Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
RT @kouroshshafi: Amazon down despite Bezos done selling,
US Retail sales print positive for e-commerce (+9.4% vs +7.7% last month)
Alt data estimate full 4Q North America net sales could grow 10% to 11% Y/Y, trending above Visible
Alpha (VA) consensus (8% Y/Y)
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RT @kouroshshafi: Amazon down despite Bezos done selling,
US Retail sales print positive for e-commerce (+9.4% vs +7.7% last month)
Alt data estimate full 4Q North America net sales could grow 10% to 11% Y/Y, trending above Visible
Alpha (VA) consensus (8% Y/Y)
13f highlights - Kouroshtweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @shrihacker: new definition of Diva:
expects a lot
drives hard
controversial
passionate
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RT @shrihacker: new definition of Diva:
expects a lot
drives hard
controversial
passionate
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on why you should hire the divas: “Steve Jobs was a diva”
“If you read any management textbook, it says ‘don’t hire the divas’ because they’re nothing but a pain in the ass. And by the way, they are. But the people who are the divas—who believe—are the ones who will drive the culture and company to excellence. Steve Jobs was a diva. I worked with Bill Joy who was my colleague for many years—he’s an example of a diva. And I mean this in the most flattering way: they expect a lot, they drive people hard, they’re controversial, and they care passionately. If you find those people, you’re probably going to work for one so be nice to them.”
However, Eric does not mean that you should tolerate arrogant jerks at your company.
In his book How Google Works, he uses use the terms “divas” and “knaves” to distinguish between who you should tolerate and who you shouldn’t:
“Knavish behavior is a product of low integrity; diva-ish behavior is one of high exceptionalism. Knaves prioritize the individual over the team; divas think they are better than the team, but want success equally for both. Knaves need to be dealt with as quickly as possible. But as long as their contributions match their outlandish egos, divas should be tolerated and even protected. Great people are often unusual and difficult, and some of those quirks can be quite off-putting. Since culture is about social norms and divas refuse to be normal, cultural factors can conspire
to sweep out the divas along with the knaves. As long as people can figure out any way to work with the divas, and the divas’ achievements outweigh the collateral damage caused by their diva ways, you should fight for them. They will pay off your investment by doing interesting things.”
Video source: @GreylockVC (2015) tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: This week has been a busy one for insider trading, and while the S&P 500 is down 2.3% on the week, several insiders saw an early profit on their trades.
Here's a round-up on all of the $1M+ insider buys that we reported on this week:
$44M purchase of $SATS by Board Chairman on 11/14. Since our report, the stock has been flat.
$14.4M purchase by $OSCR CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$6M purchase by $BH CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has been flat.
$2.1M purchase by $SEDG Board Chairman on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$2M purchase by $ROK CFO on 11/12. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$1.9M purchase by $SMLR director on 11/12. Since then the stock has fallen 10%.
$1M purchase by $EXAS CEO on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 1%.
tweet
RT @InsiderRadar: This week has been a busy one for insider trading, and while the S&P 500 is down 2.3% on the week, several insiders saw an early profit on their trades.
Here's a round-up on all of the $1M+ insider buys that we reported on this week:
$44M purchase of $SATS by Board Chairman on 11/14. Since our report, the stock has been flat.
$14.4M purchase by $OSCR CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$6M purchase by $BH CEO on 11/14. Since then the stock has been flat.
$2.1M purchase by $SEDG Board Chairman on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$2M purchase by $ROK CFO on 11/12. Since then the stock has risen 3%.
$1.9M purchase by $SMLR director on 11/12. Since then the stock has fallen 10%.
$1M purchase by $EXAS CEO on 11/13. Since then the stock has risen 1%.
