up the heat on giants like Red Bull and Monster $MNST. Yet, the stock is down nearly 75% since its May peak.
Here's everything you need to know about $CELH 👇 https://t.co/Vcy3SrGRvT
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Celsius $CELH is turning up the heat on giants like Red Bull and Monster $MNST. Yet, the stock is down nearly 75% since its May peak.
Here's everything you need to know about $CELH 👇 https://t.co/Vcy3SrGRvT
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Flutter Entertainment $FLTR LN
Thesis: Flutter’s dominant global position, strategic acquisitions, and booming US market potential position it for triple-digit earnings growth, making it a top pick in the online gambling sector.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/utTaBuhbUx
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Ennismore on Flutter Entertainment $FLTR LN
Thesis: Flutter’s dominant global position, strategic acquisitions, and booming US market potential position it for triple-digit earnings growth, making it a top pick in the online gambling sector.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/utTaBuhbUx
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