⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 31.89x
•10-Year Mean: 33.66x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.44%
•10-Year Mean: 3.70%

As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere near fair value & over fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~7# LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $4.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.54B

$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.5%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%

$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.51
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 13.70%

FREE CASH FLOW✅*
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $16.94
•2024: $3.49
•CAGR: 17.11%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.2%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 15.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (15.95%) required growth rate:

2025E: $19.34 (14.1% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.24 (15.0% YoY)
2027E: $25.41 (14.3% YoY)

$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.41 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

32x P/E: $708.16💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

31x P/E: $686.03💵 … ~9.6% CAGR

30x P/E: $663.90💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

29x P/E: $641.77💵 … ~7.1% CAGR

While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety (given today’s $619💵 share price)

I’d consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $570💵, or ~29.40 NTM earnings (~8% below todays price)

Given today’s estimates, at $570💵 I can reasonably expect ~10.3% CAGR while assuming a 29x end multiple

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠App Economy Insights
$TSM TSMC Q3 FY24:

• Revenue +36% Y/Y $23.5B ($0.2B beat).
• Gross margin 58% (+4pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin 47% (+6pp Y/Y).
• Capex $6.4B.
• EPADR $1.94 ($0.15 beat).

3nm & 5nm were 20% & 32% of revenue. https://t.co/ZItyG9XEKM
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⁠Investing visuals
Strong earnings by $TSM, stock is up +4% overnight, hitting an all-time-high🫡

$TSM TSMC Q3 FY24:

• Revenue +36% Y/Y $23.5B ($0.2B beat).
• Gross margin 58% (+4pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin 47% (+6pp Y/Y).
• Capex $6.4B.
• EPADR $1.94 ($0.15 beat).

3nm & 5nm were 20% & 32% of revenue. https://t.co/ZItyG9XEKM - App Economy Insights
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
This is quite interesting 👉🏼 $UBER looked at acquiring $EXPE especially since the current Uber CEO is the former CEO of Expedia and worked at its parent, $IAC before.

Expedia changed its CEO this year and announced a few turnaround measures.

The stock is super cheap at 12x PE, obviously struggled to grow and is facing weaker demand now...but still looks like an interesting long idea.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
BIT Capital on Hellofresh $HFG GR

Thesis: Hellofresh's growth prospects are driven by stabilizing meal-kit profits, cost reductions, and expansion into new food categories, supported by insider buying from the Founder-CEO

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/GkCOuLxUEE
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Protean funds on Novo Nordisk $NOVOB DC

Thesis: Novo Nordisk's recent dip is a buying opportunity, with continued growth potential supported by strong fundamentals and an anticipated read-out of key data in Q4

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/RHy5zLxd8N
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⁠Startup Archive
Elon Musk on how to choose what to work on

“I don’t think everything needs to change the world. There’s lots of useful things that people do, and I think it should really be like a usefulness optimization.”

For anyone trying to figure out what to work on, Elon suggests asking yourself, “Is what I’m doing as useful as it could be?”

He continues:

“Even if something isn’t changing the world but it’s making people’s lives better, I think that’s great.”

Elon gives the example of an app that makes people’s lives only slightly better - the area under the curve of the usefulness optimization is quite good if it’s affecting a lot of people.

Video source: @ECorner (2015)
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
•10-Year Mean: 31.07x

As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.23B

$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 38.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 49.2%

$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%

FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:

2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)

$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, let’s be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $900💵 … ~14.2% CAGR

29x P/E: $870💵 … ~12.4% CAGR

28x P/E: $840💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $810💵 … ~8.9% CAGR

26x P/E: $780💵 … ~7.1% CAGR

As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below today’s estimates

Today at $683💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility

Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a “fundamental bottom” (as you’ll see in the first photo)

As I’ve stated before, given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvium on Visa $V US

Thesis: Visa dominates the global payments landscape, leveraging its strong networks and brand to capture the shift towards digital transactions and electronic payments.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/HM5N3ZA71O
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