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate
However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand
Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate
However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand
Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Capital Employed
RT @longcastadviser: i'm not sure being a buddhist makes anyone a better investor, but i know a lot of PM's who are practicing buddhists. it reinforces the view that investing is about emotional self management, sitting with discomfort and giving up on certainty and want.
tweet
RT @longcastadviser: i'm not sure being a buddhist makes anyone a better investor, but i know a lot of PM's who are practicing buddhists. it reinforces the view that investing is about emotional self management, sitting with discomfort and giving up on certainty and want.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Longriver Partners Fund on Hikari $6247
Thesis: Hikari Tsushin, the 'Berkshire of Japan, offers a rare deep value opportunity, trading at just 3x trailing earnings with a portfolio of stable, asset-light businesses
(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the analysis in SAC#64) https://t.co/8owrUBCuLb
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Longriver Partners Fund on Hikari $6247
Thesis: Hikari Tsushin, the 'Berkshire of Japan, offers a rare deep value opportunity, trading at just 3x trailing earnings with a portfolio of stable, asset-light businesses
(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the analysis in SAC#64) https://t.co/8owrUBCuLb
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Baltic Classifieds Group $BCG LN
Thesis: Baltic Classifieds stands out with market dominance, exceptional margins, and sustained double-digit growth, making it a high-quality play on the rapidly expanding Baltic economies
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UH6IHeIbXk
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Ennismore on Baltic Classifieds Group $BCG LN
Thesis: Baltic Classifieds stands out with market dominance, exceptional margins, and sustained double-digit growth, making it a high-quality play on the rapidly expanding Baltic economies
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UH6IHeIbXk
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
I'll be sharing a Celcius $CELH one-pager analysis soon!
Would you also be interested in a side-by-side comparison with their main competitor Monster $MNST? https://t.co/VLd08Bpytf
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I'll be sharing a Celcius $CELH one-pager analysis soon!
Would you also be interested in a side-by-side comparison with their main competitor Monster $MNST? https://t.co/VLd08Bpytf
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Rick Rubin on the power of creating something truly for yourself
Elon Musk has said that Rick Rubin’s philosophy of creating something truly for yourself is how Tesla creates products.
Rick elaborates on this philosophy in the clip below:
“My only goal is to make something that I like, and I know that I can keep working on it until I like it. So in some ways there’s no pressure.”
Rick doesn’t consider the audience at all:
“The audience comes last… I’m not making it for them. I’m making it for me. And it turns out that when you make something truly for yourself, you’re doing the best thing you possibly can for the audience.”
He argues that this is why there are so many bad movies today:
“So many big movies are just not good. It’s because they’re are not being made by a person who cares about it. They’re being made by people who are trying to make something they think someone else will like. And that’s not how art works.”
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt argues a similar point:
"If you think about the greatest products, they've almost always been designed for the benefit of the people who are actually building them.”
Uber started out as a private timeshare limousine service for Garrett Camp and his friends. Microsoft started when Bill Gates and Paul Allen wrote a Basic interpreter for the Altair so they didn’t have to write machine language to program it. Drew Houston built Dropbox to make his files live online after forgetting his USB stick. Larry Page and Sergey Brin built Google for Stanford—and particularly for themselves—with the first server in Larry’s dorm room.
Video source: @LewisHowes (2023)
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Rick Rubin on the power of creating something truly for yourself
Elon Musk has said that Rick Rubin’s philosophy of creating something truly for yourself is how Tesla creates products.
Rick elaborates on this philosophy in the clip below:
“My only goal is to make something that I like, and I know that I can keep working on it until I like it. So in some ways there’s no pressure.”
Rick doesn’t consider the audience at all:
“The audience comes last… I’m not making it for them. I’m making it for me. And it turns out that when you make something truly for yourself, you’re doing the best thing you possibly can for the audience.”
He argues that this is why there are so many bad movies today:
“So many big movies are just not good. It’s because they’re are not being made by a person who cares about it. They’re being made by people who are trying to make something they think someone else will like. And that’s not how art works.”
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt argues a similar point:
"If you think about the greatest products, they've almost always been designed for the benefit of the people who are actually building them.”
Uber started out as a private timeshare limousine service for Garrett Camp and his friends. Microsoft started when Bill Gates and Paul Allen wrote a Basic interpreter for the Altair so they didn’t have to write machine language to program it. Drew Houston built Dropbox to make his files live online after forgetting his USB stick. Larry Page and Sergey Brin built Google for Stanford—and particularly for themselves—with the first server in Larry’s dorm room.
Video source: @LewisHowes (2023)
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