⁠App Economy Insights
$BRK Berkshire Hathaway Q3 FY24.

• No buybacks. 👀
• $AAPL stake cut by ~25%.
• Cash and short-term securities $325B. https://t.co/Utu6U9cR9x
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⁠Startup Archive
Paul Graham on why starting with a “small, intense fire" is the key to startup growth

“You’ve got to find people who want what you’re making A LOT. And that's necessarily going to be a small number at first. But that's ok. That’s how these giant things get started… You don’t have to do any better than Apple and Facebook.”

Apple started by selling just 500 Apple I computers. Today it’s the largest company in the world.

"You have to know who those first users are and how you're going to get them. Then you're going to sit down and just have a party with those first few users and focus entirely on them and making them super super happy."

He gives another example of a startup in a Y Combinator batch with a beta group of just one user: Sam Altman.

This startup was building a new mobile email client and their goal was to just make Sam happy. Sam uses email a lot on the go and knows all of the other email client options, so he is sufficiently demanding.

If they can build a product that makes Sam happy, odds are it will make lots of other people happy too.

"One of the things we tell startups in these extreme cases where they can make just one user happy is to act like a consultant. Act like Sam has hired you to make an email app just for him. All you have to do is make Sam happy--it can say 'Sam Altman' at the top of the screen. That's ok! Just so long as Sam would feel bummed if you stopped working on it. That's the test."

Video source: @twistartups @Jason (2014)
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Lineage $LINE US

Thesis: Lineage’s strategic position in temperature-controlled warehousing and consistent growth make it a valuable partner for the global frozen food supply chain.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Wbfme7htvJ
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Two & a half months ago I stated:

“Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment”

Since then, $BKNG shares rallied +31% ✅

As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽

“As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)

Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple”

$BKNG has plenty room for margin expansion💰

#stocks #investing

A sober valuation analysis on $BKNG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.75x
•3-Year Mean: 21.24x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
•3-Year Mean: 4.79%

As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~17% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $BKNG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.33B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.36B

$BKNG has a great balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 8.41x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.3%
•2020: 2.7%
•2021: 14.2%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 47.3%
•LTM: 48.4%

$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $6.79B
•2023: $21.37B
•CAGR: 12.14%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.22B
•2023: $7.00B
•CAGR: 12.16%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $41.72
•2023: $152.22
•CAGR: 13.81%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 52.41M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 35.04M

By reducing its shares outstanding 33%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 50% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~17% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 9.88% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than (9.88%) required growth rate:

2024E: $175.64 (15.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $201.51 (14.7% YoY)
2026E: $236.96 (17.6% YoY)

$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $236.96 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

21x P/E: $4,976.16💵 … ~15.5% CAGR

20x P/E: $4,739.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

19x P/E: $4,502.24💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

18x P/E: $4,265.28💵 … ~8.2% CAGR

17x P/E: $4,028.32💵 … ~5.6% CAGR

As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)

Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple

Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment

I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $3,400 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 6% below today’s share price or at $3,400.00💵

This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a conservative 18x 2026 earnings estimates, a large margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @RpsAgainstTrump: You were warned https://t.co/L86tr2tZmR
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @vkhosla: Hopefully we don't see @realDonaldTrump and his disastrous economic policy, largest deficit ever created by a President in one term, largest tax cuts for the rich, disastrous climate debt, isolationist, ... Biden created more jobs per month than Trump, and th comparison holds for deficits and jobs pre and post covid!

This is insane. There are over 100 hours of recordings of Epstein talking about his relationship with Trump and describing the inner workings of the Trump white house. https://t.co/jd9RSomITZ - Alejandra Caraballo is on Bluesky/Threads
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on Genuine Parts Company $GPC US

Thesis: Genuine Parts Company’s leading position in automotive and industrial parts, combined with steady demand and acquisition-driven growth, makes it a compelling value play.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/dbyVGDEkmn
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: $AAPL shouldn’t be trading for >31x
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @CalltoActivism: BREAKING NEWS:

Legendary actor Harrison Ford has OFFICIALLY endorsed Kamala Harris in an awesome video:

“I’ve been voting for 64 years.

Never really wanted to talk about it very much but when dozens of former members of the Trump administration are sounding alarms saying “for God sake don't do this again” — you have to pay attention.

The truth is this Kamala Harris will protect your right to disagree with her about policies or ideas and then as we have done for centuries.”

Drop a 💙 if you agree and appreciate Harrison Ford for speaking out!!
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⁠Librarian Capital
"People Are Hooked on Costco Hearing Aids" (WSJ)

$COST sells hearing aids at "586 of its 615 US stores"
"Products from 3 major hearing-aid brands, starting at $1,500" , vs. $3,500-7,000 from audiologist clinics
~16% of US market

$WMT Sam's Club also sells hearing aids

Costco has cultivated a loyal following for its hearing aids. Free cleanings, low prices and no-pressure sales have created a buzz, @juliejargon reports. https://t.co/PNa5kTBZaN - The Wall Street Journal
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