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Quiver Quantitative
I built a bot which buys stocks that are being bought by politicians.
It has been beating the market.
Some of the trades it mimics are very suspicious.
Here are a few of them:
LOCKHEED MARTIN, $LMT
On October 17th of 2022, the strategy entered a position in Lockheed Martin.
This came after purchases of up to $115K of Lockheed stock by Representative Scott Franklin.
The day after the strategy entered this position, Lockheed announced better-than-expected quarterly revenue due to increased demand for its F-35 fighter jets.
Representative Scott Franklin sits on the House Committee on Appropriations, which oversees government expenditures.
Lockheed rose over 18% in the following two months.
ARTIVION, $AORT
On November 27th, the strategy entered a position in Artivion.
This came after purchases of up to $200K of Artivion stock by Senator Tina Smith.
Artivion is a small medical device company. Smith sits on the Senate Committee on Health.
The stock rose 25% within two weeks of the trade.
It has now risen 87% since the trade was made.
NGL ENERGY, $NGL
On April 10th, the strategy entered a position in NGL Energy.
This move was made as a result of Representative Mark Green’s March 24th purchase of up to $250K of NGL stock, which was disclosed on April 1st.
NGL rose 75% over the next 6 months.
We estimate that Representative Green made more money off of his NGL trading than he did from his congressional salary in 2023.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It’s worth noting that despite the performance of the Congress Buys Strategy, it may still be held back by weak disclosure regulations.
Members of Congress are given 45 days to disclose transactions, but the penalty for late disclosures is a mere $200.
Until Congress does manage to do a better job regulating itself, you can check out Quiver to see their most recent trades and track the strategy.
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I built a bot which buys stocks that are being bought by politicians.
It has been beating the market.
Some of the trades it mimics are very suspicious.
Here are a few of them:
LOCKHEED MARTIN, $LMT
On October 17th of 2022, the strategy entered a position in Lockheed Martin.
This came after purchases of up to $115K of Lockheed stock by Representative Scott Franklin.
The day after the strategy entered this position, Lockheed announced better-than-expected quarterly revenue due to increased demand for its F-35 fighter jets.
Representative Scott Franklin sits on the House Committee on Appropriations, which oversees government expenditures.
Lockheed rose over 18% in the following two months.
ARTIVION, $AORT
On November 27th, the strategy entered a position in Artivion.
This came after purchases of up to $200K of Artivion stock by Senator Tina Smith.
Artivion is a small medical device company. Smith sits on the Senate Committee on Health.
The stock rose 25% within two weeks of the trade.
It has now risen 87% since the trade was made.
NGL ENERGY, $NGL
On April 10th, the strategy entered a position in NGL Energy.
This move was made as a result of Representative Mark Green’s March 24th purchase of up to $250K of NGL stock, which was disclosed on April 1st.
NGL rose 75% over the next 6 months.
We estimate that Representative Green made more money off of his NGL trading than he did from his congressional salary in 2023.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It’s worth noting that despite the performance of the Congress Buys Strategy, it may still be held back by weak disclosure regulations.
Members of Congress are given 45 days to disclose transactions, but the penalty for late disclosures is a mere $200.
Until Congress does manage to do a better job regulating itself, you can check out Quiver to see their most recent trades and track the strategy.
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Librarian Capital
Union Pacific $UNP, 2023 vs. 2019 figures:
Track (miles): 52.1k vs. 51.7k
Locomotives: 7.2k vs. 7.7k
Revenue ton miles (bn): 413.3 vs. 423.4
Avg. revenue/car: $2.78k vs. $2.43k
Freight revenues: $22.6bn vs. $20.2bn
Op ratio: 62.3% vs. 60.6%
Op CF: $8.38bn vs. $8.61bn
Ex-growth? https://t.co/mg6MVCFLgC
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Union Pacific $UNP, 2023 vs. 2019 figures:
Track (miles): 52.1k vs. 51.7k
Locomotives: 7.2k vs. 7.7k
Revenue ton miles (bn): 413.3 vs. 423.4
Avg. revenue/car: $2.78k vs. $2.43k
Freight revenues: $22.6bn vs. $20.2bn
Op ratio: 62.3% vs. 60.6%
Op CF: $8.38bn vs. $8.61bn
Ex-growth? https://t.co/mg6MVCFLgC
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Capital Employed
46 Top Stock Pitches (1st-15th October)💡
This is the biggest and most epic one we have published yet.
46 interesting ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches for subscribers to work through!
https://t.co/Z8N7AKZNvy https://t.co/RFrYVcoxVK
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46 Top Stock Pitches (1st-15th October)💡
This is the biggest and most epic one we have published yet.
46 interesting ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches for subscribers to work through!
https://t.co/Z8N7AKZNvy https://t.co/RFrYVcoxVK
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Hidden Value Gems
Even if you could read market news before it is published, you may still lose money. Ex LTCM co-founder, Victor Haghani held an experiment showing past important articles to traders who could bet based on this info. Most actually lost money!
