AkhenOsiris
A new Bloomberg analysis of 500 hedge funds tracked by Hazeltree, a data compiler in the alternative investment industry, finds an increasing number of Wall Street hedge funds are, on average, net short batteries, solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen companies compared to those long green companies.

Data also shows that more funds are net long fossil fuels than shorting oil, natural gas, and coal. This comes despite the Western world and China deploying hundreds of billions of dollars in green stimuli packages to support these industries.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: $APP BofA says "valuation too low for a core biz growing 20% sustainably"

AppLovin reiterated Buy, but massive target upgrade $120 -> $210
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Royce IP on Artisan Partners $APAM US

Thesis: Artisan Partners is benefiting from its long-term value creation strategy and recovery in assets under management, with strong potential for further share price appreciation

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/bfM4ngFrrM
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: To ensure accuracy, here are the most recent & updated $ASML Normalized EPS estimates attached below 👇🏽

Keep in mind that in yesterday’s post I assumed $30.00 in 2026 EPS, still below current estimates 🧮

#stocks #investing https://t.co/ew0Wq8Z4oG

A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
•10-Year Mean: 31.07x

As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.23B

$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 38.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 49.2%

$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%

FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:

2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)

$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, let’s be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $900💵 … ~14.2% CAGR

29x P/E: $870💵 … ~12.4% CAGR

28x P/E: $840💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $810💵 … ~8.9% CAGR

26x P/E: $780💵 … ~7.1% CAGR

As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below today’s estimates

Today at $683💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility

Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a “fundamental bottom” (as you’ll see in the first photo)

As I’ve stated before, given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @StockMKTNewz: Warren Buffett talking about the importance of patience 👀

https://t.co/8IRicEcPRh
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
🚨 Nancy Pelosi is now worth $257,000,000, per our estimates.

She has made $12M in the stock market in just over a month. https://t.co/P7m02lqXLI
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⁠Investing visuals
Palantir $PLTR is a gem. It is also priced for perfection🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/04TZTZ4YFE
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Headwaters Capital on Medpace $MEDP US

Thesis: Medpace is leveraging cyclical downturns to repurchase shares aggressively, positioning itself to capitalize on long-term growth in the biotech sector

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/4tMgrhzRYN
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⁠App Economy Insights
$SAP SAP Q3 FY24:

• Cloud backlog +29% in cc to €15.4B.
• Revenue +9% to €8.5B (€0.1B beat).
• Adj. EPS +6% to €1.23 (€0.02 beat).
• FY24 revenue ~€29.7B (€0.4B raise).

Cloud revenue outlook unchanged:
• FY24: €17.0 to €17.3B (+25% Y/Y). https://t.co/uITRx3b6yg
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