⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.89x
•10-Year Mean: 23.60x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.21%
•10-Year Mean: 4.17%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & ~1% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.45% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.45%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.66 (32.0% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.70 (13.7% YoY)
2026E: $9.98 (14.7% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.98 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $229.54💵 … ~15.9% CAGR

22x P/E: $219.56💵 … ~13.5% CAGR

21x P/E: $209.58💵 … ~11.1% CAGR

20x P/E: $199.60💵 … ~8.7% CAGR

19x P/E: $189.62💵 … ~6.2% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >23x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Although those buying today have a slightly less margin of safety than those who accumulated a few months ago when $GOOG traded for $150 …

Today at $168💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Ahmad Jivraj
Columbia Business School Professor Joel Greenblatt returned 40% per year for over a decade.

He asked his students: Why do stock prices fluctuate so much?

His Answer: "I don’t know and I don’t care. I just want to take advantage of it."

Prices fluctuate much more than business values...therein lies the opportunity!
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⁠App Economy Insights
$PYPL PayPal Q3 FY24:

• TPV +9% Y/Y fx neutral to $423B.
• Active accounts +1% Y/Y to 432M.
• Transactions per active +9% Y/Y to 61.
• Revenue +6% Y/Y to $7.8B ($90M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.20 ($0.13 beat).
• Q4 FY24 rev. guidance low single-digit. https://t.co/dasIorZ4S2
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
MSCI Inc $MSCI Reports a Strong Q3 🎯

✅ Revenue: $724.71M vs $715.6M (est)

✅ Adjusted EPS: $3.86 vs $3.77 (est)

⬆️ Guidance

#stocks #investing https://t.co/F4wF11cO7x

~6 months ago I suggested that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment at $446💵

Since then, $MSCI shares have rallied +35% ✅

As I stated in my analysis:

“Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety

Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment”

#stocks #investing - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: The CEO of $WGO just reported purchasing $138K of his company's stock.

This is the first insider purchase he has ever filed. https://t.co/KMMBKvXGSX
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
O'Keefe Stevens on Southwest Gas Corporation $SWX US

Thesis: Southwest Gas is well-positioned for rate-based growth driven by population increase in key regions and proposed rate filings, enhancing earnings potential.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/YLSMJIaPbH
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⁠Investing visuals
One of my favorite companies reports earnings tomorrow: here’s the Microsoft $MSFT preview👇🔍

🔹Est. Revenue: $64.6 Bln (+14.2%)
🔹Est. EBITDA: $35.0 Bln (+13.4%)
🔹Est. Earnings per share: $3.10 (+3.8%)

Whats your take on $MSFT? https://t.co/5nEJ1jM5x2
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⁠Startup Archive
Mark Zuckerberg on why experience isn't that important

“I started Facebook when I was 19, so I can’t really believe that experience is all that important or else I would have a hard time reconciling myself and the company. At Facebook, we invest in people that we think are just really talented even if they haven’t done that thing before.”

For Facebook, this applies to people who are fresh out of university all the up way to Facebook’s CFO David Ebersman who took the company public, even though he had never taken a company public before.

As Mark explains, the key to hiring well is to just hire really talented people. And you can often assess raw talent from the different things they’ve done, such as side projects and other accomplishments.

“I think what’s important is to not believe that someone has to have specifically done the job they’re going to do in order to do it well.”

Mark also points out that when you constantly create opportunity for your employees regardless of their experience, it keeps your best people engaged and attracts the best talent to your company.

Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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