H/t @Spencerjakab https://t.co/YDtEcNxaB9
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Even if you could read market news before it is published, you may still lose money. Ex LTCM co-founder, Victor Haghani held an experiment showing past important articles to traders who could bet based on this info. Most actually lost money!
H/t @Spencerjakab https://t.co/YDtEcNxaB9
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Librarian Capital
Ruffer Investment Co. $RICA NAV gained 1% in Sep-24
"Almost entirely accounted for by ... Chinese equities"
Which means almost everything else lost money
NAV gained 5.8% LTM but lost -7.1% in 12 months before
FTSE All-Share up ~13% in each period
Odd kind of defensive, this https://t.co/x5SOhoZxzT
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Ruffer Investment Co. $RICA NAV gained 1% in Sep-24
"Almost entirely accounted for by ... Chinese equities"
Which means almost everything else lost money
NAV gained 5.8% LTM but lost -7.1% in 12 months before
FTSE All-Share up ~13% in each period
Odd kind of defensive, this https://t.co/x5SOhoZxzT
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Librarian Capital
"Podcaster raises one of Europe’s biggest venture funds" (FT)
New 2nd fund is $400m
1st fund was $140m in 2021
"28-year-old British podcaster Harry Stebbings"
Backers include MIT and Josh Kushner
https://t.co/TjUejrxHTB
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"Podcaster raises one of Europe’s biggest venture funds" (FT)
New 2nd fund is $400m
1st fund was $140m in 2021
"28-year-old British podcaster Harry Stebbings"
Backers include MIT and Josh Kushner
https://t.co/TjUejrxHTB
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Librarian Capital
Business lessons from OnlyFans?
"But being a retail salesperson ... is not scalable"
"If you have tens of thousands of fans sending you messages, it’s hard to upsell them"
"The only way to keep up ... is to hire staff"
"Many use agencies and chatters, often in the Philippines" https://t.co/lD7vbfrCjo
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Business lessons from OnlyFans?
"But being a retail salesperson ... is not scalable"
"If you have tens of thousands of fans sending you messages, it’s hard to upsell them"
"The only way to keep up ... is to hire staff"
"Many use agencies and chatters, often in the Philippines" https://t.co/lD7vbfrCjo
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Hidden Value Gems
Just published my latest portfolio review (+6.8% in Q3 / +16.2% in 9M 2024).
Link in bio. https://t.co/onz5YKUDFC
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Just published my latest portfolio review (+6.8% in Q3 / +16.2% in 9M 2024).
Link in bio. https://t.co/onz5YKUDFC
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Startup Archive
Pinterest founder Ben Silbermann on the 3 lessons he learned about raising venture capital
“There are lots of ways for investors to say to no to you and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard all of them… And I’ve learned three important lessons that I think any entrepreneur should know if they’re starting the kind of company they think will need funding.”
The three lessons Ben learned are:
1. Investors are just people too. “Investors are just regular people… and even though they have a really good opinion on things, they might be wrong. That was something that was really hard for me to swallow because I really looked up to all these people.”
2. If you need money and they’re the only person who can give you money, you have zero leverage. “There’s nothing you can do unless you hack that system and give them a reason that you should have the leverage. And those reasons generally are fear of losing the deal or the belief that this thing is just going to be so big that whether they give you money or not, you’re just going to be wildly successful.”
3. The future is unwritten. “People can tell you that you should be more technical. They can tell you that you’re in the wrong market. They can tell you all these things, and those things might be true, and you should assess them for yourself. But you shouldn’t take it on face because they could be wrong. And in the back of your head, you have to remember that for all the millions of dollars venture capital investors have made and for all of the IPO certificates on the wall, there are things that they passed on, and those are the things that actually haunt them at night. And if you can convince somebody that you just might be the one that’s going to beat the odds, you can be successful. And it’s a general attitude that I think is important, whether you’re recruiting or raising money.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2012)
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Pinterest founder Ben Silbermann on the 3 lessons he learned about raising venture capital
“There are lots of ways for investors to say to no to you and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard all of them… And I’ve learned three important lessons that I think any entrepreneur should know if they’re starting the kind of company they think will need funding.”
The three lessons Ben learned are:
1. Investors are just people too. “Investors are just regular people… and even though they have a really good opinion on things, they might be wrong. That was something that was really hard for me to swallow because I really looked up to all these people.”
2. If you need money and they’re the only person who can give you money, you have zero leverage. “There’s nothing you can do unless you hack that system and give them a reason that you should have the leverage. And those reasons generally are fear of losing the deal or the belief that this thing is just going to be so big that whether they give you money or not, you’re just going to be wildly successful.”
3. The future is unwritten. “People can tell you that you should be more technical. They can tell you that you’re in the wrong market. They can tell you all these things, and those things might be true, and you should assess them for yourself. But you shouldn’t take it on face because they could be wrong. And in the back of your head, you have to remember that for all the millions of dollars venture capital investors have made and for all of the IPO certificates on the wall, there are things that they passed on, and those are the things that actually haunt them at night. And if you can convince somebody that you just might be the one that’s going to beat the odds, you can be successful. And it’s a general attitude that I think is important, whether you’re recruiting or raising money.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2012)
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