AkhenOsiris
Remarkable, Puru hedged here
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AkhenOsiris
$NVDA commentary from Fubon

There seems to be some additional delays in $NVDA B200 server. From Fubon:

"Based on our latest discussion with the supply chain, nVidia B200 is pushed out due to low yield in the CoWoS-L packaging process. This will delay the delivery schedule of GB200 rack system to 1Q25."

No idea how impactful this is, but worth noting imo. - Dr Vinnie Boombatz
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.63x
•10-Year Mean: 23.95x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.79%
•10-Year Mean: 4.12%

As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~16% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business

*Financials In Euros €*

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: €11.10B
•Long-Term Debt: €11.65B

$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 16.64x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.6%
•2020: 10.2%
•2021: 18.9%
•2022: 21.2%
•2023: 21.0%
•LTM: 19.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.5%
•2020: 12.8%
•2021: 28.9%
•2022: 28.0%
•2023: 26.7%
•LTM: 23.2%

$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the company’s financial efficiency

REVENUES✅
•2013: €29.02B
•2023: €86.15B
•CAGR: 11.49%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2012: €2.99B
•2022: €11.59B
•CAGR: 14.50%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: €6.83
•2023: €30.33
•CAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 499.59M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 25.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.3

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% more in EPS & ~16% more in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than (9.32%) the required growth rate:

2024E: €29.71 (-2.0% YoY) FY Dec

2025E: €32.86 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: €35.66 (8.5% YoY)

So, let’s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with €35.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:

22x P/E: €784.52💵 … ~14.9% CAGR

21x P/E: €748.86💵 … ~12.7% CAGR

20x P/E: €713.20💵 … ~10.3% CAGR

19x P/E: €677.54💵 … ~7.9% CAGR

18x P/E: €641.88💵 … ~5.4% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume that $LVMH will trade >20x for $LVMH to compound at an attractive rate given today’s assumptions — a multiple justified by its moat, quality, & growth rate

You’ll also notice that 18x - 20x earnings serves as a strong level of fundamental support, implying that investors buying today could have a strong margin of safety

Today at €597💵 $LVMH appears to be a strong consideration for investment

Yet, I’d still be inclined to buy in tranches, e.g. 1/2 the position at €597💵 & the other 1/2 if it trades for €547💵 (18x NTM estimates)

$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Calculating WACC and ROIC (Tutorial):

Is value created or destroyed? $AMT https://t.co/AzO4MflTtY
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Markwayne Mullin just disclosed a purchase of up to $50K of IQVIA stock, $IQV.

IQVIA is a pharmaceutical services company.

Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Health.

We'll be keeping an eye on $IQV. https://t.co/daEtLasj8T
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Stock Analysis Compilation #56 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)

52 free analyses from the best hedge funds & newsletters :
$GOOG $ASPI $ATKR $AZO $BIDU $BOMN $BOWL $ELY $CCI $COVN $UAN $EUSP $FTEL $GEHC $IBTA $LULU $MSG $META $NU $PLTR $PKST $PESI $PRAA $SDGR $SES $SOMO $SBUX $TCEHY $TRUX $UBER $ULTA $UPWK $MTN $VEEV $V and many more
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Pernas Research on Upwork $UPWK US

Upwork’s long-term growth story remains intact despite short-term concerns, with 70% upside potential driven by the continued rise in the freelance economy

(Extract from their initiation report, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/jVeqVFqi1D
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks Capital on Truxton Bank $TRUX US

Truxton’s undervalued wealth management business, with rapid AUM growth and high returns on equity, offers significant upside potential hidden within a community bank

(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/DMr14yly4i
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⁠Investing visuals
Elite Software Showdown: $PLTR vs. $NOW 👇🥊
Two top-tier software companies, both scoring over 50 on the Rule of 40*
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⁠Librarian Capital
Re: Philip Morris $PM selling Vectura $VEC at a loss

While the overall outcome was undeniably a poor one, comparing PM's Wellness & Healthcare revenues in 2020 (~$400m) and 2022 ($271m) overstated the amount of decline, due to Vectura one-offs in 2020

@helentbiz https://t.co/e3GAFHcR1Z
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