Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Commerzbank $CBK has now outperformed the S&P 500 index more than 2:1 (in $) in the past 5 years https://t.co/sxKmv5F7OV
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Commerzbank $CBK has now outperformed the S&P 500 index more than 2:1 (in $) in the past 5 years https://t.co/sxKmv5F7OV
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Costco $COST shares are at 54x trailing EPS ($16.56) following FY24 results overnight
EPS grew 16.9% year-on-year in FY24
EBIT grew 14.4% https://t.co/Lvz1z5HMtm
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Costco $COST shares are at 54x trailing EPS ($16.56) following FY24 results overnight
EPS grew 16.9% year-on-year in FY24
EBIT grew 14.4% https://t.co/Lvz1z5HMtm
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harding Loevner on Bechtle $BC8 GR
Thesis: Bechtle, Germany’s largest provider of IT solutions, offers resilient growth by delivering value-added services in a highly competitive market
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/KnkE14zgAU
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Harding Loevner on Bechtle $BC8 GR
Thesis: Bechtle, Germany’s largest provider of IT solutions, offers resilient growth by delivering value-added services in a highly competitive market
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/KnkE14zgAU
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Rémy Cointreau $RCO at €214 at 2021YE
This gave market cap. of ~€11bn
Recurring Net Profit:
FY21 (ending 31-Mar): €144.6m
FY22 : €228.1m
FY23: €296.6m (record, arguably bubble)
FY24: €194.8m (€136.7m ex. temp. savings)
2021YE share price = 37x FY23 earnings
#neversell https://t.co/rsCju0nui4
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Rémy Cointreau $RCO at €214 at 2021YE
This gave market cap. of ~€11bn
Recurring Net Profit:
FY21 (ending 31-Mar): €144.6m
FY22 : €228.1m
FY23: €296.6m (record, arguably bubble)
FY24: €194.8m (€136.7m ex. temp. savings)
2021YE share price = 37x FY23 earnings
#neversell https://t.co/rsCju0nui4
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Darrell Issa has violated the STOCK Act AGAIN.
He just disclosed up to $180M of treasury bill trades that were made months ago.
He disclosed up to $175M of late trades yesterday.
Up to $355M altogether.
He will likely be fined a few hundred dollars. https://t.co/Btlqhlp3k2
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BREAKING: Representative Darrell Issa has violated the STOCK Act AGAIN.
He just disclosed up to $180M of treasury bill trades that were made months ago.
He disclosed up to $175M of late trades yesterday.
Up to $355M altogether.
He will likely be fined a few hundred dollars. https://t.co/Btlqhlp3k2
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Rightmove $RMV: Response to 4th $REA offer
346p cash + 0.0417 new REA shares = 775p
Plus 6p dividend paid out of RMV own cash
"the Board will consider the Latest Proposal"
RMV shares +0.4% to 667.6p https://t.co/PYhA9l6SQE
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Rightmove $RMV: Response to 4th $REA offer
346p cash + 0.0417 new REA shares = 775p
Plus 6p dividend paid out of RMV own cash
"the Board will consider the Latest Proposal"
RMV shares +0.4% to 667.6p https://t.co/PYhA9l6SQE
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Two weeks ago, I suggested $ASML is a great consideration for investment at $753💵
Since then, shares of $ASML have rallied +12.72% ✅
As I explained in the conclusion of the analysis:
“As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~7.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.87 (-5.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $33.07 (58.5% YoY)
2026E: $38.61 (16.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $38.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1158.30💵 … ~21.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $1119.69💵 … ~19.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $1081.08💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
27x P/E: $1042.47💵 … ~15.8% CAGR
26x P/E: $1003.86💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $965.25💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)
Given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the s[...]
Two weeks ago, I suggested $ASML is a great consideration for investment at $753💵
Since then, shares of $ASML have rallied +12.72% ✅
As I explained in the conclusion of the analysis:
“As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~7.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.87 (-5.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $33.07 (58.5% YoY)
2026E: $38.61 (16.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $38.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1158.30💵 … ~21.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $1119.69💵 … ~19.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $1081.08💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
27x P/E: $1042.47💵 … ~15.8% CAGR
26x P/E: $1003.86💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $965.25💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)
Given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the s[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® Two weeks ago, I suggested $ASML is a great consideration for investment at $753💵 Since then, shares of $ASML have rallied +12.72% ✅ As I explained in the conclusion of the analysis: “As you can see, $ASML appears to have…
hort-term 💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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